The Modi wave left every non-NDA political party, regional or national battered and devastated, with the exception of one and a half. M.K. Stalin’s DMK is the one. Andhra’s YSRCP we count as a half because its wagon is hitched halfway to the BJP anyway.
The rest, especially the Congress, were hit so badly, none has yet shown a strategy or route to recovery, or display a willingness to regroup. With one exception: Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party.
Let’s begin with the numbers of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in Delhi. Aam Aadmi Party was the worst sufferer as it emerged number two in just 23 of the 70 assembly segments, never mind that it had won 67 of these in 2015. Even the Congress succeeded in topping five, mostly Muslim-dominated segments. Congress — which was reduced to zero in the assembly in 2015 — came second in 42 of 70 seats. The end of AAP in Delhi was written on its walls.
Check out the change in the air. And we aren’t referring to air quality which a CSE (Centre for Science and Environment) study showed as having improved significantly. If you sniff the political air, you can feel three changes: One, that AAP is fighting back. Second, that for now the divided Delhi BJP is still unsure whether it wants to risk making Delhi a Modi versus Kejriwal fight, just in case. And third, that the Congress is almost back to 2015: Non-existent, no leader, no morale.
We are not yet saying that AAP is poised to win a second term. But they are in the ring, up on their feet, and ready to resume the fight. That is unlike the Congress, for example in any of the three states voting in the next couple of months, although it finished a respectable second in all in the Lok Sabha polls.
Other regional parties, YSRCP, K. Chandrashekar Rao’s TRS and Naveen Patnaik’s BJD, don’t count as they are mostly backing the BJP and to that extent have ceased to be opposition parties. Further, these weren’t demolished by the BJP like AAP in Delhi. Nor do they face another election against the BJP in the next six months.
Kejriwal’s turnaround is comprehensive. In the past, he and his party had made it a habit to mock Modi. He had infamously called him a ‘coward and a psychopath.’ After the results, we have heard nothing rude. Or, in fact nothing but polite compliments for the prime minister and his government.
Also read: Kejriwal is trying to be Delhi’s ‘Chhota Modi’. Now, we wait for the elections
On 21 June, he personally went to congratulate the prime minister, wrote a nice tweet afterwards, offered to cooperate with the Centre. Since then, he and his government have picked up no fight or argument with the Centre. The transformation of the peskiest street-fighters of Indian politics into obedient schoolboys has been as dramatic as that of the state of Delhi’s government schools under their government.
This isn’t weakness or defeatism. It is politics. Unlike the Congress, Kejriwal accepted the reality of today’s politics fully: At this point, nobody can afford to oppose or attack Modi ad hominem. His priority, therefore, is not to be seen as Modi’s enemy. He doesn’t want the Delhi voter to go to the booths in February choosing between him or Modi.
His retreat from the fight with Modi is total for now. He also does not want to fight on any national issue. Do note his immediate and ready support to the Centre’s big changes in Kashmir, including diminishing it into a union territory. There wasn’t a whimper of complaint, just compliments and support from AAP to the Modi government on this. Never mind AAP’s ‘core’ demand for statehood for Delhi. You can call it hypocrisy if you want to be judgmental about politics. But in real life, smart politics.
The party has launched a publicity blitz. All of it is over local issues and what the party is constructively doing about them, not complaining of not being allowed to work as in the past. From schools, to electricity, water, air quality, CCTV cameras, free bus rides for women, dengue, even free pilgrimages for senior citizens. Soft religiosity (not Hindutva) and hard nationalism are both in play.
The old legend of Shravan Kumar has been pulled out of Hindu lore of a dedicated son ferrying his aged parents on his shoulders for pilgrimages. And the schools have now added a course on ‘deshbhakti’ (patriotism) in their curriculum, including stories about familiar Kargil war heroes.
Simply stated, the post-May 2019 AAP won’t let this election become about Modi, nationalism or religion. It will ensure that it is on the same side as the BJP on all three. They want to fight the coming Delhi election essentially like a civic body, a mayoral election. This also means that the party’s national ambitions have for now been mothballed. Again, excellent politics.
In the introduction of Anticipating India, published in 2014, I had expressed a hope. That the three key characters in our politics: Modi, Rahul Gandhi and Kejriwal, will all evolve. “Modi towards moderation,” I wrote, “Rahul may shed some diffidence and Kejriwal may find some establishmentarian calm.” The first two, you know better. On the third, there is vindication for now.
If Kejriwal continues to build on this and wins a second term that still looks distant but no longer out of his reach, he would have proven another point (in the same 2014 book) right: He’s no comedian or maverick like Raj Narain who defeated Indira Gandhi in Rae Bareli in 1977, I had written, he’s a challenger of substance in the long run, a lambi race ka ghoda.
Also read: To use or not use Modi’s face against Kejriwal in Delhi polls. BJP can’t decide
Kejriwal has done incredibly good work in Delhi – Instead of getting up caught up in accusations & recriminations, its best to let your work speak for u
Good observation, Shekhar ji. However, this is not a new strategy for AAP. Arvind Kejriwal did the same before the previous assembly elections, with the slogan ‘Modi for PM, Arvind for CM’. It worked for him, because BJP either did not bother to or was not able to counter it. It is only after AK won the assembly elections that he started attacking the PM. He is merely going back to his previous strategy of ‘Modi for PM, Arvind for CM’. Lets see whether the BJP can come up with a way to counter AK’s strategy this time after failing miserably the previous time.
With in 4 years kejriwal partys vote share is down to 18% from 54% . His party has not won a single election after 2015 delhi assembly, deposit forfeit is a regular feature and outsiders with big money have taken the playoffs ordinary volunteers who were the base of his resounding victory in 2015.in a 3 party election 18% vote share will get him only 2-5 seats and nothing more
Its a known fact dat Kejriwal & Shekhar Gupta both are funded by China, Saudis & ISI to make India An Anarchist State.Both have tried their best to please their masters bt failed badly.Now Khangress is far away from d track, it becomes necessary for media fixer Shekhar Gupta to make Kejriwal a main rival to d ruling BJP & he is trying cunningly to make comparisons bw Modi & Kejriwal.Wt a Job Gupta;;?
Since you claim that you can see tomorrow, tell us Shri Gupta that just in case AAP comes back to power will they go back to their old, abusive stance against Modi?
I have a feeling that AAP won’t get such overwhelming majority. We can expect a raucous Vidhan Sabha in Delhi.
He has changed in the changed political atmosphere. But he has also lost his teeth. But if he has really benefited lower middle class by the development work, he should be elected again. But here there is competition between Modi and him on development of lower middle class and underprivileged..
The Print knows there is no opposition to BJP in Delh i& giving false image building exercise on Kejr i& AAP. Is Kejri really a street fighter? No, Kejri is just street opportunist.
Some of the points are correct. Kejriwal has shown himself to be more intelligent than people were starting to believe; the transformation is noticeable and is a shrewd move. It also reflects that he is surrounded by people capable of ‘sensing’, which is an important quality in politics. However, it is to be seen how much of his constituency has he lost in this process of trial and error because after all, his tantrums are only recent past. But as they say, public memory is short.
There is no doubt Congress is in pathetic state to face elections. But media is saying that none have right to attack Modi and his government’s wrong policies. If opposition cannot, media cannot, who will take on. When UPA was in Power mindlesy they were attacked. Now prices of essential are going up, but still none has shown the courage to share voices of common people. If Modi and his party cannot be criticise, why do we need media or election because all iz well?
Kejriwal found out to his misfortune , that he would be the ‘patsy’ in the poker played with BJP . So now he is now atleast not in the anti Modi camp , he has changed strategy , shows political maturity. But is that the start of a new fairytale for kejriwal and is it right to compare him with other political parties . Kejriwals true test will come when he loses the delhi elections and more of his AAP colleagues , that is when the mettle of politician is tested .Congress ,NCP without power and seeing no mirage in the near term are coming apart , the same fate awaits AAP as was witnessed in Punjab .And hence the story though correct is slightly premature .
Was expecting The Print to come to the rescue of AK n AAP coz you want to be devil’s advocate. How conveniently no mention of idiosyncrasies of AK for their style in last 3+ years of rule. How he openally created anarchy like situations. Had it been other way around (BJP) , you would have strongly stated that makeover is election stunt but not here. The portal n Shekhar needs to have a serious relook on its Editorial stand. God save the discerning ones.