New Delhi: The political dynamics of Bihar have always played a crucial role in determining the course of national politics. Optics matter, and in this state, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has long been the key protagonist, adeptly navigating shifting alliances and interests to maintain his position and influence. Late deputy CM Sushil Modi had once said that Nitish “always keeps two windows open to balance his present alliance partner”.
The Bihar CM’s latest actions, including a meeting with opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav earlier this week — eight months after he broke his alliance with Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and joined hands with the BJP — has sparked considerable speculation about potential shifts in strategy and alliances ahead of next year’s assembly polls.
On the face of it, the meeting was about choosing the new information commissioner, Tejashwi being on the selection committee. But to drive home the point, Nitish, known for sending dual signals at a time, asserted Friday, when BJP president J. P. Nadda was in town, that he “made a mistake before but it will not happen again”.
Tejashwi, who will be embarking on his ‘Jan Abhar Yatra’ next week to galvanise party cadre and consolidate the support of the politically significant Kushwahas and other backward communities, told media persons that the conversation was about including Bihar’s 65 percent reservation decision in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution. When Nitish said the matter is in court — the Patna High Court had struck down the quota in June — Tejashwi urged him to pursue the matter legally.
The Bihar government had hiked reservation for Dalits, backwards and tribals to 65 percent based on the findings of the 2023 caste survey report. The RJD had challenged the HC’s decision to strike it down in the Supreme Court, which Friday issued notice to the Centre and Bihar government, but did not impose a stay.
Political leaders ThePrint spoke to say there’s a sense of déjà vu in the way things are playing out. In 2022, when Nitish met Tejashwi and RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav before parting ways with the BJP, they discussed the caste survey. Cut to 2024, and Nitish and Tejashwi discussed caste issues again, at a time when every political player in Bihar — from Chirag Paswan to Jitan Ram Majhi — is looking to consolidate backward communities’ support while Nitish is keen to protect his Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Mahadalits vote base.
When Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) was in government in alliance with Lalu’s RJD, Bihar did a caste survey. The CM had met INDIA bloc leaders before the Lok Sabha polls to discuss making caste census an election issue, but then joined the NDA. The elections changed Bihar’s political dynamics once again, with BJP failing to win an absolute majority and Nitish becoming a key alliance partner who can make or break the NDA.
The Centre has been doing everything possible to keep Nitish happy — from a Rs 60,000 crore bonanza for Bihar in the Union Budget, to announcing that the 2025 state polls will be fought under the CM’s leadership. In this backdrop, Nitish’s optics are not just aimed at the BJP, but also at his own party as its key leaders bat for maintaining strong ties with the BJP in a bid for a greater power share.
JD(U) chief spokesperson Rajiv Ranjan told ThePrint: “Both parties’ chemistry has improved, allocation for Bihar in the Union Budget has sent good messaging on the ground, and both parties are working on the development front. The meeting with Tejashwi should not be read into much.”
Even the BJP downplayed the meeting. Bihar BJP vice-president Sidharth Shambhu said: “It was an official meeting. Everything is fine between the two partners.”
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Balancing ‘identity’ and ‘alliance chemistry’
Speaking to ThePrint, a Bihar JD(U) leader said on condition of anonymity: “Those who know Nitish know he uses optics to send a message.”
The leader cited the example of Sanjay Jha’s appointment as the party’s working president in June and K. C. Tyagi’s “removal” as party spokesperson last week. Jha, known to have warm ties with the BJP and being one of Nitish’s most trusted lieutenants, is expected to keep the JDU-BJP alliance smooth. Meanwhile, Tyagi’s resignation as spokesperson followed his aggressive stance on several Modi government decisions, at a time when several JD(U) leaders are keen to maintain good chemistry with the BJP.
“Nitish has to protect the party not only from the BJP, knowing its past tricks, but also keep the party united knowing BJP’s ability to poach leaders. Nitish’s meeting with Tejashwi has done both the work of sending a message to the BJP but also his own leaders to remain in check to balance party identity,” the leader further said, but denied any possibility of Nitish making another U-turn as the Opposition has nothing more to offer than the Bihar CM’s post.
A JD(U) functionary meanwhile remarked that “earlier, many leaders used to speak against Nitish but that is not the situation anymore”.
“(Deputy CM) Vijay Sinha keeps working on both parties’ chemistry, nationally Sanjay Jha is there to coordinate with BJP. BJP has to run its (central) government till 2029 so there is no such threat like the 2020 ‘Chirag Model’,” the functionary added.
He was referring to Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Chirag Paswan’s move during the 2020 state polls to contest all seats where Nitish had fielded candidates, in what was seen as a bid to dethrone JD(U) as the senior partner in its alliance with the BJP. The JD(U) ended up winning just 43 seats, 26 less than what it managed in 2015.
The functionary, however, had a word of caution. “But why did the BJD lose in Odisha despite supporting the Modi government? We should always remember, if a tiger forgets to show its teeth, nobody in the jungle will fear it.”
A churn is coming?
Bihar BJP leaders say the next few months may bring with them a political churning in Bihar, with Chirag working on Dalit consolidation, and the upcoming launch of Prashant Kishor’s party. “Nitish will want funds to keep flowing for Bihar’s development and BJP has lost its upper hand in the alliance. But Nitish has not forgotten 2020 so he will keep testing the waters,” said one such leader.
Last week, another case of optics concerning Nitish played out when Home Minister Amit Shah met Chirag’s estranged uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras, who had resigned from the Union cabinet in March after his Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party was not included in the seat-sharing deal for the Lok Sabha election in Bihar.
The BJP, it is learnt, is skeptical about Paras’s future but see him as a potent force to balance its equations with Chirag. In the last one month, Chirag has aggressively cemented his standing among Dalits by opposing the Supreme Court’s sub-categorisation order and creamy layer observation. He was the first NDA voice to criticise the Centre’s lateral entry scheme, citing lack of reservation. He advocated for the Centre referring the Waqf Bill to a joint parliamentary committee. He even offered “moral support” for the Bharat Bandh called last month against the Supreme Court’s sub-quota order. The INDIA bloc, the Bahujan Samaj Party too had supported the bandh.
After meeting Shah in Delhi, Chirag’s uncle Paras said Amit Shah had assured that his interests will be protected in the assembly election. Even Majhi came out in support of Paras, saying, “He is in NDA and NDA will together fight the assembly election.”
A BJP source said: “Amit Shah’s meeting with Paras was more optics than substance to balance Chirag Paswan. Soon after the meeting, there were rumours of a split in Chirag’s party, and the latter called on Amit Shah and J. P. Nadda to clear his suspicions.”
Another BJP insider said Chirag is “ambitious and hopes to become CM one day, something his father could not do in his lifetime because of Lalu and Nitish. But unlike his father, Chirag has become cabinet minister in a short span of time which his father attained after much struggle”.
The insider added: “He is positioning to consolidate himself by articulating an aggressive stand on caste and social justice politics in order to be the chief claimant of the Dalit vote and dent Nitish’s Mahadalit base. But Nitish is a clever politician who always keeps tabs on others, particularly because BJP used Chirag Paswan to damage the JDU (in 2020).”
JD(U) sources said Nitish’s social justice messaging with Tejashwi was another bid to protect his Mahadalit base amid warring factions for Dalit votes.
(Edited by Gitanjali Das)
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