Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin. Modi and Xi Jinping. Modi and Ashraf Ghani. Pictures of bear hugs (with the Russian president) and chaste handshakes (with the Chinese president) speak a thousand words.
But where were Modi and Imran Khan? According to The Indian Express, the two estranged neighbours sat across the table from each other at the Frunze restaurant (named after Bolshevik leader Mikhail Vasilyevich Frunze, an indication that the new Kyrgyzstan is willing to embrace its history, warts and all), but didn’t utter nary a word to each other.
The question, whether Modi is willing to embrace his own history, warts and all, is an important one. Certainly, Modi wants to rewrite the past as well as the present, believing the Indian state has been far too forgiving with a deadly neighbour whose only worthwhile export is cross-border terrorism.
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So, what can Modi do?
In this uncertain period of international diplomacy, two things are clear. First, India and the US need to make nice – it is obvious that Modi and Trump don’t really get along, trade tensions continue to linger and the Indian purchase of Russian defence equipment, most recently $700 million worth of missiles is becoming a real irritant in the Indo-US relationship.
And since signalling is everything in diplomacy, the absence of a chief guest at the US National Day in Delhi on 6 June was startling, to say the least.
It transpired that the US Embassy in Delhi had invited external affairs minister S. Jaishankar to the event, but that invitation was turned down.
No question, PM Modi took that call. To not send Jaishankar to the US National Day celebrations, especially when he has been a former ambassador to the US and dealt closely with the Americans as foreign secretary, is significant.
Clearly, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Delhi later this month, and his endearing “Modi hai to mumkin hai” remarks Wednesday, is meant to repair the relationship. The gargantuan shadow of China looms large and if the US doesn’t want to lose India to the charms of the East Asian dragon, then it must act fast.
Modi is probably betting the Americans have more to lose than gain if they don’t have India on their side. Trump’s withdrawal of GSP benefits has been a slap in the PM’s face, soon after he was re-elected with such a huge mandate.
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But Modi also knows that he cannot do without the Americans. After all, it was the Americans that India turned to when Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman was captured by the Pakistanis in the over 24-hour face-off between India and Pakistan on 27 February, and it was the Americans (along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two key US allies who wouldn’t have lifted a finger without Washington’s say-so) who told Islamabad to let him go within 48 hours of his capture.
The US would like India and Pakistan to talk, if only to return the region to some modicum of stability. The Americans have far too much on their plate – read, China – and cannot afford another crisis like the one around Pulwama-Balakot.
Second, in this ongoing first month since Modi returned to power, it is increasingly clear that national security adviser Ajit Doval remains Modi’s closest aide and confidante.
Despite the fact that Doval’s cabinet rank – as well as those of principal secretary Nripendra Mishra and additional secretary in the PMO, P.K. Mishra – came in the aftermath of Jaishankar’s elevation, it is important to note that Doval is the one who accompanied the PM to both the Maldives and Sri Lanka last weekend and is now in Bishkek with Modi.
This brings to mind the time, 20 years ago, when former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s two key confidantes, external affairs minister Jaswant Singh and principal secretary to the PM and NSA Brajesh Mishra, vied for his affections.
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Apart from the fact that that was a different era and Vajpayee’s large-hearted personality allowed him to embrace different kinds of people, a certain tension between the two lasted as long as Vajpayee was the PM.
As Modi’s eyes and ears, the Doval-Jaishankar duo will necessarily work in tandem and the PM will utilise them both to the best of their expertise – Doval with the neighbourhood and Russia, while Jaishankar’s influence on the US and China will likely be writ large. Both are highly adept at their jobs.
So, who will be Modi’s Chanakya? The answer to that question can wait as the rest of us return to the will-he/wont-he or whether and why question around Modi and Imran Khan in Bishkek.
Dr Jaishankar was one of the most gifted diplomats of his generation. Even UPA wanted to promote him out of turn to become FS. So his intellect and lifetime’s experience of foreign policy make him especially valuable to lead MEA at an unsettled time. If anything, the Foreign Office needs to be restored to its earlier role and status as the primary locus of policy formulation. India needs a carefully modulated foreign policy that avoids an excess of emotion and personalities. A minefield stretches ahead.