US President Joe Biden dropping out as the chief guest of India’s Republic Day celebrations next year is a manifestation of the growing divide within the US administration’s views about the Narendra Modi government.
On the face of it, the cancellation of Biden’s trip has to do with the fact that 2024 is an election year back home, and the Democratic Party is worried about the resurgence of Donald Trump — especially when the 81-year-old Biden’s slow and halting moves isn’t exactly setting the Potomac on fire.
Biden is also faced with several tough challenges that would be difficult for a much younger and far brighter man. The wars in Ukraine and in Gaza are both tough on the budget of the US government as well as on the Democratic Party’s centre-Left credentials.
The Democratic Party is worried that a weak Biden may not be able to withstand the growing enchantment of Trump in the US electorate.
Under these circumstances, Biden’s proximity to Prime Minister Narendra Modi — his presence as Republic Day chief guest, for example — is increasingly seen as contentious. And this is not just because Modi is an openly hyper-nationalist figure, but one whose independent foreign policy-making, such as buying oil from Russia during the Ukraine war, makes him stand up to the Americans.
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Democrats and Modi
The traditional wing of the Democratic Party has been unhappy about several matters related to the Modi government, such as its alleged targeting of minorities and the crackdown on international social media companies like X. They are unhappier that the US administration, led by Biden, has been giving Modi a long rope.
Now, it seems as if the Democratic Party is exhibiting an informal schism regarding Modi himself.
The growing split has come to a head with the alleged involvement of an Indian official in the targeting of US-Canadian citizen and pro-Khalistan activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. However, the truth is that these differences have been apparent for some time.
During this period, Biden took the view that the US had no alternative but to be friends with India. That’s because India was the only country in the region with the potential to counter China. Both Democrats and Republicans know that China is the US’ unofficial Enemy Number One.
If that meant Biden had to make nice with Modi — well, then, so be it.
However, this policy seems to be running aground with the alleged targeting of Pannun. For someone to allegedly orchestrate a hit job on a US citizen, in the wake of accusations that an Indian government official was also involved in the murder of a Canadian national, seems to have seriously upped the concern quotient in the Democrat Party.
Some Democrats are also pointing to Modi’s approval of Trump four years ago. The Prime Minister had cheered “abki baar, Trump sarkar” at the Howdy Modi event in Houston, Texas in 2019. And even though Modi went the extra mile these last four years to make it up to Biden and the Democrats, old suspicions have a habit of rising to the top in a tough election year.
Biden certainly has given his approval to Modi, but it has come at a heavy, political price. “There are so many fires that have been fought on behalf of Modi in the US administration, that there isn’t much left to give,” one US official said on the condition of anonymity.
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Political stakes of bilateral ties
Surprisingly, the Left-wing faction of the US government, which appears to be asserting itself, is also making seriously critical noises about the Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina, without understanding the serious political stakes in Bangladesh.
But the Americans — or at least the Democrats — have made their decision about the haughty Hasina. No matter who is in the opposition and what colour of political belief, anyone is better than her for them. US ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas has been accused of meeting opposition leaders in the country in an attempt to unseat Hasina.
With Modi, the Americans fully understand that he faces no challenges. The recent assembly polls made that clear again. But this doesn’t mean that the US administration should stop short of criticising Modi, Democrats say.
So, Biden skipping India’s Republic Day celebrations is grounded in domestic politics, but also in the factionalised Democratic perception of Modi. And one of them is winning.
Jyoti Malhotra is founder-editor of Awaaz South Asia web platform. She tweets @jomalhotra. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)
An article bereft of facts, full of conjectures and a half hearted attempt to peddle sub standard journalism. Looks like you guys are really living up to your standards!
The democratic backslide in India hasn’t gone unnoticed in the US. Well, the democratic backslide in several US states doesn’t help because the Democrats want to be on the right side of the issue. Tricky for Biden who is more grounded. It would help India stopped arresting journalists, raiding news organizations and opposition party members, and if PM Modi actually subjected himself to the press.