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Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress are walking into an Amit Shah trap in Maharashtra

An unnatural, unholy and unviable alliance will only help strengthen the BJP in the state.

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After breaking his conspicuous silence on government formation in Maharashtra, BJP chief and Home Minister Amit Shah said, among other things, “If the Sena thinks it can revolt and get the people’s sympathy, they really don’t know the public”.

Between the four main parties in Maharashtra, the BJP is the only one, which seems to be thinking of public perception. And, politics is all about public perception.

After the Maharashtra assembly election results on 24 October, the Shiv Sena took a maximalist position as people often do to invite a negotiation. It demanded an equal share of power, including having a Shiv Sena chief minister for half the term.

For many days, speculation was rife that the Shiv Sena would eventually settle for the deputy chief minister’s chair, along with a few plum portfolios. But the experts were soon proved wrong, as the Shiv Sena’s talks with Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) turned serious.

It’s now clear that BJP chief and Home Minister Amit Shah refused to negotiate, leaving the task to Devendra Fadnavis. All that was needed was for Amit Shah to visit Matoshree, the Shiv Sena family home in Bandra, and assuage the Thackeray ego. That is how he had sealed the Lok Sabha pre-poll alliance with the pesky ally.

For days after the 24 October results, the media kept speculating when Amit Shah would visit Matoshree. “In a peace move, Amit Shah may visit Sena Chief at Matoshree,” said one headline. “Talks only if Amit Shah visits Matoshree: Sena,” said another.

But Amit Shah stayed put in Delhi, leaving the Shiv Sena with no option but to talk to the NCP. In other words, Amit Shah left the Shiv Sena with two choices: stay on my terms or leave.


Also read: NCP, Shiv Sena and Congress finalise draft common agenda, farmers & jobs figure prominently


Amit Shah’s calculation

In public perception, the Shiv Sena, greedy for power, is not letting a popular Devendra Fadnavis become the Maharashtra CM. The people’s mandate was clearly for a BJP-Shiv Sena alliance government since the two parties had a pre-poll pact. And no, the public was not informed that Thackeray Senior or Junior would be the chief minister for half the term.

In public perception, the Shiv Sena, the NCP and the Congress are being ideologically dishonest by coming together for power, and not for public welfare. All the talk about how money is a big factor in Maharashtra politics, how it is one of the richest states and losing it is a setback for the BJP only strengthen the case that the Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress are coming together for a corruption merry-go-round.

It would be disastrous for the Congress’s already-poor image to support a party like the Shiv Sena, known for its history of communal violence. But Congress MLAs want to join this government, it is being said, and not just support it from outside. Why should they not have their share of the spoils?

If the BJP is made to sit in the opposition (along with two AIMIM MLAs) despite being the single-largest party in the Maharashtra assembly, it will seem like a setback for the party. But remember that Amit Shah has had ample time to prevent this, and has chosen not to.

If this government is formed, as seems imminent now, the question is how long will it survive. There will be constant bickering and nagging. Sanjay Raut will continue to entertain us with spicy Saamana editorials. Sharad Pawar will continue to be a man of intrigue. The desperate Congress party will do whatever it can to save its dhoti in the Mumbai floods until it falls into a manhole.

It will likely be Karnataka redux. When the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) managed to form the government against all odds in Karnataka, it was seen as a great tactical victory against the BJP. A defeat for Amit Shah. What came out of it? The BJP swept the Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka anyway, and the Congress MLAs ditched the ship to enable the BJP’s return to power in the state.


Also read: Panga with Sharad Pawar has cost the BJP dearly in Maharashtra


Anti-BJPism

An alliance of two couldn’t survive in Karnataka. Here, it is a khichdi of three in Maharashtra.

Let us presume they manage to complete the term. That will give the BJP a good five years to play opposition, slap corruption allegations on all three parties, with more than a little help from the CBI, the ED, the CBDT and other allies.

The BJP will use this time to expand the party to try and win the 2024 elections in the state on its own, both Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha.

If the government falls — or there is no government formation and President’s rule gives way to snap polls — that’s even better for the BJP. It will be able to tell the public, look, these are the people responsible for the political instability. Look at these greedy people denying the BJP the people’s mandate.

In Indira Gandhi’s time, opposition politics came to be known as anti-Congressism. It didn’t succeed, and succeeded only briefly when Indira Gandhi’s regime carried out mass sterilisation drives.

Like anti-Congressism, the anti-BJPism of drawing-room opposition leaders won’t succeed because they think politics is about negotiations in the corridors of power, about who gets what portfolio.

This unnatural, unholy, unviable alliance will only help the BJP, in Maharashtra as well as nationally, because politics is about public perception and public perception alone.

That is how the BJP may be able to finish off the Shiv Sena in just a few years. (Some say, this is also Amit Shah’s strategy to weaken Devendra Fadnavis.)


Also read: Sena-Congress ‘friendship’ goes back 50 yrs — a story of helping each other grow in Mumbai


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139 COMMENTS

  1. Perhaps it’s true that the BJP has a flawed outlook to governance that may hurt the economy, but the truth is no one can really tell what’s likely to happen. If the hodge-podge zombie coalition had come to power, it would leave so many doors open to corruption through coalition politics. How then would Maharashtra and India progress? This makes your overly apocalyptic worldview look incredibly ridiculous and you’re general view appear biased.

  2. Being a maharashtrian, we know how greedy BJP is and what they did with Shivsena for last term. It’s the same thing which is why they are less in number this time

    • They are less in numbers because they contested from less numbers of seats as compared to the last election. Their strike rate this year was a massive 70%.

    • They are less in numbers because they contested from less numbers of seats as compared to the last election. Their strike rate this year was a massive 70%. They might not be perfect but they know the politics to develop India better.

    • Being a maharashtrian, we know how greedy BJP is and what they did with Shivsena for last term. It’s the same thing which is why they are less in number this time.

  3. These cronies like ncp+cat Sena+Inc are always looters. Pawar’s praise can only happen in India ,he would have been hanged in China and would have been jailed long back in Pakistan. Metro rails all over is a gift of BJP. Francis provided corruption less State Government first time in history. I proudly say I am Modi bhakt till 2029 at least. Modi ji is voted by 44-45 crores voters who would REPEAT in 2024 too. Heinous family dynasty of Congress has nothing to do with the country. Please DEVELOP COUNTRY BHAKTI.please. Bharat Mata Ki Jay.

  4. The article is absolutely biased and the views of the author are polarised. Anti BJP has been politely dubbed as anti national. It’s one thing of you to claim amit shah is your polity god but other to publish it. Corruption is very very prevalent at this moment in the bjp era. In fact it’s looting from both ends. White through taxes whichbare recklessly implemented and then the bribe factor is continued without any interference. Kindly stop this non sense. It’s not just ED, the attempt is to first buy these people, failing which they use these threats.

  5. Pls note that at least 20 MLAs elected from BJP are ex congres, ncp, shivsena candidates. In western Maharashtra big names from BJP have lost elections after Modi, Shah and Fadanvis held rallies.
    It is also important to note in election even if Shah repeated that Fadanvis will be CM, Uddhav Thakare also repeated that CM will be from Sena. So it means that there was no leader finalized, and people have also voted for Sena CM.
    Why people did not vote BJP as they did in Loksabha just 4 months back. One of the aspect is poor governance in state. Kolhapur crisis mismanagement after heavy rain is one example. Every political party should introspect and deliver results, it’s hard to believe that Pawar or Shah’s political moves will change ground reality, people will not vote candidates if they don’t deliver and are ethical.
    One should also note that Why posts like CM, Deputy CM, Revenue minister have so much of importance for every party……. Maharashtra is going thru big crisis at this moment and every political party including BJP is running after malaidar posts in cabinet delaying government formation. That is why people are voting for NOTA.

  6. Balasaheb had called Congressmen ” ZIGRAS ” bowing to Italian lady Sonia Gandhi. Udhavji had called both Sharad Pawar & Rahul Gandhi corrupt & decoits in Pre- election campaign & had displayed book giving an account of corruption done by these two parties.
    Was it right for Udhavji to join hands with Congress & NCP ?
    This time with 50:50 formula in place Shiva Sena would have got 18 Ministries which had never happened before.
    People voted for BJP -SS keeping in mind work done by Modi govt. at center in last 5 years :
    1) Implementing OROP for difference personnel in first 6 months of 2014 BJP rule.
    2) Implementing GST concieved by Congress but never implemented in 10 years of UPA rule.
    3) Gathering World opinion in Favour of India which led to no retaliation from Pakistan after Balakot attack & release of Squadran leader Abhinadan from Pakistan in week’s time.
    4) The list of major Achievements in long
    In in present Modi 2.0 three major decisions done are : Implementing Teen Talak, abolishing article 370 , and Ram Jammu Bhumi issue.
    I feel Udhavji has made a BLUNDER by joining hands with known corrupt parties – NCP & CONG

  7. The article is skillfully drafted by Modi Bhakts and the contents are of no relevance , in fact if this coalition survives from their differences and performs at par , the things will change entirely for BJP . The curse of unemployed and recession has been casted upon public by implementation of wrong decisions by BJP ..Economy is on ventilator and progress is just in articles manufactured by paid media .
    In fact public is fed up of everyday ranting of kashmir and pakistan , and are now allergic to fake propaganda of foreign investments as we have witnessed the true picture of Vibrant Gujrat , tons of companies were suppose to start their organisation in gujrat …I cant see even few in the state …. the roads that were left to be built in 2014 are still in same status …
    Public are more sensitive and unsecured right now about their survival without income , So all the best to Pawarsaheb and company for bringing some respite in Maharashtra …….
    Underestimating Pawarsaheb & Sonai Gandhi is itself an example of arrogance of BJP ………
    CONG + NCP + SS = HOPE FOR SURVIVAL

    • Pawar is not a Saheb anymore, he is afraid of fate like chidambaram, abt forming a government, if they were capable, they would have already claimed it,

  8. This article is another attempt at creating an aura of invincibility around Amit Shah. He goes kaput & these cheerleaders in guise of journos say he planned it!! It is a nonsensical argument after Arunachal, Goa, Kashmir(PDP) & Karnataka that public perception will hurt. How come it ll knly hurt parties other than BJP.?

  9. Instead of spreading such foolish news try to cover the other important issues which our country is facing now like economic slowdown, lowest GDP ever, highest unemployment rate in the history and so on. But you people can’t dare to bring it on your portal as you are busy to divert people from real problems. Anyways nobody is full enough to understand real concerns and people from maharashtra never tolerate arrogant people and they don’t need your foolish articles.

    • Why do you waste your time in reading and commenting my friend. There is bombay times, insta stories, snap chats and gossip magazines.. people still read it and watch ekta kapoor soaps… its okay for people to write what they want, they didn’t take your time to write the content… Pls have some tolerance and secularism.. hehe

  10. Kuch bhi….Amit Shah and fadanvis trapped in their own plan…they are telling lies now..people of Maharashtra will teach Lesson to orogant BJP leader

  11. All good things & all bad things comes to an end- Genius Charlie Chaplin, all speculations is a reflection of human mind. Like pre poll prediction. One thing is dam sure ‘Power hunger’ as a normal voter people feels pure betreayal as pre poll manifesto & alliance was different,

  12. Fully paid article… Writer doesn’t know a bit about Maharashtra and it’s people… Shivsena responsible for communal violence???? From where all its coming??? The print needs.to clean up this shit…. Can’t use the words he deserves here.

    • Bhaiya, zara 1993 baat kar rahe hai article waale. Mr. Balasaheb was great leader and was always supportive of bjp tactics and he truly believed in Hindu Rashtra… Shiv Sena is an aggressive party and in history things happened

  13. Sharad Pawar is Sharad Pawar , till now nobody knows or predict what will be his move and who will be his target. In all the episodes he has acted in the past he is never declared as culprit and punished but some one or the other faced the bullets . So I fill the persons commenting should wait & watch the scenario going on because the sufferers are never the politician, but the helpless people who are forced to live in such circumstances

  14. We hope good governance in MAHA with powerful opposition like bjp which will be trying to hunt everytime for everypoint which may make three party coalition as good conglomerated ,a good example to a nation.

  15. It’s very sad to see Balasaheb hard work and love for Maharashtra, moving towards hunger for power.
    Mr. Raut saying we are fulfilling dearm of balasaheb, Saheb never wanted to compromise on Hindutav, he never move out of mathoshree, but hunger of uddhav, have made him to displease balasaheb.
    Some one pls ask Mr. Raut does balasaheb will ever compromise on hindutav

  16. The present political dispensation has to be defeated one state at a time. They have ruined the country with their policies.
    We have to hope that the SS/ INC/ NCP manage to stick together and give a stable and honest government. If they show compassion for farmers, residents of Mahul, the poor who dont have clean drinking water , regulate vegetable and food prices by eliminating middlemen… Solve the flooding problem, improve all roads… And show complete transparency in everything they do….Noone will be able to get rid of them for 25 years
    We gave the BJP 5 years we can see where we stand today. The cow’s life is more important than a human life. We are told what to wear, what to eat, what to say… Sad to say ,we have lost our freedom.

    • There is nothing like teust of 2.5 yrs or ao. If u are being scolded in bad bad words since day 1, still u will go foe it? Shivisena was alrwady prwparwd to cut thw ropea and go with ncp. This is wxacrly whT for Balasaheb fought for whole life. Shivsena will be a bery bad loser. NCP supremofinishwd Shivsena in a single steoke. Raut the fool will destroy the party for sure.

  17. Sharad Pawar has done this jumla to avoid getting arrested for dawoods connections …..about Uddhav Thakrey less said the better ….all three dynastic parties getting together is good learning for common voters …..benakab ho haye saaare….BJP tried Congress formula of poaching NCP and Congress leaders before elections and failed miserably….hope they learn the lesson….it was slap to Devendra Fadnavis for political arrogance…..now coming to shivsena ….after passing away of Balasaheb Thakrey they had resurgence in Maharashtra because of only Modi wave…we voted for PM Modi not faceless candidates of Shivsena….they will soon be a minor force like MNS in few years and people will remember Sanjay Raut as person who single handedly destroyed the party formed by late Balasaheb Thakrey. NCP and Congress will cause massive corruption in state and even if the alliance lasts all projects would be delayed, there would be muslim appeasement and lawlessness.

  18. Uddhav Thakrey is NO leader. That is why he is running after NCP and CP. Bal Thakrey never went out of Matoshree. He will meet his Waterloo soon.

  19. Sanjay Raut will surely entertain everyone as he is the DIGVIJAY SINGH of SHIVSENA. This unrealistic & greedy alliance of SS-NCP-CONG, known for its corruption in the past as well, will push Maharashtra behind by at least 10 years. It is really unfortunate for us, being a MUMBAIKAR & belonging to MAHARASHTRA.

  20. This drama,One cannot rule out the possibility that Pawar – Shah have orchestrated this. Pawar has been given breathing space and time from ED. By this Alliance, Congress & SS are ultimately going to be biggest losers. Congress will lose face in All India level & SS anyways will be on the way of Raj Thackeray a party & greediness would sputter all our to increase the shame. All the Best

  21. The article is trying to depict Shah as Whole And Sole of Indian politics. But he is no more than a baniya with a great purchasing power in horse trading. His game has proved futile in Maharashtra. RSS think tank is now sleepless and trying to do some firefighting.

    • Please. Keep thing in this manner about amit shah, RSS, BJP. Good. RSS BJP plans are all long term irrespective of present road blocks like the present predicament s.. Aim is to make India strong sustainable, self reliant and clear the way for unhindered growth.. No where there is a plan to make money for self or any family.. So gentleman think what you want to think…. The action will always be to uncluter the mess created by history.. Jai bharat.

  22. One cannot rule out the possibility that Pawar – Shah have orchestrated this. Pawar has been given breathing space and time from ED. By this Alliance, Congress & SS are ultimately going to be biggest losers. Congress will lose face in All India level & SS anyways will be on the way of Raj Thackeray a party & greediness would sputter all our to increase the shame.

  23. 8 out of ten people’s in Maharashtra and across the county are talking against the BJP for its pathetic governance. They have fooled the people systematically. They have used money and muscle power to get in power again in 2019 for Vidhan Sabha and Loksabha. So what kind of public perception and peoples mandate is Amit Shah talking about? Only option he has is CBI, ED and Income Tax to over through the Maharashtrat Government will form without BJP. And he is expert in that. If he has such great respect in people’s mandate and public perception then what he has done to Manipur, Meghalaya, Goa and Bihar??

    • rajeshwar G. WHSAT ABOUT THE BIGGEST CONFIDENT DECIDION ABOUT 370 AND 35A …TRIPLE TALAQ AND even ram mandir bcoz they came in power….and listen to vandana who spoke about Kashmiri pandit the Hindus life under your British ideology Congress

  24. The article may be the fact of the future .
    But still not yet. Let’s see . What happens.
    All power hungry characters end in doom.
    What is the best . We will never know.
    Which combination is good for the country state. Dont know yet. Every thing is Passing.
    But We hope for the best . The culture of our country and democracy has strong foundations.

  25. It is going to be interesting to see how this alliance is going to work. If Shivsena chooses Aditya Thakare as CM candidate how people like Ajit Pawar , Balasaheb Thorat Prthviraj Chavan, Chagan Bhujbal and other going to accept & respond.If somebody else whether if will be accepted by SS MLA’s. and remote control governance will start.If that is the case though name sake SS will have CM and NCP Congress ministers will start behaving as CM.CM will remain like scarecrow.Maharashtra will become laughing stock every sector.Remeber congress MLA have not hot elected on party’s image or ideology but their own credential and may go anywhere. I still feel if there would have been no rebellion in BJP /SS they would have easily crossed 220 nos.It costs very much for the alliance.

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