Hopeful headlines have now given way to a realisation that all is not ok at the heights in Ladakh, where India and China are eyeball to eyeball. Well, retinas are not really visible since some Chinese trucks have pulled away, but the ground forces of the People’s Liberation Army remain in areas they weren’t before April 2020. The Narendra Modi government in New Delhi can try hard to keep a lid on it, or sweep it under the carpet, but the sad truth is out now.
While ‘un-named’ military sources are prone to be discounted by those who don’t want to believe the incursion in Ladakh, a local BJP councillor confirms Chinese intrusions at unprecedented levels. Konchok Stanzin, representing Chushul in the Leh Autonomous Hill Development Council, is on record to authenticate Chinese intrusions.
Something has changed in 2020, and the tone and tenor of the official Chinese media has been in stark contrast to what happened during the last border crisis at Doklam in 2017. In September that year, Maj. Gen. Qiao Liang wrote a remarkably conciliatory opinion piece as the Doklam crisis tapered off. Nothing unusual for a military man to write a pacificatory article, but Maj Gen Liang had also co-authored a path-breaking monograph in the mid-1990s, setting off alarm bells in democratic militaries. His Unrestricted Warfare has become essential reading for an insight into the PLA. So for him to write, “China and India are both neighbors and competitors, but not all competitors must be treated in the toughest way”; and, “Many people would say that the road construction in China’s territory was none of India’s business. Is this belief right? It is reasonable to some extent because road construction in this area is not a matter of right and wrong… Only doing the right thing at the right time is correct” — is something worth noting.
Also read: Why the serene Pangong lake lies at the heart of India-China border dispute in Ladakh
India’s permanent mystery
So, is Summer 2020 ‘the right thing at the right time’ moment for China? Indian observers, both military and diplomatic, have struggled to answer, ‘why now?’ It is a mystery that remains unanswered for two simple reasons.
Beijing has never been particularly transparent about its military postures and policies; and, more importantly, India has never demonstrated an insight into how China works. Despite centuries of interaction, India’s awareness and knowledge of China’s functioning is still woefully inadequate.
Unlike other surviving civilisational states, China has largely retained its ‘court’-inspired governance culture, and a firm belief in its centrality to human existence. As in all such courts, there are factions, and in China there is an increasingly influential military-bureaucratic grouping called Ying Pai, hawks or eagles.
“Many of these ying pai are generals and admiral and government hard liners… They are the Chinese officials and authors I know the best because since 1973 the US government has instructed me to work with them… To me, they represent the real voice of China,” wrote Michael Pillsbury in The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower (2015).
Also read: India has a bigger worry than LAC. China now expanding military footprint in Indian Ocean
Activating Ying Pai generals
These, ‘real voice of China’, are on a mission to expand the national footprint. And any opportunity is grabbed, with planning, foresight, and an identifiable aim. India provided just such an opening when in August 2019, Union Home Minister Amit Shah vowed to shed blood for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Aksai Chin, occupied by China. Soon after that, in August-September 2019, that something was amiss along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) became apparent when Indian patrolling began to be blocked by the PLA.
After that, all it took was for the coronavirus to expose the inadequacies of the Indian State, its bizarre decision-making, and the limits of its capabilities. Thus, India became the only country with resources to block its citizens out of its borders, the only country that compelled its poorest to walk home thousands of kilometres, as also the only one where trains lost their way.
Economic constraints also compelled the Modi government to contemplate pruning defence expenditure, thus convincing Ying Pai generals that conditions were ripe for exposing Home Minister Amit Shah’s bravado, who had given greater importance to political posturing over policy formulation, even as the Covid-19 pandemic spread.
Also read: PM Modi’s silence on LAC stand-off is benefiting China. India must change its script
Silence of the duo
But when the two armies exchanged blows and pelted each other with stones at the LAC, there was deafening silence from Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah. The Prime Minister, who has visited China more than all his predecessors combined, the only one who has shared a swing with its Central Military Commission chairman, and the only to have hosted a Chinese President on the Bay of Bengal, found it worthwhile to share figures from the latest Asiatic Lion census, but not a word about the PLA in Indian territory.
His Home Minister, who was “ready to give” his life for Aksai Chin, has not reiterated any pledge for Pangong Tso, thus confirming to the Chinese that India’s ruling party’s national mission is the next election, solely. While Beijing is in the 70th year of its 100-year marathon to dominate the world, Ying Pai have clearly caught the thermals above eastern Ladakh.
The author is a Congress leader and Editor-in-Chief of Defence & Security Alert. Views are personal.
China (Communism) and Pakistan (Islam) covet all of India. But plan to take it slice by slice and with a thousand cuts.
Mahomet (who was a camel driver) speaks of this in the story of the camel and the tent which became a central tenet of the desert bandit cult called islam. First the camel puts its head inside Mahomet’s tent, then little by little the camel works its way into the tent and Mahomet has to sleep outside.
Nehru sacrificed Tibet to Mao hoping this would appease China. Mao then described Tibet as the palm of his hand reaching out for all of India and and the Indian territories of Ladakh, Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal and Arunachal Pradesh as the five fingers of the palm.
This is the basis of the Communist Party’s claim on all of India and like Mao, China follows the teachings of Sun Tsu. Islam however claims all of India on the basis of Quran and Hadith.
So, India yielding even an inch of territory to the enemy is merely an incentive for the enemy to take more.
Every time there is an opportunity which the Chinese see, the Chinese come further into Indian territory. This is like moving forward towards the goal in Rugby or American football.’
Apart from on going fluid opportunities due to lack of border infrastructure for the Indian Armed Forces, the Indian Army presented the Chinese with two significant opportunities, which they took advantage of.
(1) During Kargil, the Indian soldiers were moved from their positions at Daulat Beg Oldie to reinforce the forces taking on Pakistan’s Norther Light infantry in Kargil Heights. Kargil was a classic example of Indian failure in intelligence, logistics, military command and control as well as political leadership. In effect, the Pakis had moved into the heights and entrenched themselves when the Indian Army moved down during winter. Just as the Chinese did when the Indian Army moved from Pangong Lake (Daulat Beg Oldie) to Kargil. And India had to retake what was originally its own at enormous cost of Indian blood and lives owing to poor preparation, lack of ammunition, lack of reliable and appropriate equipment and weaponry, lack of co-ordination and laughable, unrealistic “Charge of the Light Brigade” Brass Hat commands, totally divorced from the reality on the ground or the methods of 20th Century warfare..
(2) Owing to the lack of proper high altitude winter equipment, the Indian Army again moved to lower slopes more recently vacating territory which the Chinese quickly occupied.
In both cases, the buck stops at the table of the politicians and bureaucrats at Delhi who constrain the Army into having to cope with what they have and carrying out orders issued with scant understanding of warfare or operational command. This the Government does not want exposed.
The Indian Army on returning to these heights in fairer weather resume patrolling in India’s side of the LAC only to find themselves challenged by the Chinese who are now in occupation leading to these tussles.
There is also the pathetic faith of India’s “diplomats”, “bureaucrats” and “politicians” that foreign powers are more honest than themselves and will adhere to promises, agreements and treaties more faithfully than they themselves do. Hence, there is an excessive faith in diplomacy and that China will adhere to what was the agreed Line of Actual Control rather than in building, refining and applying Indian hard power.
In this witches’ brew, the cover up by India’s ruling class of their blunders lulls them into a state of self hypnosis or delusion which prevents them from learning the lessons of History. Particularly Indian military History which these blundering incompetent and corrupt wielders of power have buried.
For just one example, the Henderson Brooks Report on India’s 1962 debacle has been covered up from Nehru to Modi, precisely because the Government is incapable of undoing the Himalayan blunder and taking back the strategic territories lost to China that will be demanded by public pressure when the public learn the full facts of the matter.
Amit Shaw fired salvos from his mouth and prodded at the giant China.Let alone bringing back Aksai Chin,we are fearing losing big chunk of galwan valleys
An apt comment Mr N. Kumar.
The repeal or reform of Art 370 changing the status of Kashmir was surely long due. But it was done in a manner with the sole purpose of galvanising the forces of Hindutva, consolidating the urban, upper middle-class Hindu vote and humiliating Muslims by showing them their place in India. Predictably, outside actors like China, China’s all-weather friend Pakistan, the Islamic countries of the Middle-East where millions of Indians work, tiny Nepal and even the EU & US took note. Hence, when Amit Shah loudly boasted in Parliament on 5th Aug 2019 that India would reclaim Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Aksai Chin which the Chinese had captured in 1962, the Chinese were rattled. Frantic shuttle diplomacy by Foreign Minister Jaishankar to placate the Chinese do not seem to have paid off.
This follows a very familiar pattern. To stir up domestic Hindutva forces, Shah, Modi, Mohan Bhagwat, Tejaswi Surya, Adityanath, Sadhvi Pragya Thakur and many other BJP ideologues resort to shrill jingoistic and Islamophobic rhetoric that reverberates outside the shores of the country. Thus you have former Union Minister Jayant Sinha – a Harvard educated chap – garlanding gaurakshaks convicted of murdering a Muslim trader; the PM himself following thuggish gaurakshaks on Twitter; an out of control BJP IT cell spewing venom and hate towards Muslims; Arnab Goswami and his clones screaming themselves hoarse about Hindu victimhood; a firebrand CM called Adityanath promising to rape the corpses of dead Muslim women and so on.
Take for instance that perpetual premature ejaculator Tejaswi Surya whose frustrations with the non-functional termite dangling between his legs upsets his ability to think, talk and tweet straight. This Tejaswi joker or rather jerker perversely believes that his job description as BJP MP entails detailed analyses of the orgasms of Arab women ! How that obsession translates into vikas for India beats me – but then I am just a simpleton. But Tejaswi’s premature puking soon elicited attention from the UAE where many Indians work and whose remittances keep the tanking Gujarat Model economy from completely capsizing. Again Foreign Minister- cum James Bond – Jaishankar – had to be parachuted in to pacify his counterparts in the UAE.
And then you had that incident where Muslims and Hindus were segregated in hospitals and everyone venting their Islamophobia on Muslims due to the antics of the Tablighi Jamaat. That exuberant display of Hindutva was so dangerous for India’s reputation that it actually forced the PM himself to come up with some statements – albeit very tepid ones – about the virus not being religion specific.
About time the Gujarat rulers of India realised that Hindutva and banging on the drums of jingoism to feed the local crows will soon attract large vultures. And they have already gobbled up some chunks of India.
I seriously have my doubts that India will do anything to China at this moment, feared within the fear of being kicked back and bashed with nail wired clubs. The Silence at the Center, clearly shows that nothing is going to happen and everything is normal and All is Well. Meaning Eastern Ladakh is part of China along with Akai Chin. The PLA is well position at eastern Ladakh with all necessary weapons and ready for a fight,. Whereas our poor soldiers have to walk by foot to fight them. After all these years if India has not understood China, no matter what we Indians show our anger on the media and streets. End of the day every product we use are made in China and comes from China. Don’t be surprised if the internet is cut of while reading my comments the China are already hacking us. And petrol prices spike up the Chinese are planning to block our daily needs. We can only replace Modi with another Joker who will do nothing and remain the same as another Nehru. After 1962 we have progressed alot and moved ahead in different dimensions. But where are we today to see China. To confront them and claim back what is ours and take back ours. They have planned and executed that Yours is Mine today. Agree or Bleed to Death. Jai Hind..
I don’t know why there is no option for me to write a response to this article. May be it is because I write against the print. Or may be it is like this for everyone. So I m writing it as a reply.
The author is a Congress leader so it is obvious that it is the totally fault of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah that China is ”compelled” to invade Indian territory. In this article, it has been proved that ‘naive’ China has been ‘instigated’ to further its well articulated moves against vision less and mindless Indian leadership and there is no fault of China. China has always been right and is right in its moves.
It is a different matter that china has many motives behind its moves. China has multiple objectives – – – –
1. China is under threat and its social fabric has been torn by pandemic and falling exports. Beginning with Hong Kong, it is a fear of repeat of Tiananmen square. By showing to its people that China is under threat from many countries so Chinese people must unite against them otherwise China is a whole will collapse. China wants to create a nationalistic hysteria among its people
2. China wants to show that its internal problems like rampant unemployment are miniscule against National threat created by other countries
3. China wants to divert attention of the world countries from its sins regarding coronavirus towards geo political struggles
4. By showing threat to other countries china wants to show that China is still a strong country
5. Since thousands of companies are planning to flee China and China thinks that india is its closest competitor, so with the help of Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan and Bangladesh, china wants to prove that India is a weak state. An unstable country where investment is not going to be fruitful
6. By threatening India, Australia Japan, South Korea and many other small countries, it is striving to stop formation of an international alliance against itself
7. As China does in all democratic countries, it is using Indian opposition and media and intellectuals to propagate in favour of China and against Indian leadership
8. By showing its muscle power and by proving that it is going to be a superpower of the world, china is hell bent to hold back the fleeing international companies
9. Shi Jinping wants to tighten his loosening grip over Communist Party of China
10. It is obvious for China that there is no benefit of its efforts towards improving Chinese image. As China has become a villain in the eyes of democratic countries. So China has started Flexing its muscles. It is wrangling to get Out of the clutches of its image of a rogue and none-for-good state amid corona pandemic, and it is desperate to get out of this mess
11. Amid a crisis, china doesn’t want that ”virus of democracy” that irritated it in Hong Kong does not spread to rest of China
You are only blabbering. This Article is about irresponsible speech by Amit Shah. Please restrict your comments only about that. The whole world knows about China. What did Amit Shah really do that made Indian forces to counteract the trespassing and occupation by Chinese. Why are you holding negotiation with Chinese when you thundered you are going to recapture Akshai Chin right in Parliament. The reality is it is mere rhetoric to get votes from foolish Hindus ( I am also a Hindu). Because of irresponsible speech by Amit Shah, we have lost 20 Indian Soldiers for nothing. If your real intention is to capture Akshai Chin, you will not tell that in Parliament making Chinese ready for counter attack. That is what China did now.