In 2019, after the Congress’ second consecutive debacle in the Lok Sabha election, Rahul Gandhi wrote an open, four-page letter, explaining his decision to resign as party president. Numerous people will have to be made accountable for the failure of 2019, he wrote, adding how he “personally fought the prime minister, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and the institutions they have captured”. At times, I stood completely alone and am extremely proud of it, he wrote further. Essentially, Rahul’s letter suggested that he did his best but his party colleagues – plus institutions like the judiciary, the media and the election commission – let him down.
What he didn’t mention in that letter was the one act that undermined the Congress’ bid for power, making it look like a party that had conceded defeat before the battle and was looking for self-preservation. It was his decision to contest from Wayanad, apart from Amethi, the constituency he represented for three terms in the Lok Sabha. The impression of the then Congress president feeling unsafe in his family bastion and looking to ensure his entry into the Lok Sabha from a safer seat was damaging—both in terms of voters’ perception and the morale of party workers and supporters. In 2014, when Modi opted for a second constituency Varanasi, other than Vadodara in his citadel of Gujarat, it was meant to galvanise voters in the biggest state, Uttar Pradesh and the entire Hindi heartland—apart from the symbolism of contesting from the holy city of the Hindus.
Rahul’s Amethi dilemma
In 2019, the Congress also sought to explain Rahul’s decision as a move to maximise the party’s gains in Kerala and other southern states but it wasn’t convincing—because Kerala couldn’t be the arena for his “ideological battle” against Bharatiya Janata Party/RSS and Modi, among other reasons. Rahul lost to Smriti Irani in Amethi by over 55,000 votes. Who knows what the results could be if he hadn’t shown a lack of trust in Amethi voters?
He should have learned a thing or two from Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal who decided to contest against Modi in Varanasi in 2014. By the way, Congress leaders would confide in me in those days that Rahul admired Kejriwal – his tirade against the ‘system’ and ability to mobilise the masses. They weren’t joking. How often did you see Rahul attacking Kejriwal before they became friends as part of the Opposition alliance, INDIA? Anyway, coming to the AAP chief’s Varanasi gambit, Kejriwal himself wouldn’t have fancied his chances against Modi. He fought a losing battle to project the AAP as the BJP’s challenger. It worked in Punjab at least, where the party won four Lok Sabha seats in 2014.
It also helped the AAP to build on its gains in Delhi and sweep the 2015 assembly election in the national capital.
In 2024, Rahul Gandhi is confronted with the Amethi dilemma again. He remains tight-lipped while the party has left the decision to him. Now that the people in Wayanad have voted, he can’t prolong his decision any longer. His indecision has also delayed the announcement of the Congress candidate in neighbouring Raebareli, the seat vacated by Sonia Gandhi. Amethi and Raebareli will go to polls on 20 May. The Gandhi family has just four days to decide; the last date for filing nomination papers in these constituencies is 3 May.
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Options ahead
So, what’s bothering Rahul Gandhi? Why is he taking so long to decide? Congress leaders – even those close to him – don’t have a definite answer. It’s a family matter, they say. Let me piece together their information and understanding of the reasons for this delay and the options the Gandhis are exploring. The first is, of course, the option of contesting from his Amethi seat again.
There are, however, apprehensions that he has been mostly absent from his former constituency for over five years, leaving the field clear for Irani. What if Irani defeats him the second consecutive time? What would it tell about his projection as PM Modi’s principal challenger if he can’t even defeat one of his ministers? It will be worse if the party also loses the third consecutive general election on Rahul’s watch. The party’s second consecutive defeat gave voice to G-23. The third one could give rise to something more challenging, especially for a leader who loses to one of Modi’s ministers twice.
What’s the second option? Not to contest from a second constituency and let both Amethi and Raebareli be fought by lesser mortals. The BJP would then attach the ‘deserter’ tag to the entire Gandhi family.
The third option for Rahul is to contest in Raebareli and field Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in Amethi. The family contesting the two seats would blunt the BJP’s likely ‘desertion’ barbs against Rahul. It would also be seen as a strategic move by the family to pit a woman against a woman. Given that it’s Priyanka who has nursed both constituencies on behalf of her mother and brother, she is unlikely to have any issue contesting in either.
But here is a twist that Congress leaders point out to me – the complexity of the siblings being in the Lok Sabha. It’s not about any rivalry between them. The siblings are said to enjoy a great relationship. Given that Rahul has been reluctant to formally take over as the leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Priyanka, if and when she wins, would become a natural choice for the post. It would be heartbreaking for some leaders. For one, KC Venugopal, Rahul’s aide, who contested the Lok Sabha election from Alappuzha this time – after staying away in 2019. Many in the party see him as the next Leader of the Opposition if he wins.
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Why’s BJP ignoring Priyanka?
Priyanka is a good orator who strikes a chord with the people, especially women. She is also a natural politician, unlike her brother who is seen as a reluctant one. That’s why even the BJP has chosen not to give her importance by targeting her. She has called PM Modi ‘shaadi wale uncle ji’ and slammed him for talking “nonsense” and “stupid things” but neither the PM nor his party has retorted.
And it’s not the first time. They have consistently chosen to ignore her even as she keeps targeting Modi. It’s probably because they find it better to target her brother. But if she were to enter the Lok Sabha, it would elevate her profile—not just in public but, more importantly, within the party where she has, so far, chosen to play second fiddle to her brother.
Depending on the Lok Sabha results, her rising profile can be potentially disruptive for a party that has looked reconciled and resigned to its continuous decline since 2014. Rahul’s lieutenants are said to be conscious of these likely complexities in future – starting with the hypothetical scenario of Priyanka fighting on her brother’s behalf in Amethi and beating Irani. Not that these possibilities wouldn’t arise if she contests from the Raebareli seat.
The fourth option for Rahul would be to contest from Raebareli and field a non-Gandhi in Amethi, keeping Priyanka out of the electoral race. It may be a difficult option for him though. She has been a star campaigner of the party nationally and keeping her out of Parliament even now would raise many questions.
While there are pros and cons to all the four options Rahul has, the second one – to not contest from Amethi or Raebareli – is the worst from the Congress’ perspective. The party can’t afford him to be seen as someone who has run away from a seemingly tough contest. For Congress to send out the message that it is fighting to win in 2024, he must show that he has it in him to take on the challenge in Amethi. Any hint of doubt or lack of confidence on his part would seriously undermine the Congress’ standing as a serious contender for power in this election.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
2019: Someone seen running from Amethi to Wayanad with escape velocity, tail tucked between legs.