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Why BJP is staring at a loss of nearly 100 seats from 2014 tally

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If you know what would happen to the BJP in the Hindi belt, you know the outcome of the 2019 elections.

“So, what’s it looking like?” I anticipate this question, even before it is asked. I know I am expected to carry in my pocket a forecast of the 2019 elections. I deflect the question with a one-liner: “Pahle bhavishya batata tha, ab bhavishya banata hoon (I’m now into making futures, not telling it)”. It doesn’t work. Then I offer cold reason: “Look, I don’t have access to survey data of my choice any more”. They agree, but persist. I try to disarm: “The tragedy of being a politician is that people tell me only what they think I wish to hear, so I know much less than you do.” The incredulous look tells me they don’t believe me one bit.

Here it goes, then: All you wanted to know about the 2019 elections outcome, but didn’t know who else to ask. Remember, it comes with a statutory warning: The author is a political activist who does not pretend to be neutral but strives to be truthful.

Truth is that you don’t have to be a psephologist (whatever that means) to understand the basic outlines of the battle of 2019. All the theoretical apparatus you need is political common sense. It would be useful to refer to an archive of past election results, especially the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections, 2014.

Also read: There are two ways opposition can beat Modi in 2019—and mahagathbandhan is not one of them

The best way to know about trends of public opinion would be to refer to either India Today’s six-monthly Mood of the Nation series or the ABP-CSDS Mood of the Nation series. My personal favourite is the detailed report put out by the CSDS-Lokniti team. [Full disclosure: I was in the founding team of CSDS-Lokniti, but have no connection now with the surveys or its reports, which have vastly improved since I left the team!]. If you want to track changes in the last few weeks, you might want to check out the weekly tracker of India Today’s Political Stock Exchange and the latest all-India poll done by C-Voter for ABP. I have many issues with both these latest surveys, but even a straw poll is better than drawing room gossip.

Let us think of India as five regions, each representing a distinct kind of battleground. And for the time being, let us focus on the fortunes of the BJP. Luckily, you don’t have to keep tabs on all the five regions for this election. The battle of ballots in 2019 will be decided in one of these battlegrounds, the ‘Hindi heartland’ (heartland of Hindi speakers, not India’s heartland!). The logic is simple. Compared to its performance in the 2014 elections, the BJP is poised to make some gains in the East. These gains would be more than offset by its small losses in the West, the South and the tiny Northern region. The entire balance would thus depend upon the Hindi heartland region. If you know what would happen to the BJP in the Hindi belt, you know the outcome of the 2019 elections.

Graphic by Arindam Mukherjee/ThePrint
Graphic by Arindam Mukherjee/ThePrint

Let us now look at each of these battlegrounds closely and understand why the BJP is jittery, notwithstanding its public grandstanding.

East (88 seats) 

Graphic by Arindam Mukherjee/ThePrint

The East offers the BJP its only growth possibility over 2014. It won 11 seats in this entire region and thus has room to grow. All credible polls indicate that its support base is growing in Odisha at the expense of the Congress and in Bengal at the expense of the Left Front. The BJP has followed the old Congress strategy of acquisition and merger to register unprecedented growth in the northeast. The BJP will be a force to reckon with in east India. The only question is whether it can convert its additional votes into additional seats this election. As of now, the BJP appears to have crossed that threshold in Odisha, but not in Bengal. It may overtake the Left to emerge as the runner-up in Bengal, but it is still way short of challenging Mamata Banerjee’s hegemony. It cannot grow more in Assam, but is likely to pick additional seats in the hill states of the northeast. All in all, the BJP may pick up to 20 additional seats from this region.

West (78 seats) 

Graphic by Arindam Mukherjee/ThePrint

The West is likely to witness a business-as-usual election with a small dent in the BJP tally. It swept this region in 2014 by winning all but six seats. Since then, anti-incumbency has hit it in all the three states. Rural unrest in Gujarat, farmers’ agitation in Maharashtra, its troubles with the Shiv Sena and the unholy and proxy government in Goa appear to have set the stage against the BJP in the region. Yet, the surveys suggest that the BJP can contain its losses. A Gujarati PM can help the party reverse some of its assembly poll setbacks in Gujarat. In Maharashtra, if the Shiv Sena goes back to the BJP, the NDA can take on the combined strength of the NCP-Congress alliance. In sum: The BJP may keep its losses to about 15-20 seats in this region.

Also read: Ram is all set to be the game-changer for Narendra Modi in 2019

South (132 seats)

Graphic by Arindam Mukherjee/ThePrint

The South is likely to witness a series of critical elections that can shape the future of state politics. But precisely for this reason, the Lok Sabha election is likely to be focused on regional issues and personalities. Modi vs Rahul presidential-style contest makes no sense here. The BJP has low stakes in the region, as it won only 22 seats here in the last election, of which 17 came from Karnataka. All indicators suggest that the BJP will remain a marginal player in this region. The BJP’s attempt to acquire the AIADMK seems to have failed. The DMK appears to have taken an early lead in this critical first election after the departure of Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, leaving the BJP in the cold. The BJP’s brazen stoking of communal passions in Sabarimala may help it make a breakthrough in Kerala. If so, it would be critical, but may not mean much in terms of numbers. Both Andhra and Telangana are likely to witness regional battles with little space for the BJP or the NDA, since Chandrababu Naidu has broken off from the BJP. The results of recent by-elections in Karnataka suggest that popular disgust with the Kumaraswamy coalition government may be overcome by the combined strength of the forced marriage between the JD(S) and the Congress. We do not know yet if the BJP would strike a rewarding alliance in Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh, but as of now, the BJP looks like it’s shedding 5-10 seats in this region.

North (19 seats) 

Graphic by Arindam Mukherjee/ThePrint

The North is not much of a separate region. It is just that the politics of Punjab and J&K does not fit into the pattern of the Hindi-speaking states. If one goes by the record of the local bodies elections and the implosion within the AAP, the Congress appears set to make small gains in Punjab. But that or a splintered verdict in the J&K hardly affects the national equation. It might add up to a loss of 3-4 seats for the BJP.

Let us take a stock of all the 317 seats we have surveyed so far. In 2014, the BJP had won 91 seats out of these. This time the picture is unlikely to change very much. The BJP’s losses in the South, mainly in Karnataka, may be the net loss for the party in all these regions put together. All in all, we are looking at the BJP winning anything between 80-90 seats in the non-Hindi speaking states of the country. Let us say it is 91: No losses, no gains for the BJP. For the sake of simplicity, therefore, we can forget the rest of India in the electoral arithmetic of 2019. The final outcome depends entirely on how well the BJP can retain its tally in the Hindi heartland. Let us turn to that.

Also read: Why Amit Shah and BJP’s Mission 350 for 2019 looks unreal

Hindi heartland (226 seats)

Graphic by Arindam Mukherjee/ThePrint

The Hindi heartland is where the battle of 2019 will be won or lost. The BJP swept this region with 192 seats (203, if you add NDA’s allies in Bihar and UP). And that is the problem for the BJP. It can only go down from where it reached in 2014. All indications are that it will, almost everywhere in this region. Bihar may be an exception, as the BJP has recovered its alliance with the JD(U) to take on the resurgent and united opposition as well as to cut its losses. Polls suggest that the BJP state governments in Jharkhand, Haryana and Uttarakhand are very unpopular and would cost the party at least 10 seats in these three states. Nor is the party in a position to repeat its sweep in Delhi. While there are different projections of the mood of the electorate in the upcoming assembly elections, everyone agrees that the BJP faces a rout in Rajasthan and a serious challenge in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Past records show that in these states, the assembly verdict is repeated in the Lok Sabha results. If so, the BJP could easily lose 30 seats in these poll-bound states. All in all, the BJP is looking at a loss of up to 50 seats in these Hindi-speaking states.

That leaves Uttar Pradesh. It takes no genius to see that the impending SP-BSP alliance, that looks pretty robust as of now, could potentially reverse the 2014 verdict. The alliance can defeat the BJP in about 50 seats. To make matters worse for the ruling party, polls suggest that the Yogi Adityanath government is losing popular traction within two years of its historic victory. As things stand today, the BJP could lose up to 50 seats in UP alone and another 50 in the rest of the Hindi heartland.

Also read: BJP likely to win over 300 seats in 2019, shows party’s own survey

Is that how the big election would play out in the Hindi heartland? We cannot be sure. This is the one region that may not see only state-level contests. This is where the BJP would try and turn the elections into a presidential-style contest between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. Mr Modi’s popularity rating is way ahead of Rahul Gandhi’s. The level of satisfaction with the Central government is much higher than satisfaction with BJP’s state governments. This is also the region that is more susceptible to the Ram temple propaganda and hate mongering that the BJP has started resorting to. At the same time, this region has seen very little of the vikas promised by Mr Modi, has suffered most from loss of jobs and has been hit by farmers’ distress. The battle for the future of India will be fought as Jawan-Kisan versus Hindu-Mussalman in the battlefields of the Hindi heartland.

As things stand today, the BJP is staring at a loss of 100 seats from the peak it attained in 2014. Unless something changes dramatically, there is no way the BJP can touch the 200 seat mark necessary for it to cobble up a majority. That would effectively put paid to Mr Modi’s prospects of a re-election. A lot can change between now and the election time. But that’s what it’s looking like. For now.

Yogendra Yadav is National President of Swaraj India.

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  1. BharatMata ki Jai. An interesting analysis and forecast,150 days ahead of the polls. The BJP almost got the Janata route, albeit in a unique way. It did not crumble, but has traversed its course and will complete the full term. If it did not crumble, the reason is absence of an Indira Gandhi. And, yes, Chaudhary. Next allies deserted. First Sena and last Desam. That will have an impact. If someone wants a recipe to fritter away goodwill and lose popularity and public esteem, BJP gives for free both recipe and menu gor disaster. Let Us not talk of achhe din or swiss money nefted in our bank accounts. Having achieved the impossible, the BJP must have focussed on administration…., Clean and simple helping all strata of each constituency. It must have stopped mocking at Maa Beta. It must have stayed above board and given a good administration. What nonsense the public debate was on paav bhaji or kalyani Biryani, or whatever.
    Many things. Back to the point . I have been telling my circle for the past two years …… Not linked to Remonetisation. It is an uphill task for NaMo and BJP
    Look, within nine months it fall flat on the ground and bloodied its nose and muddied its face. Notwithstanding the boast of tem crore membership, it got a kick in the back from a former ally in Bihar. Gujarat is no victory. Mere clinging to power. Tripura should be no consolation.
    If BJP clamoured for change in Tripura, it must honour that rule in MP. It has written off Rajasthan
    Look, voter do not blindly vote for the party or its leader. Amit Shah may be Sitaram Kesri Incarnate. Yet indian voter has a unique style. Times have changed. . in 1977 Indira was routed
    In2004 Vajpayee was routed
    Many factors helped the BJP in 2014. Anna Hazare, Amir Khan and SG (scam g). It is an onerous task , but the BJP can enact a variant of Kargil incursion.
    From DayOne, border has witnessed heinous acts. But can we wake up now? All of a sudden.

  2. Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist,Barnala(Punjab)

    The equation is very simple !

    The Opposition has learnt its lessons !

    The post May 15 Karnataka Assembly Poll Results Saga did offer it
    MAGICAL FORMULA to write a new political narrative serving as an
    eye-opener !

    Mr. Yogendra Yadav- a seasoned psephologist turned politician is alright
    going in for analysis of the ensuing 2019 Lok Sabha Polls applying his
    own yardsticks !

    But to my mind, the avenues are quite bright for the opposition to tame
    BJP if it does not follow suicidal mode of splitting opposition votes !
    Nothing typical for the opposition now, it has to dodge the BJP by plugging
    all the loopeholes in the Post May 15, 2018 Karnataka Assembly Poll Results
    Saga Style adhering to NATION ABOVE EVERYTHING spirit !

    It is indeed the latest time tested experiment which opposition must stick to in
    in the best interests of INDIA that is BHARAT !

    Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist
    Pom Anm Nest, Barnala (Punjab )

  3. All the people here saying how Yadav is biased and his opinion can’t be taken seriously, please also explain which part of his assessment is incorrect or wrong.

    It would help us all.

  4. ऐसे मुंगेरीलाल रोज सपने देखते है। 400 सीटें मिलेंगी, और नवभारत का निर्माण आरम्भ होगा।

  5. The disclaimers made by Mr Yadav are in order; however he has not disclosed everything. His is a biased viewpoint and without hearing the arguments of the other camp, it would be incorrect to draw any conclusions. For example : “Bjp will not get more than 80 seats” says Congress spokesperson does not carry too much weight.

  6. I agree with your assessment, it would be Herculean task for modi and Amit shah to repeat 2014. Opposition would be more United this time. Modi has lost a big constiuecy of voters who voted for development last they are again simmering the religion plot.

  7. Perhaps for the first time I noted that Sh.Yogendra Yadav has faltered miserably in drawing conclusions.One reason could be he is no langer a unbiased psephologist rather has become a ‘Ghagh’ politician so conclusions have been designed on political consideration not on merits. It is really disheartening to see the pitiful decline of an independent intellectual to a nasty politician.

  8. My comment of 7.53 pm today has been tampered with (at THE PRINT) in the last line. I had put four emoji symbols to give it a lighter touch, but here I see a long string of question marks! That unnecessarily makes it rude which was not my intention. Even Mr Rathore’s comment on which mine is aimed has a lighthearted touch to it.

    Kindly have this comment suitably modified at THE PRINT before putting it on line. Otherwise I would like to withdraw it. Thanks

  9. What if The Receipt does not comes out as required than how it would be claimed that one Voter pressed X button but the Receipt says it was Y.
    Ha..Ha..Ha..एक पुरानी कहानी है सर्वविदित,
    रामायण की गाथा में था “एक बाली, जिसके सामने सब का ‘बल’ का 50% बाली ले जाता था ऑटोमेटिकॉली ”
    तो भइया, मोदी जी को वरदान “अम्बानी” ने दिया है आपके vote का 50% मोदी @बाली हर लेगा ।”
    आप चिल्लाते रहना…..☺️

    • Rathod ji, if the EVM is SUPPOSED to produce a receipt and the receipts stop coming out, then common sense says that vote-casting will be temporarily suspended at that booth until the problem is rectified. Benefit of doubt nahin milega.

      Bali ki kahani chhodiye Sir ji, Ambani ne toh Modi ji ka bahl half nahin ZERO KAR DIYA HAI !! Bina chhillaye bhi Bhagwan sun leta hai. Issi tarah se nyaay karta hai woh — Jo apne-aap ko bhagwan samajhne lagey uski budhhi bhatka detaa hai. ????????????????

  10. YY is a good writer and his assessment might be just right. But I think what I read in one of comments is more apt. BJP is not going to be defeated it’s going to be routed. Then we come to the EVM issue which I feel needs to be addressed legally now. The EC needs to be reigned in . In Delhi they just deleted 10 lakh voters. This should count as a criminal offence. Overall the country is in choppy waters till 2022. I hope AAP manages to organise itself by then to pose as a national alternative by then. Jai Hind

  11. The BJP faces a formidable challenge from the SP BSP combine in UP. Don’t be surprised if at the time of the elections Ajit Singhs RLD and even the Congress join this alliance. Yogendra Ji is spot on, as things stand the BJP has a mountain to climb in UP.

  12. Sorry.
    You may call me anti national yet I strongly opine:
    Presence of international observers in forthcoming elections is a MUST.

  13. The Opposition must insist on the use of PAPER in some form in voting — either as paper receipts coming out of EVMs, or as paper ballot. To this day I have not been able to fathom how the BJP could win in UP so close on the heels of demonetization which had completely destroyed the lives of the masses.

    EVM is not programmable, true, but it DOES HAVE a program built into it in a ROM chip. This program is entered into the ROM at the manufacturing stage, the process being called “burning the ROM”. As the terminology suggests, the program cannot be “unburnt” later, meaning it cannot be changed, but a DEFECTIVE program CAN BE entered at the manufacturing stage. Or, the ROM itself can be removed and a defectively programmed ROM inserted in its place. This is definitely at least a theoretical possibility.

    A correctly programmed or “burnt” ROM will advance the counter X by one when button X is pressed once. A defective ROM could advance the counter Y by one when button X is pressed! Buttons X and Y being the buttons representing political parties X and Y. Or, the fault may be introduced more subtly: the malfunction would occur after 2 or 3 presses, etc.

    But if a receipt comes out of the EVM on each press, then every voter will be able to SEE whether his vote has been recorded by the machine correctly or not.

    • BJP won the UP elections BECAUSE of demonetisation, not inspite it. It was a political masterstroke. It wiped out all the black money of BJP’s opponents, at the same time Mr.Modi came out looking like a pro poor revolutionary, taking the fight to the big, corrupt, black money hoarding rich folks, and a nationalist, targetting funding of terrorist organisations. The poor people of india are not driven by truth, they are driven by emotion. Most were happy that that this sacrifice of theirs will make the lives of corrupt rich elite miserable. My childhood friend’s father is in RBI, he is regional director of a big state. Over dinner once, i asked him what he thought was the real reasom for demonitisation, him being high up in the RBI..He looked down, smirked, leaned and whispered:”UP jeetna tha, jeet liya”(They wanted to win UP elections, and they did)..

  14. A friend who dropped in to wish me Diwali asked me what the tally would be. 175, I said, guardedly, given to caution. I think it will be 150, he said.

  15. I don’t know why Yogendra Yadav is getting confused with all these graphs and statistics etc. That’s the problem with researchers. They depend too much on “mind”. They forget that poor people do not think from their head but from their heart and their stomach.

    To say that BJP will get only a 100 seats less (out of an earlier 300) is to say that only one third of the poor are disillusioned with Modi. I know that percentage of votes is not proportional to the percentage of seats, BUT THAT IS TRUE IN MULTI-PRONGED CONTESTS. In near-bipolar contests as is most likely to happen this time, with all opposition not dissecting each other’s votes but presenting a UNITED ONE force against BJP, the above mentioned proportionality WILL WORK.

    So, by this logic, what am I trying to say? That, because all the poor people are disillusioned, all will vote against Modi and BJP? Yes, that is precisely what I’m trying to say. And by this logic, the BJP will not be just defeated, IT WILL BE ROUTED!

    And that brings us to the million dollar question — doesn’t the BJP know this? In other words, will the elections at all be held in 2019?! Or is EXACTLY the 1975 going to be repeated? Hahaha, people like Yogendra Yadav think they know all. My gut feeling is, it is only God who knows all.

    • Your logic seems strong to me. At least the first part. BJP definitely knows it will be taken to task in the heartland region. Therefore, conjure up the vision of a grand temple (reminds me of the Temple of Doom in Indiana Jones) and organise a few riots. People in the Hindi belt love riots. I once really believed that they are all bigots. They are not. They are not religious enough by nature and if you are not religious enough, you are unlikely to be a religious bigotry. Staying in the north for the last two years, I have learnt the real reason why rioting is a popular pastime here: these people love to break laws. If BJP manages to give them a satisfactory amount of their favourite entertainment (or shall I say enough of the bread and circus for plebians), BJP will win many seats.

  16. You haven’t considered the power of the young generation – the ones below 30 years – to influence the result of elections. This is a growing percentage amongst voters, around 20-30% I think. There may be anger and disillusionment amongst older people, but this generation is still pinning all their hopes on Modi. They firmly believe that he is the only one who can deliver on their dreams. They are not yet disillusioned and this is amply evident from all the TV interviews of voters in Rajasthan, MP, etc. While there is no basis for their hopes, as can be seen from the factors you have outlined above, I think they will play the most important role in determining the outcome of the elections.

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