The 2024 general elections in Pakistan have once again shown that the country’s army may be adept at tactics but is poor at assessing the mood of the people. Neither the generals nor their political partners like Nawaz Sharif gauged how people actually felt — tired of age-old dynastic politics and military intervention.
The results, in which Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-backed independent candidates have emerged as the largest group with 93 seats, overtaking the army GHQ-supported Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, must have shocked the generals. Many Pakistani anchors and commentators had expected the PML-N to secure over 100 National Assembly seats, which would have put it in a comfortable position to form the government. However, Nawaz Sharif’s party only managed to secure 75 seats, reminiscent of the army’s previous miscalculations, notably the 1970 elections, where Sheikh Mujeeb’s Awami League’s victory was unexpected.
The group of independent candidates without the PTI’s electoral symbol will not be in a position to form the government as the 1973 Constitution only allows a political party to do so. Furthermore, not being in Parliament as a party will deny the PTI the advantage of obtaining additional numbers of women and technocrats on select seats. There is also the possibility of these members merging with the Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslameen (MWM), a party with a single seat in the National Assembly. However, one cannot miss the signal the results have sent the army GHQ,which was all set to crown Nawaz Sharif as prime minister for the fourth time. The election results speak volumes about the people’s discontent with the army for mismanaging the country’s politics for years, particularly in overplaying their hand in dealing with Imran Khan.
In the days leading up to the elections, PTI supporters were left with a particularly bitter taste as they witnessed a series of cases being decided against their leader and decades of prison sentences. Though Khan has been granted bail in cases pertaining to the 9 May attacks on military installations, he will remain in prison because of other cases against him. Some of the returning officers of the Election Commission I spoke with in South Punjab talked about how even old women without formal education sought assistance at the polling stations to cast their vote in support of Qaidi Number 804 (Prisoner No 804, which is Imran Khan). Others cited the iddat case pertaining to Khan’s hurried marriage to Bushra Bibi, which left women feeling bitter and unhappy.
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Two narratives—and a message for Nawaz
But this was not the only signal the people wanted to send. The results are equally a message to Nawaz Sharif and his party for taking the people for granted. The PMLN supremo, who returned to Pakistan after four years, sat quietly at home, relying on his arrangement with the army chief as the main guarantee for his electoral success. Sharif not only started his campaign late (about 20 days before the elections) but also had little to say besides reminding people of how he stood up in the past and suffered.
While the Sharif clan won the largest number of seats in Punjab, they missed coming anywhere close to majority because they refused to recognise and accept the changing realities of Pakistan. The PML-N can still form the government, but the fact remains that the party suffered due to its inability to understand the anxiety and concerns of the young voter base(44.6 per cent voters are aged between 18-35) who are disillusioned with patronage politics that breed corruption and mismanagement.
Listening to Nawaz Sharif’s premature victory speech, one wonders if he or his party understood the changing trends in politics – Pakistani citizens will not be impressed by patronage alone even in a patronage-driven politics but give greater attention to those speaking to their emotions. The PML-N leader seemed stuck in his traditional political framework, still trying to attract public support,especially from the over 44 percent of young voters, by offering them laptops, educational institutions and jobs if his party formed the government.
This narrative did not go down well in an increasingly urbanised and young Pakistan, which seems to have responded much better to Imran Khan’s adept use of social media to convey a narrative that resonated with their emotions. The issue here is not whether the PTI leader was right or wrong in accusing the US of manipulating his removal or his 2018 election promise of turning Pakistan into a corruption-free country like Medina; the point is that such ideals appeal to the average Pakistani on the street,who has grown tired of lazy, traditional politics. Furthermore, the voter saw Khan as standing up to the army despite the fact that he was originally brought into power by the institution. So, whileNawaz Sharif withdrew from his earlier position of challenging the military, Imran Khan not only stuck to the narrative but was seen as someone being put through immense personal discomfort for hanging on to that narrative.
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No stability yet but priority has been established
In the backdrop of this sentiment, Nawaz Sharif would be taking a major political risk by trying to negotiate forming a government, as he has announced. His seemingly conciliatory speech, pleading supporters of all parties to come together and help him for the government so he could pull the country out of financial misery would not impress many, especially PTI supporters, who will in fact feel more irked. While a Sharif-led government may suit the army, and a weak coalition government might have always been part of its plan, one cannot rule out the potential for instability in days to come.
Forming a government will also require holding a handout to the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which has secured 54 seats. The PML-N likely manipulated results to prevent Bilawal Bhutto from winning the NA-127 seat in Lahore, as alleged by the PPP’s vice-president Sherry Rehman. Sharif will probably need help from the GHQ to negotiate a truce with the PPP to form a coalition. However, this does not rule out the possibility of Asif Ali Zardari, the PPP co-chairman, demanding at least three pounds of flesh instead of just one. This means that Zardari could even ask for his son Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari to be given the prime minister’s position, besides many other things.
At this juncture, three things are certain. First, Nawaz Sharif may not necessarily become the next prime minister. From Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari to Shehbaz Sharif or some other possible candidate – the options will remain open until a government is formed. Second, the process of government formation will neither be prompt nor smooth. Third, both the establishment and political parties in Parliament will have to take a serious relook at their Imran Khan problem. He is not likely to be freed from jail in the coming days, but he will have to be dealt with more gently, if stability has to be maintained.
From a regional and geopolitical standpoint, any efforts to build links with the US or India will need to slow down. Nawaz Sharif mentioned building ties with neighbours in his victory speech, which means talking to India is certainly on his and the establishment’s mind. But the issue will draw only negative attention if Pakistan’s own politics is not sorted out first.
Ayesha Siddiqa is Senior Fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College, London. She is the author of Military Inc. She tweets @iamthedrifter. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)