Chinese commentary frames Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, his first in seven years and also the first since the Galwan clash of 2020, as far more than a routine diplomatic trip.
Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, called it a “big development” with implications beyond the region, signalling both sides’ willingness to normalise ties. Online discussions, under the Weibo hashtag ‘Modi will visit China from 31 August to 1 September’, have attracted over a million views, revealing perspectives ranging from cautious curiosity to pointed geopolitical speculations.
One commentator described the scheduled visit as a high-stakes overture: “From freezing point to recovery,” reflecting a perceived thaw in bilateral relations. Headlines and comments ranged from the dramatic: “After being abandoned by the United States, Modi plans to come to China for help” to the metaphorical: “Modi’s visit to China is like a depth charge, shaking Washington’s abacus to pieces.” A Weibo post quipped, “There is only one country in the world Donald Trump can’t afford to mess with, only China can protect Modi.”
From Beijing’s perspective, Modi appears cornered, militarily constrained, economically squeezed by US tariffs, and politically scrutinised by Washington. Chinese commentators describe the visit as a tactical, chess-like manoeuvre, an effort to protect India’s interests and strategic autonomy, secure critical resources, and advocate for a multipolar world while balancing the pressures of both China and the US.
India walking a tightrope
Chinese analysts characterise Modi’s trip as “half-step diplomacy”, a careful balancing act to maximise India’s strategic flexibility. India is seen as seeking greater access to Chinese markets, rare earth minerals, and participation in de-dollarisation initiatives with China, Russia, and Iran.
The SCO visit is read as a strategic recalibration of India’s foreign policy under external pressure, rather than efforts to court China. Chinese commentary suggests that India’s over–reliance on the US has exposed limits to its autonomy, while China’s restraint and pragmatic cooperation offer a model for navigating a turbulent world. From Beijing’s viewpoint, sudden US policy shifts have advanced long-standing Chinese objectives, prompting India to reconsider its position.
Modi’s constrained itinerary, confined to Tianjin, with no stops in Beijing or attendance at China’s victory parade on 3 September, is interpreted as a deliberate signal that engagement is multilateral, cautious, and limited in trust. Chinese analysts emphasise pragmatism on India’s part, reading Modi’s avoidance of China’s parade as a calculated move to avoid offending Washington, which they describe as a “difficult opponent.” One Weibo post asked, “In the latest tariffs announced by Trump, India is the biggest loser. Modi’s decision to visit China under huge pressure – is it a change of heart, or just political calculation?”
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A cautious thaw
Chinese analysts, however, advise India to approach its relationship with China sincerely. They interpret Modi’s visit as purpose-driven that could, in their view, weaken the US Indo-Pacific strategy. With Chinese support, they argue, the impact of US sanctions on India would be significantly reduced. From Beijing’s perspective, India’s careful navigation between Washington and China reflects a measured, self-interested strategy. One Weibo user commented: “India is not leaning towards China; Modi is reminding the US not to push him, otherwise he can choose sides.”
Regional dynamics also feature in the Chinese commentary. One post highlighted, “Wang Yi visiting India was important, but we cannot afford to lose the other,” referring to the Chinese foreign minister’s immediate trip to Pakistan this month for the Sixth China-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue.
Caution dominates expectations. One analyst wrote, “It is unrealistic to expect India to fully side with China or greatly strengthen cooperation.”
Lin Minwang, a professor at Fudan University, captures the tension: “The Indian ruling class is full of contradictions in its perception of China. It wants to use China to balance the US but cannot let go of the Cold War mentality.” Chinese narrative also points to India’s deepening security ties with Japan and naval exercises with the Philippines as evidence of a “geo-competitive mentality.”
Meanwhile, Su Hao, director of the Center for Strategy and Peace Studies, China Foreign Affairs University, notes that China’s exports of rare earths, fertilisers, and shield machinery to India signal a shift in relations, urging India to act sincerely to preserve the opportunity. Zhang Shuai, a researcher at the Belt and Road Research Center and the India Research Center of Lanzhou University, observes that as long as the border remains relatively stable, economic complementarity could translate into tangible cooperation, though mutual political suspicion will likely persist. “Limited cooperation and bottom-line competition may become the new normal between China and India,” Zhang concludes.
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The limits of trust
In Beijing’s narrative, Modi’s visit opens the door for engagement, but on China’s terms. Analysts portray India’s gestures as calculated, pragmatic, and weighed carefully against the US policies. While tariffs and international pressure may nudge India closer to China, genuine trust, in Chinese eyes, will take time as many in Beijing see the US as India’s strategic partner and China as an “imagined rival” to project domestic political toughness.
For Chinese commentators, India’s careful steps reveal a country navigating the rise of China cautiously, pragmatically, and with its own interests firmly in mind. Yet even as analysts speak of cooperation and urge India to engage sincerely, the onus of normalisation is placed squarely on India, framing it as responsible for past deterioration. The discourse underscores India’s difficult geopolitical position and its dependence on the US and China.
The crux remains that the fundamental differences are still intact, not only in bilateral ties but also within the SCO, for which Modi is visiting China. His visit may mark a symbolic step forward, but durable peace cannot emerge without China’s willingness to confront India’s concerns head-on.
Sana Hashmi is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)