Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s prediction of at least 370 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Lok Sabha election—and ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ for the BJP-led NDA—has led to various interpretations in political circles. One view is that he wants to break the Congress party’s record of 414 Lok Sabha seats in 1984-85. As for 370, it’s simply a strategy to capitalise on his government’s decision to scrap Jammu and Kashmir’s special status bestowed under Article 370.
Another view—from the Opposition camp, for sure—is that these ‘unrealistic’ numbers are only meant to scare the weak-hearted among politicians and voters into submission. It’s also a sign of hubris, which may backfire, say Opposition leaders, almost hoping against hope. Some also believe that PM Modi actually wants to cross 370. After all, 371 was the best Jawaharlal Nehru could get for the Congress in the Lok Sabha in 1957. These Congressmen are somehow convinced that Modi’s biggest desire is to surpass Nehru who was the Prime Minister for 16 years and 286 days. And, that’s why, they also believe that Modi is prepared for a fourth term. Well, Congressmen are entitled to their fantasies and fears.
While 370 is a good number to burnish the BJP’s nationalism plank, given its recall value in J&K’s context, the actual number PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah might have in mind is 362—the two-thirds majority mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha. This number is crucial to the BJP, which is set to make ‘one nation, one election’ its main goal in PM Modi’s third term in office—that is, assuming that the opinion polls hold true on 4 June. The Ram Nath Kovind-led committee, of which Amit Shah was also a member, has suggested a raft of Constitutional amendments to implement the simultaneous elections. Most of these amendments will have to be passed with a special majority—by more than 50 per cent of total members and two-thirds of those present and voting in the House.
Going by pre-poll surveys, the NDA is expected to comfortably reach the two-thirds mark in the Lok Sabha but the BJP would like to reach there on its own. Why depend on anyone, even allies? BJP insiders claim that the party’s internal surveys peg its tally around 330 ‘at this stage’.
Be that as it may, the BJP’s problem in the Rajya Sabha remains unresolved. The two-thirds mark in the 245-member Upper House of Parliament is 164. The BJP has 97 members in this House today while the ruling NDA’s tally stands at 117. But as we saw in PM Modi’s second term, Amit Shah never let the Rajya Sabha come in the way of anything that the government wanted.
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Delimitation on the agenda
Another big-ticket item on the BJP’s agenda for 2024-29 is the delimitation of constituencies after the next census—in 2026, hopefully. As per an affidavit submitted by the Centre in the Supreme Court, the delimitation exercise is likely to increase the Lok Sabha strength to 888 members and the Rajya Sabha numbers to 384.
It’s a contentious issue, with southern states opposed to a move that will end up boosting the northern states’ representation in Parliament, much to the BJP’s advantage. It won’t be easy to get parliamentary approval to increase these seats unless ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ becomes a reality for the NDA.
Going by Modi-Shah’s track record, be prepared for some shockers along the way. When one can’t be sure about their decisions tomorrow, it’s futile to guess what’s on their mind for the next five years. One thing is, however, sure. When PM Modi talks about 370, it’s not just a catchy slogan. He has the two-thirds majority figure on his mind and the number of things he would use it for.
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Status of Delhi
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal should, however, worry. A two-thirds majority may enable the BJP to do what many BJP leaders say could be the party’s last resort—reverting Delhi to its original union territory status if it fails to rein in Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party. BJP minders tell me that as per the party leadership’s assessment, Kejriwal has to be “put down before he becomes too big”.
“See what happened when the Congress couldn’t put Modi ji down when he was the Gujarat chief minister. The Congress saw the long-term threat from Modi ji and so went after him and Amit Shah ji who they even jailed. Then they got busy with Rahul Gandhi and see what happened. Modi ji can’t make the same mistake with Kejriwal,” a friend from the ruling camp told me. The BJP leadership is weighing the option of striking at the very root: Make Delhi a Union Territory again and do away with the assembly.
Delhi used to have an Assembly till 1956 when it became a UT. Delhi Municipal Corporation came into existence the next year and it was replaced by Delhi Metropolitan Council in 1966 with 56 elected and five nominated members. Incidentally, LK Advani, then a Jan Sangh leader, was the chairman of this council from 1967 to 1970. It was through the Sixty-Ninth Amendment Act 1991 that Delhi got the assembly again.
Ruling party leaders even thinking about reverting to pre-1993 status should set alarm bells ringing in the AAP. Being the CM of the national capital gives him a lot more political heft and national and international attention. If there is no CM’s post to be occupied in Delhi, he can either contest MCD polls in Delhi or go to Haryana and look for another Anna Hazare to re-launch him, said my friend.
This and many other things could be taking shape in Modi-Shah’s mind as they pursue the 362-370-seat target for the BJP and over 400 for the NDA.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)
I am reminded of Icarus.