Imploding institutions, rebellion, economic impediments are what Modi govt is facing in run-up to 2019, similar to Manmohan Singh’s last months in office.
New Delhi: For the Narendra Modi government, the year before the 2019 general elections has been all about firefighting on multiple fronts — an uneasy cocktail of imploding institutions, rebellion, scam allegations, a combative opposition and economic troubles — ironically similar to UPA II’s last few months in office.
Crisis in judiciary
The year began with an unprecedented crisis in the judiciary — with four most senior Supreme Court judges holding a press conference against then Chief Justice Dipak Misra and raising the issue of assignment of cases.
The public outburst by justices J. Chelameswar, Ranjan Gogoi, Madan B. Lokur and Kurian Joseph led to the Congress raising the pitch and looking to move an impeachment motion against Misra, eventually rejected by Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu. This war was perceived to be as much against the Modi government as against former CJI Misra.
Also read: The revolt by four Supreme Court judges just made it easier for the Modi govt to step in
Cracks in alliance
A sour note is how the year started for the BJP, and that continues to linger. The Modi government battled pressure from key ally Telugu Desam Party (TDP) over the issue of granting special category status to Andhra Pradesh, eventually leading TDP to quit the NDA.
While it made no difference to the government’s comfortable majority in the House, it did ensure some bad press and poor optics — inability of a ‘powerful’ leader like Modi to keep his stock together.
Also read: TDP resolves to realign ahead of 2019, stand with united opposition against BJP
By mid-July, the government found itself facing a no-confidence motion moved by the TDP, and supported by the Congress, the CPI(M) and other opposition parties. The Modi government predictably sailed through comfortably in the vote, but not without the unnecessary stamp of having to face a no-trust vote — a rather jarring occurrence for a PM who claims to enjoy massive public support.
Rafale row, rising fuel prices & falling rupee
Soon enough, allegations over the Rafale deal started flying around, bringing the government under pressure. The Congress, led by party president Rahul Gandhi, raised the pitch to a new shrill note on the issue, sensing an opportunity to corner the government, even calling Modi a ‘thief’.
The BJP, however, believes the issue has little resonance on the ground and the PM’s credibility can’t be questioned, but there is little doubt that the whiff of a defence scam is hardly what the government needs in the year leading to polls.
Also read: Rahul Gandhi raises Rafale pitch, calls Narendra Modi a ‘gatekeeper for Anil Ambani’
To add to it, rising fuel prices and the falling rupee have made the Modi government even more vulnerable and given adequate ammunition to the opposition, particularly as these are issues that affect the common man.
The CBI feud
The brazen public infighting between director Alok Verma and special director Rakesh Asthana in the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), has been perhaps the biggest embarrassment so far, and Modi’s perceived proximity to Asthana has only made matters worse. The PMO was forced to step in, and the government was compelled to strip both of their charges.
Also read: War in CBI is hurting Narendra Modi’s PM-in-control image & BJP is worried
Last year of UPA II
Rewind to 2013 — the last year of the Congress-led UPA II government, before it was trounced at the hustings in 2014.
The UPA II government faced major embarrassment after it was forced to sack two of its senior ministers in May 2013. After reports emerged suggesting then railways minister Pawan Bansal’s nephew Vijay Singla had accepted a bribe from a Railway Board member to facilitate a lateral promotion, the opposition — then led by the BJP — attacked the Congress relentlessly, leading to Bansal’s ouster.
UPA II had a tryst similar to the one the Modi government is facing in the CBI feud. Then CBI director Ranjit Sinha told the Supreme Court that the agency had “shared” its status report on the probe in the coal allocations scam with then law minister Ashwani Kumar “as desired by him”.
He said that joint secretary-level officers from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) had also seen it, a damning statement for the Congress considering it was PM Manmohan Singh who held the coal portfolio at that time. Weeks of drama ensued and Ashwani Kumar was sacked by mid-May.
Just as the Modi government faces allegations of interference in the CBI, it was none other than the Supreme Court that censured the agency and the government in 2013. The apex court denounced the CBI as a “caged parrot” and “its master’s voice”.
Boxed into a corner on various fronts, the economic situation wasn’t helping the UPA II government much either. Second generation market reforms were not carried out in any concrete manner and foreign investment to the country dipped considerably. By the middle of 2013, the economy went into a tailspin.
The most unpleasant and unexpected of public embarrassments for the Manmohan Singh government, however, came in the form of a rebellion from within the highest echelons of the party. In September 2013, then party vice-president Rahul Gandhi dramatically tore off in full public view an ordinance to save convicted legislators from disqualification brought in by his own party’s government.
Gandhi dismissed the ordinance as “complete nonsense”, timing his outburst to when Singh was in the United States on a state visit.
While Modi, given his persona and popularity, has been used to setting the narrative, the past few months have seen his government lose its grip over the national discourse and narrative, much like Singh’s government had towards the end.
This is a reach to create a false equivalence. The author is conveniently forgetting that fuel prices are now coming down. Rupee is also strengthening. Though default of major infrastructure company remains a very important economic issue to be dealt with care. Judges issue is already forgotten as far as common voter is concerned. Regarding Rafale, nothing concrete has yet come out. It is only raining accusations without any proof. Hopefully the CAG audit report would close this issue once and for all. CBI issue is the real mess that BJP needs to come out of. Again a very sticky wicket. This in no way compares with collosal misgovernence of Manmohan Singh govt. Scams after scams with actual court cases,Terrible inflation, Policy paralysis, economy in shambles. No way its the same now.
The comparison is out of place. Narendra Modi has been facing similar attacks by Congress, activists and Media ever since he became CM of Gujarat. Remember opposition MPs sending a signed petition to USA asking them to deny him Visa.Ms Teesta fabricating cases against him.
But Modi as Shekhar says is of Tungsten frame that nothing sticks on him.
He will answer appropriately at right time of his chossing.
There is one major difference in the run-up to the two endgames: all the imploding, all the mayhem in Modi government is of Mr Modi’s OWN MAKING. Anarchy in the society at large too is of Mr Modi’s OWN MAKING — even if indirectly, by his inactions or non-reactions to them.
Dr Man Mohan Singh had “no hand” in anything that lead up to his last two years. That was the biggest problem — he had no control over anything ever. A brash Rahul Gandhi was tearing up papers in press conferences accompanied by a butter-faced Mr Makan (I forget his first name, I’m sorry). Dr Man Mohan Singh’s biggest mistake was that he didn’t resign when he saw he had no control. His second heart operation was the best excuse for him to bow out respectably. But no one knows why he just decided to hang on!
And now a similarity as the author rightly points out: even Mr Modi has lost all control, though he may not like to believe it. The Frankensteins he created are all fully independent breathing machines now.
As you sow, so shall you reap. In 2013, when Mr. Modi started preparation for 2014 election, he started embarrassing Dr. Manmohan Singh. He levelled all sorts of relevant or irrelevant charges against the UPA II. Now why Mr. Modi is afraid. Did he ever make any comments on the Rafael deal. In the present imbroglio CBI feud, he did not take the nation into confidence. The rising oil prices, falling rupee are few areas which they or their Ministers were knowing the truth but they levelled charges against Dr. Manmohan Singh.
Now only Mr. Rahul Gandhi is taking the crusade against Mr. Modi and his team. Kudos to him.