There is one thing that political reporters can’t stop themselves from doing on the campaign trail – picking the taxi driver’s brain. My driver in Kochi was a delight. He needed no prompting to open up. “Neither the Communists nor the Congress are good for Kerala. They – the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government – didn’t give pension for seven months. Now they’ve released it for two months…They levied a two-rupee cess on petrol…” he went on and on.
“Please don’t mind but maybe the BJP will do a better job,” the driver told me, turning to check out my reaction. My fellow traveller, a Kochi-based journalist, poked me to ask if he was a Nair. I didn’t. Why bring caste into the perceived misgovernance of God’s Own Country by the Communists? Kochi-Thrissur streets were full of unflattering stories about Vijayan’s governance – or the lack of it.
A day before coming to Kochi, I had spent quite some time with students at two colleges in Coimbatore – The PSG College of Arts and Science and the Hindusthan College of Arts & Science. They weren’t much into any ideology. They didn’t have any particular issue with the government of the day, led by MK Stalin of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (DMK). Earlier in Chennai, a senior functionary of PEN – Populous Empowerment Network, the in-house strategic firm of the DMK – had told me that the Sanatan controversy had helped the DMK as it rekindled waning interest in Dravidianism. Coimbatore students shrugged in a who-the-heck-cares way when I asked what they understood by Dravidianism.
They responded similarly to my queries about Hindutva and the BJP. So, what are you going to do on the polling day? NOTA, replied many of them. Minakshi, an assistant professor of economics at another Coimbatore college, wouldn’t want to ‘waste’ her vote on NOTA and would rather vote for the DMK. She had voted for the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) until J Jayalalithaa’s death. What about K Annamalai, the BJP candidate in Coimbatore? “Modi is talking good things but the BJP is not here in Tamil Nadu,” she said.
BJP’s 7 big hurdles
That brings us to the first of at least seven reasons that have hampered the BJP’s march into Tamil Nadu and Kerala, and also Andhra Pradesh, for that matter. Many may be looking for a third alternative in the DMK-AIADMK-dominated Tamil Nadu and the LDF-UDF (Left Democratic Front and United Democratic Front) dominated Kerala. But they don’t see the BJP as an alternative yet.
The second factor is the BJP’s image as a Brahmin, ‘upper caste’ party. As I pointed out in last week’s column, the BJP has strived hard to break this image in Tamil Nadu by promoting Nadars, Dalits and Gounders to key positions since 2014.
The BJP has been seeking to woo Syrian Christians in Kerala of late, but it has always tried to court two other major communities—upper-caste Nairs and other backward-class (OBC) Ezhavas. Look at the two big faces promoted by the BJP in Kerala—state BJP president K Surendran and Union minister V Muraleedharan. Both are Ezhavas. Let’s look at the last four state BJP presidents – Muraleedharan (2010-2015), Ezhava, now Union minister; K Rajasekharan (2015-18), Nair, ex-governor, Mizoram; PS Sreedharan Pillai (2018-2019), Nair, governor of Goa since 2021; and, Surendran (2020-till now), Ezhava. According to national election surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Kerala between 2006-2019, there has been consistent growth in the BJP’s Nair and Ezhava support base in the past decade.
The third factor is the BJP’s projection by its political rivals as a North Indian, Hindu-Hindi party that’s bent on imposing its writ on southern states in terms of (Hindi) language, ideology (Hindutva as synonymous with Brahminical and as opposed to principles of social justice), and culture. The possibility of southern states losing their ‘voice’ after the delimitation of constituencies to the BJP (read North Indian party)’s advantage often figures in public conversations. Governors in these states have only fed into this narrative by frequent interferences in the functioning of elected governments, much to the glee of traditionally dominant parties in these states.
The fourth impediment is the portrayal of the BJP by its political and ideological adversaries as an ‘anti-minority’ party. This works adversely in a state like Kerala where Muslims and Christians constitute about 45 per cent of the population, and even Tamil Nadu, where both Dravidian parties vie for the 12 per cent minority vote. These parties are confident that the Dravidian model of social justice would prevent any polarisation along religious lines.
The fifth factor, emanating from the fourth, is the BJP’s ostensible view that its political and ideological pursuits in other states wouldn’t impact its standing in South India. The party’s mishandling of the Manipur situation often crops up in conversations. “If Annamalai becomes the chief minister, Manipur things will happen here,” a Hindusthan College of Arts & Science student told me. “How come you are talking about Manipur when I am asking about Annamalai?”. His reply was rather curt: “Do you think I am uneducated? I don’t know what’s happening at other places?”
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Banking on Modi’s image?
The sixth obstacle in the BJP’s path is the absence of strong leadership in states. While Annamalai has emerged as a powerful voice of the BJP in Tamil Nadu—which has now deployed him for electioneering in Kerala, too— there are no other leaders on the horizon who can take its messages down to the grassroots, especially when it doesn’t have much of a cadre base.
Last but not least, BJP’s political adversaries in the south, even the Congress, are much more organised and alive in their response to hot-button issues. Unlike in the north, they set the agenda of public discourse.
The BJP is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, his OBC credentials and his image as a ‘development man’ to overcome these seven challenges in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. It has also worked assiduously to change its image. With Modi leading the BJP’s charge, the party can hope the 2024 Lok Sabha election to be a turning point in its southern pursuits. There are, however, many ‘ifs’, which are beyond its control.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)