Lucknow: The Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress Friday delivered a major upset to serial turncoat Dara Singh Chauhan of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Ghosi bypoll, in the process exposing the eroding base of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) that had given call to its supporters to vote NOTA.
However, only 1,725 people voted NOTA in the 2023 bypoll, against 1,249 in the 2022 election. It means that only 476 voters went with the BSP’s call to press the NOTA, a far cry from the last election when the Mayawati-led party’s candidate had ended up with over 54,000 votes.
While Chauhan, who has, till now, changed parties five times, was reduced to 81,668 votes, SP’s Sudhakar Singh, an ex-MLA, won with 1,24,427 votes. The Congress had supported the SP candidate and the results have come as a big boost to Opposition alliance INDIA in Uttar Pradesh. This despite the BJP fielding its big guns for campaigning, including Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Deputy CM Brajesh Pathak, along with O.P. Rajbhar of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, a BJP ally.
While Chauhan had secured 42 percent votes in the 2022 election when he was with the SP, he could secure only 37.5 percent votes in the bypoll. BJP’s Vijay Rajbhar had come second with 33.5 percent votes in 2022. This time around, Sudhakar Singh secured 57 percent votes, about 15 percentage points more than what Chouhan secured as an SP candidate in 2022. Given that the BSP’s Muslim candidate, Wasim Iqbal, had secured 21 percent votes in 2022, the SP-Congress’ gains seem to have come almost entirely at the cost of the BSP in terms of Muslim votes as also from a section of Dalits, although some other factors, like the SP fielding a Thakur candidate, might also have made some difference.
Meanwhile, Chauhan’s habit of repeatedly switching sides — which earned him the tag of ‘dal-badlu’ (turncoat) — seems to have finally caught up with him, said political analysts, who view the BJP’s loss in the Ghosi bypoll as a cutting response to Chauhan and his politics of opportunism.
Speaking to ThePrint, Shashikant Pandey, head of department of political science, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, said, “SP candidate Sudhakar Singh has a good image among the public as he was an MLA in 2012. Chauhan’s dal-badlu image had sent a message that he was taking his own voters for granted. He left the BJP which made him a minister to join the SP but 16 months later, he left the SP too. Over time, voters also mature and make an independent judgement.”
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Dara Singh Chauhan’s history of switching sides
The Ghosi assembly constituency — a segment of the Ghosi Lok Sabha constituency presently held by BSP’s Atul Rai — was witnessing its second bypoll in four years. This came after sitting MLA Dara Singh Chauhan returned to the BJP, rejoining them 16 months after he had left the party in January 2022 to join the SP.
In 2019, too, a Ghosi bypoll was held following the resignation of BJP’s Fagu Chauhan, who resigned as MLA after being made the Bihar governor.
This year, on 15 July, Chauhan had resigned from the assembly membership. His resignation came two days before he joined the BJP in presence of deputy CMs Brajesh Pathak, Keshav Prasad Maurya and UP BJP state president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary on 17 July.
According to Local SP leaders, Chauhan was with the BSP first which sent him to Rajya Sabha as an MP in 1996, but after completing the four-year term, he switched to the SP and became a Rajya Sabha MP for the second time in 2000. Before the 2007 assembly elections, he switched to the BSP again when the Mayawati-led party had formed a government with full majority. However, in February 2015, he again switched to join the BJP.
‘No future for BSP in UP’
Along with its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank rallying behind the SP candidate in Ghosi bypoll, the result also hints that Dalit voters, a traditional votebank of Mayawati-led BSP, too, may be shifting to the SP in some parts of Uttar Pradesh, especially wherever the BSP doesn’t enter the fray, said analysts.
According to local SP leaders, of the total 4.37 lakh voters in Ghosi, Muslims constitute the maximum with 90,000 voters. There are about 60,000 Dalit voters, 40,000 Yadavs, 40,000 Chauhan voters and about 77,000 upper caste voters, including 45,000 Bhumihars, 16,000 Rajputs and 6,000 Brahmins.
“The result is a clear indication that the fight in UP remains between the BJP and the SP and there has been no split in the Muslim votes in Ghosi,” said Pandey. “With the BSP not fielding any candidate, Muslim voters seem to have voted for the SP enbloc. Coupled with the Yadav voters, the SP’s Muslim-Yadav combination worked in its favour along with some of the Dalit vote likely swinging to them. While it is too early to draw any inference and it has to be seen where the SC vote went, the Dalits have shown some inclination towards SP as well.”
He noted that Mayawati’s move to refrain from fielding a candidate suggested a “confused” style of politics despite having a loyal votebank.
“There doesn’t seem to be any future for the BSP in UP now. BSP voters are disheartened with Mayawati and the BJP has already made deep inroads in the non-Jatav and Jatav voters. However, Akhilesh Yadav too is working hard to win this vote bank and has formed an Ambedkar Sabha to woo Dalits along with making other attempts to strengthen and restructure the party organisation,” said Pandey.
He added that it was too early to comment on the performance of opposition alliance INDIA — which has been formed at the national level to combat the ruling NDA — since the Congress is not a major player in Ghosi and even most parts of UP now.
The Ghosi bypoll was the first bypoll held in UP after the formation of the INDIA and the Congress had officially extended their support to the SP in the bypoll.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
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