Putting months of speculation to rest, the United States House of Representatives passed a combined $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific last week, after which it was finally signed by President Joe Biden.
Mired in domestic politics between the ultraconservative Republicans and liberal Democrats as the US gears up for presidential elections in November 2024, the aid package had been lying in spirals of uncertainty, rejected twice by the House, where the Republicans are in majority. The lion’s share of the bill, amounting to nearly $61 billion, goes to Ukraine, followed by $26 billion for Israel, and then $8.12 billion for the Indo-Pacific.
Ukraine is relieved at this long-awaited news, for the country has been battling an excruciating ammunition shortage in its long-standing war against Russia. Capitalising on the labyrinthine decision-making process of Western democracies, Russia, meanwhile has finally won Avdiivka in Ukraine, its second win after Bakhmut in 2023. It is now aiming to take Yar Chasiv by 9 May, Russia’s Victory Day that commemorates Soviet win over Nazi Germany in 1945. Moscow has also been overwhelming an outgunned Ukraine through a barrage of missile attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure targets, making it harder for Kyiv to stay put. Ukraine would have most likely lost the war by the end of 2024, if not for the new aid package that offers some hope. But the relief is anything but permanent.
Team Volodymyr Zelenskyy realises this could be the last significant package from the US until the elections, after which the fate of America’s role in international security hangs by a fragile thread in the hands of impending MAGA — Make America Great Again — enthusiasts. In that case, while presidential candidate Donald Trump may not cut off aid to Ukraine completely, he could reduce it drastically. Ukraine’s pushback against a far bigger adversary has been contingent on US military assistance so far. The premonition around what happens when the $61 billion is exhausted is heightened by whether or not Europe’s desperate efforts to Trump-proof the continent and bolster Ukraine’s war efforts would rise to the occasion.
Also read: Europe is Trump-proofing Ukraine on 7 counts. NATO is latest to join the pursuit
Strained security assistance
The Biden administration first started preparing this bill toward the end of 2023. By then, the crisis in West Asia had already grown to massive proportions, and American lawmakers were torn between support for Ukraine and Israel while maintaining a strategically relevant posture in the Indo-Pacific. Biden negotiated to close southern borders to convince Republicans to support fresh military assistance for Ukraine. The latter, however, soon changed track to not let Democrats get away with the fruits of closing borders, an integral part of the Republican political agenda.
Biden, once more, pushed back by linking the aid for Israel and Taiwan (both of which enjoy bipartisan support) with that for Ukraine, which doesn’t get much favour from the MAGA group.
Finally passed by the House, the Senate approved the package containing four bills by 79 to 18 votes late Tuesday night. Apart from security assistance for three flashpoints, the package also contains a bill on confiscating Russian assets for Ukraine, an unprecedented step in its own regard.
The aid will boost the order backlog of American weapons maker TX Corporation and other major companies that received government contracts such as Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman. It means that almost half of the total military aid will go into replenishing the already spent stocks of the US army.
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Too little too late
The lack of ammunition in Ukraine has changed the pattern of warfare in East Europe. Pressed with the delay in replenishments, Kyiv has been forced to fire only 2,000 rounds for many months now. While European countries have attempted unprecedented changes in their defence industries to make up for the shortfall, the first batches will not arrive before the end of 2024.
The only credible plan until then is Czech President Peter Pavel’s deft brainchild to purchase 8,00,000 shells from outside of Europe. With finances in place for it, deliveries could be around the corner. It is worth noting that despite the delays, European countries are closer to supplying Ukraine with the much-needed ammo. American defence industries will be able to supply Kyiv with 1,00,000 artillery rounds per month only by the end of 2025.
However, compared to the paltry 2,000 per day that Ukraine is firing now, barely sufficient to sustain its defences, the shells committed by the EU and the US will be a giant leap forward. That said, by plausible calculations, Ukraine will still be firing only 2,400-2,500 rounds until the end of 2024. Until then, months of travail await Kyiv as it struggles to hold ground and repel Russia’s increasing attacks on its critical infrastructure alongside the civilian targets.
Outgunned, outmanned, but not unnerved
To compensate for the shortfall, Jack Detsch recently argued in FP that the US could supply Ukraine with $500 million in artillery-fired cluster munitions, which are four to five times more explosive than conventional 155 mm shells. But cluster munitions remain controversial.
The real challenge before Ukraine is how to launch offensive actions this year with little ammo at hand and a shifting balance at the battlefront.
Upon connecting other dots from weapons supplies, a pattern does emerge that adumbrates Ukrainian offensive strategy, if at all. Immediately after the passing of the bill, it surfaced that the US had secretly sent long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. Dabbling with medium-range missiles so far, the Biden administration had withheld the deliveries of the weapons lest escalation skyrockets. These were discreetly included in a previous aid package worth $300 million released in March 2024 and were delivered a month later.
Ukraine, on its part, almost immediately launched an offensive, using long-range missiles for the first time to target deep inside Crimea. Days later, a second attack came in Berdyansk in the Zaporizhzhia. This time, the US has sent not only long-range missiles but also cluster munitions for the ATACMS.
Additionally, it is likely that the F-16s would be operational by July 2024. Those are expected to offset the shortage of air defences like Patriots, for which Ukraine has been imploring its Western partners following Russia’s launch of three massive airstrikes on critical infrastructure. While dozens of Patriots have been identified, only one has been promised by Germany so far.
From the West’s perspective, the above posits a combination of strategies to allow a beleaguered Ukraine to hold ground and generate pressure on Russia even when it is likely to remain outgunned until the end of 2024 at least.’
Apart from artillery, the next big challenge for Ukraine is to mobilise enough troops. While Zelenskyy has recently signed a new bill on mobilisation, its ground impact is too limited to make an early assessment.
For Russia, this window presents the most credible opportunity to win the war. By most estimates, the Russian war economy is on track to produce 3.5 million rounds in 2024 and perhaps more as it enters 2025 before its capacity gets maxed out. That will also be a time when Western supplies will start pouring into Kyiv. Therefore, it is logical to extrapolate that if Russia is not able to exploit this window, it will further get sucked into an endless war. The strategy to wait for the US to abandon Ukraine has not really worked as Moscow desired. Kyiv’s sustained attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet and increasing drone attacks on its power plants and oil depots have had a detrimental impact as well.
No matter which way one looks at it, the war is far from over and will enter a new phase starting at the end of this year. While it has now become a battle of industrial capacities, at a fundamental level, it remains a battle of nerves.
The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)
Why are you cheer leading for Russia? Unless you r aiming for some Russian medals or job, you are a moron. Any one following the war already know most of what u have said. But what people, including u it seems, fail to understand is the bigger picture.
People supporting Russia think of it as an ally of India. But it is a way bigger ally of China. China is directly supporting it. North Korea, Iran, China are the main allies of Russia. If Russia wins, all these authoritarian states, particularly China, will be significantly emboldened. An emboldened China is the worst thing for India. It will then proceed to assert or even invade Taiwan and India. I believe it will test India first. As fatigued and annoyed west might pass it on India. Many western countries are already annoyed by India, a democracy supporting a despotic Russia.
And when China will come for India, all your military expertise will be of absolutely no use. So India should cheer for weaker and suppressed, Ukraine.
Vajpayeeji had once told the Editor that it is always possible to start a war but very difficult to judge when or how it will end. A war not only of nerves but of mutual assured attrition. This is how empires exhaust themselves.