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HomePoliticsPMK's vote base among north Tamil Nadu's Vanniyars could be key for...

PMK’s vote base among north Tamil Nadu’s Vanniyars could be key for AIADMK-BJP alliance

Political analysts believe the AIADMK's new alliance is based on pure arithmetic, and will ensure the DMK-Congress don't have an easy run to victory.

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Bengaluru: With the death of both of Tamil Nadu’s stalwart leaders, J. Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi, the 2019 Lok Sabha election in the state was always going to be a very different ballgame from the past. On the evidence of the last few years, things were shaping up to be a cakewalk for the DMK and its re-formed alliance with the Congress.

But by forging an alliance with the BJP and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the ruling AIADMK is suddenly back in the game.

In 2014, without an alliance, the AIADMK on its own had won 37 seats, while the BJP and PMK had contested the polls together with other regional parties and won one seat each. But since Jayalalithaa’s demise in 2016, the party had begun to lose its voter base, thanks to the constant infighting between O. Panneerselvam and Edappadi Palaniswami, the formation of a faction by T.T.V. Dinakaran, nephew of Jayalalithaa’s confidante V.K. Sasikala, and the Palaniswami-headed state administration, which has been accused of being ineffective.

Political arithmetic

Analysts say the idea behind this alliance is pure arithmetic. The AIADMK had polled 44.9 per cent of the votes in 2014, while the DMK had polled 23.90 per cent. The BJP got 5.5 per cent of the votes, while actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK bagged 5.2 per cent and Anbumani Ramadoss’ PMK 4.5 per cent.

That means the new AIADMK-headed alliance would have bagged more than 54 per cent of the votes in 2014. Even with the expected fall in the AIADMK’s numbers, the alliance may just have enough to get over the finish line ahead of the DMK-Congress combine.

“The DMK is much weaker without Karunanidhi, and we are going to campaign based on our achievements in the last five years under the leadership of our PM Modi ji. People have seen what progress our country has made and they will want it in Tamil Nadu too,” said Thirupathy Narayanan, the BJP spokesperson in Tamil Nadu.


Also read: AIADMK and BJP announce poll alliance in Tamil Nadu, saffron party to contest 5 seats


Caste combination

The BJP enjoys support of Tamil Nadu’s Brahmins. Add to it the Hindu-Nadar vote in the Kanyakumari region and the AIADMK’s strong presence in the Hindu-Gounder belt in the western region around Coimbatore, and the alliance begins to gain ground. And that’s even without taking into account the PMK’s voter base among the Vanniyars of northern Tamil Nadu, spread in the Salem-Dharmapuri-Krishnagiri-Namakkal region.

However, one cannot forget the Dinakaran factor – he is said to control the votes of the Thevar community in the Madurai region, which is a traditional AIADMK vote bank.

Analysts’ view

“It is important to understand that through this alliance, the AIADMK, which had almost no hope, has managed to cobble up a decent chance to be a tough opponent for the DMK. This is nothing but a game of arithmetic,” said Sumanth C. Raman, a Chennai-based political analyst.

“The absence of a big face like Jayalalithaa has forced them to form this alliance. But one can only assess the impact of this alliance once campaigning begins.”

Another analyst, K.N. Arun, said the new alliance has ensured that the DMK will not have an easy run.

“The problem with the DMK was it did not want to give (PMK leader) Ramadoss a new lease of life. The PMK has not lost its popularity in its stronghold in northern Tamil Nadu, an area where the DMK hoped to gain ground,” said Arun.

The alliance is also being seen as a signal to all Jayalalithaa supporters who have been sitting on the fence till now to shift their allegiance back to the AIADMK and its allies.


Also read: After Jayalalithaa vs Karunanidhi, it could be Stalin vs Dhinakaran in Tamil Nadu


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