Ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and not Priyanka, faces a bigger challenge.
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s much-anticipated plunge has definitely brought in a freshness in the political theatre.
But whether the freshness would prove to be a game-changer or not will be seen only after the election results are out. What nobody can deny is that she has jolted the conventional wisdom and the jaded political debates.
She could be the opening batsman for the Congress, the way Sunil Gavaskar was for India in the West Indies tour five decades ago. She can score a century, or a double century and become a star. Even if she is not the match-winner, her role of an opener, having faced the BJP’s bowlers, can’t be dismissed easily!
And so, ahead of the crucial Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and not Priyanka, faces a bigger challenge.
Also read: Priyanka Gandhi Vadra: The princess without the crown
In a league of her own
Most so-called weapons to stall Priyanka’s entry have been overused and rendered useless.
She could not be ridiculed by calling her ‘dumb’—the equivalent of Pappu, a pejorative once used for her brother and Congress president Rahul Gandhi.
She could not be condemned as a ‘ruthlessly ambitious’ or ‘power hungry’ leader. Though she is often compared with her grandmother Indira Gandhi, no political analyst has seen in Priyanka any trace of authoritarianism.
She could not be labelled a ‘foreigner’, or criticised for ‘not knowing Hindi’—as her mother Sonia Gandhi was. She is neither seen as the ‘Lutyens’ elitist’ nor as the globetrotting person with no roots.
Given there were no chinks in Priyanka’s armour, during last few years, the rumour mills in Delhi have suggested that she was moody. Some have even tried to corner her over husband Robert Vadra’s alleged financial irregularities.
And yet, her definitive political foray became so sensational and at once hyper-dramatic because it provided a refreshing change in today’s claustrophobic political environment.
Also read: Priyanka Gandhi’s success in UP will be Modi’s success
What propelled Priyanka foray
In the past few months, panel discussions on primetime debates had progressively become jaded and the headlines exceedingly irrelevant.
The newspapers—and despite there being so many—resembled one another so much that reading them added very little to our information. Of course, there were a few notable exceptions. Perhaps these are subjective assertions.
Yet, the media practically manifested the political fatigue that had set in. The only relief from this fatigue, it appeared, was the speculation of ‘numbers’ that would decide the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls.
However even in that, the figures for the BJP (read Modi) fluctuated only between 150 and 200. So it is just a matter of 50 seats, and leading with this number, Modi cannot become Prime Minister again. On the contrary, at 180 or 200, he can manoeuvre to win the ‘confidence vote’ by winning opportunist friends.
These friends could come from the same crowd that gathered in Kolkata to respond to West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s appeal. Offers of deputy prime ministership, important cabinet berths, or even cajoling can be the means to the end. Once the ‘confidence vote’ is won, it could be smooth sailing, or let us say this could be the plan B or Plan C of the Modi Brigade.
And such tiresome political permutations propelled the entry of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra the Congress’s wild card.
Also read: Sibling support, not sibling rivalry behind Priyanka Gandhi joining Rahul’s Congress
Congress’s Act East policy
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra could have chosen Delhi as her entry point replacing Congress leader Ajay Maken who made way for Sheila Dixit, or she could have entered the Rajya Sabha like a political star.
She could have become the ‘working president’ of the party to help/assist her brother, to reduce his national burden.
But Rahul chose her as in-charge of Eastern Uttar Pradesh and gave the less tumultuous Western Uttar Pradesh to party colleague Jyotiraditya Scindia.
That was of course upon Priyanka’s suggestion or perhaps her acceptance—indeed, the most difficult assignment.
The timing also is crucial. A few days ‘after’ Akhilesh and Mayawati sealed the formidable Bahujan Samaj Party-Samajwadi Party alliance and following the three stunning victories in the Hindi heartland-in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi.
Had Priyanka entered the political arena before these assembly elections, the victory could have been attributed to her ‘charisma’ and not Rahul’s aggressive campaign.
Had she joined active Congress politics when Rahul was literally in the dumps, reviled and ridiculed, that would have been for her brother’s political future—end of story.
It is obvious that such factors have been minutely scrutinised by the Congress’ first family, before Priyanka’s plunge. The detractors from the Sangh Parivar or from the BSP, the media critics of the dynasty or Vadra’s deals, will surely be looking at some faux pas so as to mount the offensive on her.
But they will have a logistic problem. They will have to target her, not Rahul and that would give Rahul some operational space.
Remember issues like the National Herald controversy are unlikely to stick on her.
Also read: By choosing Modi & Yogi’s turf, Priyanka signals she’s a dynast with a difference
Then and now
Will her entry be a game changer? Sample a few non-analogous but rather relevant comparisons:
1. Soon after former Prime Minister and Priyanka’s grandmother Indira Gandhi declared elections in January 1977, after the 19-month Emergency, most people believed that she will win.
But within a fortnight, leaders Jagjivan Ram, Hemavati Nandan Bahuguna and Nandini Satpathy broke from the ruling ranks and formed their own party, Congress For Democracy (CFD).
The atmosphere then was claustrophobic, and one of fear psychosis—much like India in 2019. There was a similar fatigue about the PM at that time and her younger son Sanjay Gandhi.
The media in general was non-confrontational but many analysts agree that the political equations, particularly in North India, changed radically in 1977, making Janata Party a winner!
2. The Janata Party had found itself in a gridlock within two years of being in power. The political discourse was jaded and there was no way out. But Raj Narain’s rebellion within the party, under Charan Singh’s leadership, changed political situation and six months later, the election saw Janata Party’s rout. One could also say that but for V.P. Singh’s rebellion confronting Rajiv Gandhi in 1987, it was unlikely that the Congress would have suffered a shock defeat, from 414 seats to about 197 in 1989.
Note that, so far, there is no open revolt in the BJP but the game changing arrow can strike from anywhere—given India’s political history.
The unexpected and dramatic, with the freshness of personality, may bring about cathartic change. It is not necessary that the Congress should win a staggering number of seats to prove such a change.
It is enough to put the so called ‘invincible’ forces on the defensive—and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s entry has done exactly that!
The author is a former editor and Congress member of Rajya Sabha.
“Congress member of Rajya Sabha.”, no need to seek a motive for this shamelessly adulatory article about yet another member of the corrupt remnants of the dynasty entering politics. No doubt more such “opinions” from the pens of the rest of the loyal and faithful “senior” journalists will be issuing forth!
I announce the establishment of the Kumar Ketkar Award for balanced and unbiased journalism. And the first recipient of this Award is Shri Kumar Ketkar. Sir my congratulations to you for your balance and unbiased reporting.
The best thing Priyanka Gandhi’s entry can do is that it will act as a spoiler for BJP in UP. But, the moot point is whether this would help Congress to win more than 2 seats in UP. Moreover , the predicted downfall of the BJP has one underlying assumption : ‘Congress will eat into only BJP’s vote bank and SP-BSP’s vote bank will be left untouched’. Priyanka’s entry will have no impact outside UP. One may wonder how this would help improve nationwide electoral performance of the GoP. As of now, Congress has only four dedicated allies : RJD in Bihar, NCP in Maharashtra, JDS in Karnataka and DMK in Tamil Nadu. Moreover, these allies will not cede their political space to Congress. This limits the number of seats to be contested by Congress in these four states. Post-election behaviour of the four allies is not certain. All other ‘friendly ‘ parties have maintained a safe distance and refused have any electoral alliance with Congress. It seems that the author of this article has overstated the impact of Priyanka’s entry to suit his political affiliation. I remember that the author, when he was editor of Divya Marathi, had written an editorial eulogising Hugo Chavez, the former president of Venezuela! Now in retrospect, one may conclude that Chavez did irreparable damage to Venezuela’s economy and country is paying for the misdeeds of its former president. So much for the editorial acumen of this ‘celebrated’ journalist!
1. There is no doubt that BJP’s performance in Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the coming Lok Sabha (LS) election will be adversely affected by (a) Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s entry into politics & (b) alliance of BSP & SP and by (b). 2. As I see it, one major advantage for the Congress party of Nehru-Indira Gandhi dynasty can be exploited in the Southern States, dynasty of Nehru-Indira Gandhi is known as a family with an all India image. In other words, Priyanka or Rahul Gandhi will not be regarded as someone who belongs to UP or as someone who will be more interested in furthering interests of people of Uttar Pradesh say in preference to say Madhya Pradesh or Karnataka. This is not case with any other politician, even PM Narendra Modi. 3. As regards Congress party’s performance in the coming LS election in UP, I think, it will be more dependent on benefit of division of votes. If as announced by Congress General Secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad, Congress fields candidates for all 80 Lok Sabha (LS) seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP), then there will be a minimum of three candidates in each LS constituency, one each of (a) SP & BSP alliance, (b) BJP & (c) Congress. Question in such a scenario would be this: who would benefit from division of votes? I think that is pretty uncertain. 4. BJP was the biggest beneficiary of division of votes in 2014 LS election. But it may not be so in 2019. Perhaps Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra may be able to play a significant role in containing electoral damage to Congress on account of BSP-SP alliance but whether her campaign results into significant gains in terms of LS seats of Congress is, I believe, pretty unpredictable. We will have to wait & see.