As you switch on your TV (or laptop) to track the 2019 Lok Sabha election trends, I suggest you divide all the states into five categories:
Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand: The BJP had nearly swept these states in 2014. These states witness a direct BJP vs Congress contest. The BJP can afford to lose about 20 seats here and still form the government, but higher losses could indicate trouble. If the BJP is more or less holding its seats in these states, it indicates a clear majority for the BJP and doom for the Congress.
Maharashtra, Karnataka & Bihar: Since the BJP faces cohesive opposition alliances, these states would test the mahagathbandhan idea. If the NDA can retain its tally as predicted by exit polls, or lose up to 10 seats, it would be on course to forming the government.
Also read: If pollsters are playing safe this time, BJP’s final Lok Sabha tally can be higher
West Bengal, Odisha & northeast: Exit polls predict that the BJP can expect its biggest bonanza in these states. If the BJP gains up to 20 seats in these states, it can make up for its losses elsewhere and stay on course to forming a government. A higher gain would indicate a huge nationwide victory for the BJP.
Uttar Pradesh: It’s important not just because it has 80 seats, but also because this is where the BJP is expected to face the stiffest opposition. If the BJP wins 50 or more seats, it is on course to attain a majority on its own. However, if the SP-BSP combine can win 50 seats, as they expect even after the exit polls, then the NDA’s majority may be threatened, unless it makes up for this big loss in the rest of the country.
Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana & Punjab: You would watch these states if you are interested in their state politics. These states may not matter much to the big national picture this time, except in the unlikely event that the NDA falls 30-40 seats short of majority.
Also read: The 5 constituencies that have always got Lok Sabha poll ‘prediction’ right
While the TV screens show leads for NDA in 200 seats, I wouldn’t read much into this at this stage. These are postal ballots and they don’t quite represent the rest of the population. As per the EC instructions, the proper EVM count begins at 8:30 am. We should expect real trends by around 9 am.
Meanwhile, let me engage you with some articles on this election that I wrote for ThePrint:
Why the BJP is looking at a loss of about a 100 seats from its 2019 tally
Where I pointed out that Balakot might be a game changer for the BJP
In which I explain how BJP’s 2019 election campaign was a poll capture through other means
Where I pointed out 8 factors that could determine BJP’s electoral fortunes
In which I explained the discrepancy between ground reports and opinion/exit polls in this election
Where I explain why the BJP’s tally could be even higher than predicted by exit polls
Karnataka is the first state where we can be sure of a clear trend: The BJP is set to improve upon its 2014 tally of 17 seats out of 28. It is headed for 23 at this stage. This is a significant gain in the face of the Congress-JDS alliance, and a rebuff to the political theatre of the Kumaraswamy government.
In Karnataka, the BJP leading in all seats, except Rohtak. As the exit polls predicted.
In the BJP vs Congress battleground, the BJP is sweeping everywhere except in Madhya Pradesh.
By now, the big picture is clear and we can call this election. The NDA is headed for a majority, perhaps bigger than it had last time. In all probability, the BJP may end up with a clear majority as well. So, the exit polls were not wrong.
The broad regional picture is also clear. The East, that is West Bengal, Odisha and northeast, is likely to contribute 25-30 seats to the NDA kitty. Uttar Pradesh is causing less damage than everyone thought — the BJP may lose less than 20 seats in UP. In the rest of the country, the BJP seems to be broadly repeating its performance from 2014. All in all, the BJP stays where it was, but also gains a bit. The NDA gains partly because it is a bigger alliance than it was last time.
Once again, the BJP has overwhelmed the Congress in all the states that saw a direct BJP-Congress contest. It is sweeping Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, too, despite losing the state assembly elections, the BJP is winning almost all the seats. So, the principal failure of the opposition is that of the Congress’.
Alliance is not the answer
For those who thought opposition mahagathbandhan was the answer to the BJP, the trend so far is a clear disappointment. In Karnataka, the BJP increased its seats despite the JD(S)-Congress alliance. In Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP alliance does not seem to be preventing the BJP-Shiv Sena from repeating its past performance. In Jharkhand, opposition alliance is overwhelmed. The worst news for opposition gathbandhan is from Bihar, where the JD(U), the LJP and the BJP alliance seems to be trouncing the Congress-RJD alliance. Clearly, alliance is not the answer.
Lessons from Uttar Pradesh
If there is one lesson from Uttar Pradesh, it is that pure caste arithmetic is not sufficient to respond to the BJP. As per the exit poll estimate, the BJP was headed for more than 50 seats, which almost no ground report foresaw. Clearly, the BJP not only managed to match the SP-BSP-RLD caste arithmetic, but also outperformed them with its larger appeal, notwithstanding the rather poor reputation of Yogi Adityanath government.
As per latest trends, the BJP+ is leading on 57 seats, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance on 22 seats and the Congress on one seat.
The author is the National President of Swaraj India. Views are personal.
Change of personnel is always part of a second term, even for a US President. The ruling party must have a good idea of those who are adding to its performance and political capital, those who are not. UP would gain from a fine CM.
If not for Mr Narendra Modi, yogi would have been a gone case.
Mr Yogendra , you do a good analysis of political situation, I suggest you forget about fighting elections in india its not your cup of tea.
Ha, ha..YY is what we call ‘jhola type’. Nothing wrong with the humble jhola (as long as it is NOT from Khan Market), but just that how people like him want us to believe they are carrying all the wisdom in the world. But as you rightly said, he does good analysis. However, deep down he also suffers from a complex, mixed with admiration and envy for Modi. He is well aware that Modi is giant that he secretly aspired to be, but failed.