The next general election is now on the horizon, as the current Lok Sabha is set to complete its term in June 2024. Political permutations and combinations are taking shape these days. One critical political signal is emanating from Telangana, which has the potential to impact India’s political terrain. There are speculations of an alliance between the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The murmurs grew louder after a meeting between All India Congress Committee (AICC) secretary SA Sampath Kumar and BSP’s state president RS Praveen Kumar. According to The New Indian Express report, negotiations have been ongoing behind the scenes for a while.
The palpable focus of such an alliance may be regional in nature; however, its ramifications could shake the electoral arithmetic of several Indian states, with Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab potentially experiencing the most significant impact. Madhya Pradesh is going to polls this year, where the BJP and the Congress are in a tight race. The BSP has a significant presence here, which is not enough to win many seats but enough to shift the balance in scores of seats.
A shared history
To ascertain the potential implications of this probable political union, it is vital to cast an eye over the recent electoral history of UP, a state that has always been a critical theatre of Indian politics.
In the UP assembly elections of 2022, the BJP, under the leadership of Yogi Adityanath, bagged 255 seats in the 403-member assembly, a fall from their high of 312 seats in 2017. Congress, under the stewardship of the party’s general secretary Priyanka Gandhi, limped to the finish line with only two seats. It was a significant tumble from their already humble score of seven seats in the last election. With Mayawati at the helm, the BSP was left reeling with a paltry single seat, a shocking downturn from their previous tally of 19 seats.
It’s important to note that 15 years ago, in the 2007 assembly elections in UP, the BSP had achieved a full majority. Similarly, until the 1980s, UP was considered to be the stronghold of the Congress. Now the situation has changed so much that the party’s top leader Rahul Gandhi lost his Amethi seat in the 2019 general elections.
The aforementioned electoral statistics highlight the desperate situation both the Congress and BSP find themselves in UP, a state that holds the pole position in national politics by virtue of its hefty 80 Lok Sabha seats. It is evident that both parties are grappling with the dire need for a to resurrect their political fortunes.
Interestingly, the path towards this potential political union is not entirely new terrain for both parties. The INC and BSP had formed a brief alliance for the UP assembly elections back in 1996, which disintegrated within a couple of years due to internal discord. This historical precedent, coupled with their current politically tough situation, spurs speculation on whether they can overcome their differences and band together once more, this time for political survival. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi did try to forge an alliance with the BSP earlier but the BSP was cold to the idea at the time.
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Muslim voters and common interest
The threat of further diminishment in UP politics looms large over the INC and BSP. In this dark hour, an alliance might be the lifeline they need. Together, they could combine their resources and influence, making a strategic move that may potentially cause a shift in the voting patterns, especially among the Muslim demographic. Historically, the Muslims in the state have leaned towards Samajwadi Party, particularly after the Babri Mosque demolition in 1992.
A substantial migration of Muslim voters (with a population share of 19.26 per cent in UP) towards a BSP-Congress alliance could spell doom for the Samajwadi Party. In the 2022 elections, Muslim votes formed the foundation of 32 out of the Samajwadi Party’s 111 seats. A shift in this demographic’s political allegiance could weaken the SP’s electoral base and significantly dilute its political stature in UP.
For Muslim voters, Congress’ potential alliance with BSP, which still commands the largest share of Scheduled Caste votes, could emerge as a beacon in the political storm. Despite their steadfast loyalty to the Samajwadi Party, their collective vote has not been potent enough to effectively challenge the BJP’s hegemony in recent elections, especially after the 2014 electoral victory of the BJP at the national level. A coalition between the INC and BSP could emerge as an alternate platform that might better voice their concerns and interests, and present a more formidable opposition to the BJP’s supremacy. Though, at this juncture, this is only a possibility.
The success of this proposed alliance teeters on several critical factors. These include reconciliation of long-standing ideological differences, establishing a fair power-sharing mechanism, strategic distribution of seats, and, most importantly, convincing their respective voter bases about the merits and prospects of this new political course. The mission is undoubtedly tough but the potential rewards—a re-established political foothold—could make the struggle worth it. With their bitter past, it is not easy for both the parties to come together. It will be more difficult for their supporters to vote for each other’s candidates. As the saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures, and both parties have almost nothing to lose.
The tentative alliance between the INC and BSP, though currently embroiled in local politics, could trigger a domino effect that would reverberate through the political landscape of UP and beyond. Their shared history and the mutual necessity for political revival might just ignite the spark needed for renewed cooperation. The eventual success or failure of this political venture could dramatically reshape the political trajectory of UP, thereby leaving a lasting imprint on the political map of the nation. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
Dilip Mandal is the former managing editor of India Today Hindi Magazine, and has authored books on media and sociology. He tweets @Profdilipmandal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)