After the largest single-day increase in the number of novel coronavirus cases in India, it has never been clearer that the pandemic is upon us and the next few weeks are going to throw up a scenario that many still find hard to imagine. From the data we have, here’s a look at the near future, and what the Narendra Modi government needs to do.
India is hitting a period of exponential growth
It took India forty days to reach the first 50 cases, five more days to reach 100 cases, three more days to reach 150 cases and then just two more days to reach 200 cases. From here on, the juggernaut is going to roll fast.
The number of confirmed cases in India is now doubling in five days or less, down from six days earlier this month. This puts India in line with trajectories of countries across the world — in the United States, cases are now doubling every two days.
Italy discovered its first case 10 days after South Korea. For another 20 days it had less than 10 cases, even as South Korea’s case count began to rise steadily. But then in a span of one frightening week, Italy’s case count multiplied a hundredfold. Within the next week, South Korea began to flatten the curve, while Italy’s case count continues to skyrocket, completely overwhelming its health system. India needs to try to move its own growth curve away from the Italy trajectory, and fast, with strict implementation of the social distancing measures it has already announced, if not even stricter lockdowns.
Moreover, these are only confirmed cases; to ascertain the true number of cases, India will need to ramp up its conservative testing. On Friday, the Modi government took one small step closer to that by expanding testing to those hospitalised with respiratory distress who did not have known contact with a person with foreign travel history.
India is set for an explosion of cases
At this rate of growth, and assuming the 3.4 per cent fatality rate relative to confirmed cases calculated by the World Health Organization, India is headed for nearly a million confirmed cases by the end of May and over 30,000 deaths. These are conservative estimates. A team of bio-statisticians used predictive modelling and estimated that the number could be even higher, reaching nearly a million cases by 15 May instead.
Sudden single-day spikes, or a higher ratio of estimated to confirmed cases — nearly impossible to put a number to in the absence of more widespread testing — could tip these numbers higher, faster. By assuming that there are eight times as many undiscovered as confirmed cases, Indian software entrepreneur Mayank Chhabra estimated over five million cases and over 1.7 lakh deaths by the end of May.
Many people do not yet realise the severity of what lies ahead — these numbers are vital, particularly in the context of India where the majority of workers do not have job protections. A compensation package on the lines of the one announced by Kerala will be essential pan-India for the long haul ahead.
This will mean health systems will be overwhelmed
With a ratio of just 0.5 beds per 1,000 people as of 2017, India’s existing healthcare infrastructure will be swamped in the coming months. At the current rate of growth of confirmed cases, by early June, India will be out of hospital beds. Factoring in usual bed availability and a faster doubling rate, Chhabra estimates India will be out of hospital beds by the end of April.
The number of critical care beds and ventilators in India is not officially known, but is believed to be sharply lacking. With ICU beds estimated at 70,000 nationally, if even one out of every 10 cases was to require an ICU bed by the end of May, India would be running at full capacity, if not earlier.
Richer countries have struggled, with Italian doctors having to make the impossible decision of choosing who gets a ventilator and who does not, and the army being called in to produce medical supplies. The United States is heading there. Unofficial estimates of the number of ventilators in India stand at around 40,000. Yet, apart from assuring that there are “sufficient ventilators”, the Modi government has been thin on detail on the ramping up of critical care that it is, or should be, doing.
Some states in particular will struggle, hard
Indian states vary widely in capacity on all counts, including health. The poorest states are also the ones with the weakest capacity to deliver health outcomes. In June 2019, the Niti Aayog’s ranking of states on health found that “the health outcomes of some states are comparable to that of some upper middle-income countries and high-income countries (for example, Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) in Kerala is similar to that of Brazil or Argentina), while some other states have health outcomes similar to those of the poorest countries in the world (for example, NMR in Odisha is close to that of Sierra Leone).”
Bihar has just one government hospital bed for every 1 lakh people, while Goa has 20. In Italy, in comparison, the rate of infection has now reached 1 in every 1,280 people. Chhattisgarh has 71 per cent vacancies for specialists at district hospitals. Despite an established treatment plan, Uttar Pradesh has a treatment success rate of just 64 per cent for new microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis cases. Just 15 per cent of facilities at Bihar’s First Referral Units were functional.
There is no clear sign yet that the Modi government will be able to help these states make up for their lack of health care infrastructure, or, even, that it can be done at this late stage.
The time to act was yesterday.
The author is a Chennai-based data journalist. Views are personal.
This article has been updated to reflect that the number of ventilators in India, according to several statements, is 40,000.
Some people are calling this article worthless thing and etc.. but you see what happened to the other countries and as per this article this is a warning to all of us that this pandemic can create bizzare scenes in india. As you can see many peoples still didnt take this situation seriously.
Yes , the delayed action by Modi government has caused much problem . without any planning the sudden lockdown had created more problems for the people of all sections. The government had not foresight the magnitude of this pandamic or some of reasons overlooked it.
I think that it is an overestimate and such an estimate will create panic. So such a thing should not be published in Media. After lockdown, first, five days had shown a decrease in the rate but Tablighi Jamat has added the numbers due to its carelessness and slackness of Delhi Government and Delhi Police. These people have created problems for many state governments as they are not coming out voluntarily to get themselves tested and isolated in case of positive symptoms. However, I hope that things will be in control in 3-4 days. The irresponsible role of some religious leaders and social media has created more problems. But, I have noticed one major change which is quite positive that people are now getting serious after Tablighi Jamat’s case in Delhi and movement on roads has reduced drastically in Bengaluru. I hope that people are more serious about the problem now and they are following social distancing to great extent except in a few cases during the shopping of vegetables in a few parts of the country.
I request to avoid such negative reports as it creates negativity resulting in unlawful activites.
IIagree with you
Irrespective of what Author says , it is true that in case of epidemic , only God has helped India.Be it meningitis in Bihar or Dengue in Delhi everywhere God(climate) has only helped. Healthcare system could not rise to the occasion.India has taken care of small pox or TB or malaria but over more than a decade. I donot recall our healthcare system helped it.Eventoday if nature helps, Corona will die otherwise Govt resources are hopelessly inadequate. It is shocking that simple item mask, sanitiser etc couldnot be provisioned in Feb/ March 2020. Had Govt floated one tender in mid Feb to supply 10 crore mask( with design) our MSME would have supplied by 10 March.Same is case with test kits. Same is case with ventilators.Agreed China did not care for world but what stopped India to act in Jan 2020.Our planning is poor. We declare first lockdown then keep on planning for migrant labour.Why did we not foresee?
That is why we say if God does exist , it is only in India.
So it high time that India changes slogan to GOD HAI TO NUMKIN HAI.!
This is not a direct exponential calculation we are dealing with here. Anyone can calculate the exponential growth numbers and put the bizzare data to shock the wits out of people. What matters is the measures to break the chain. China, though being the source of virus has set an example as to how the virus can be dealt with, as long as we adhere to social distancing, self quarantine and other disciplinary measures. And countries like USA and Italy are examples of how even the superpowers can fell flat if the virus is dealt on with negligently during the early stages.
Bro China cannot be an example as it has been trying to hide every information from who.we can’t even trust whether they had just 81000 cases or more.(I don’t know why China is an example )they are always backstabbers
China has put the JAMAAT in concentration camps.
That said, the writer is on weeds.
Writers like u should be banned
PM apologies as usual to sidetrack incompetence. Media reports claims small country like Singapore banned international flights with effective from 18th January whereas Modi government implemented during 2nd week of March costs the country heavily. Opposition warnings in Parliament ignored. Government totally busy with big brother NAMASTE TRUMP road shows/photo operations during end of February biggest blunder considering at that time virus peak stage all over the globe. Poor accountability indian’s way of life. Hard decisions like banning international flights not implemented in crucial period like miss the bus.
Sonia should talk more about Italy.
Tablighi Jamat has caused a huge spike. Hope the govt can jail all these stone pelters and spitting on doctors freaks booked under NSA like Shivraj Singh did in Indore.
Such a stupid post amid such crisis ,
ok you can close your eyes like the pigeon who does this to save itself from a coming threat
Dear ;Ms.Rukmini, You spent too, far too, much time in cooking up this “paid” negativest article. You must be one of these “Educated and English Speaking Intellectuals” who rush to the fore front each and every tine they get a chance to mar India.
Where ARE you presently? USA? Canada? Spain? Italy? UK? Or right at the hell to spread so much scare and venom in just plaint letters!
You possess very excessive knowledge in making scary graphs with THE WRONGEST DATA!
With which knowledge did you forecast that India will run into a mess by May?
Even if you don’t raise a finger in support to the people in times of distress and uncertainty, why don’t you use your bits and pieces of wrong knowledge , at the least to make some face masks for the needy? You earned a name by writing. You made some wealth by writing. NOW make some more use for that money by STOPPING these filth.
Utter Rubbish this article has..
That foreign author just wrote what comes in his head with little knowledge…Steps taken by India to curb the virus and people’s support is closely observed by other countries for following same lines of safety and protective measures..India will emerge out of this crisis very soon.
Can we know from the author how many people die naturally in this country. The fatality rate seems to less than 2 or even 1 percent.
I fully agree with you. See the performance of so called Western DEVELOPED Countries perfotmance, then critisise India. Look at the huge USA with population of less than UP. The author should worry more about his own country.
I feel india is putting SINCERE efforts to curb the virus..Europe n italy especially were quite complacent till few days back…Even usa talking of getting business back to track n not acceting the calamity till very recently…I have good hope as india has taken many steps ahead of other developed nations is having countless sacrificing people who r working day n night..we may be poor nation..but our people are our biggest assets… any way there is no drug or vaccine..so govt steps are right n just.
For those guys who remember kargil war..initial days n month was hopeless..but we emerged later…GOD bless everyone..
Best coment
All rubbish……first of all don’t blame India govt and don’t panic our people over false information you were published…
In my point of view this pandemic situation will be recovered very soon. We should strictly followed the guidelines of central and state government. Keep hope and confidence on God.
Why should all go to hospital if the effect of virus can be checked by increasing the immunity. Death of 15 out of 634 on 26th March means 2.5 percent, others are recovering with clinical treatment if immunity is good.
Solution is to to have vitamin B complex and Vitamin C and have lot of exercise to increase immunity . Wear a mask when you go out. Drink lot of water. With these you will not require hospital treatment and clinical treatment with home isolation will do.
Dear Jayant, brother, you are right. Thanks for your advices. We just have to strictly follow doctors’ guidelines and the ones you suggested. We better not panic, do not give up, use common sense and have strong faith on the Almighty.
We just have to strictly follow doctors’ advices & guidelines. We better not panic, do not give up, use common sense and have strong faith on the Almighty.
Vitamins especially C and B Complex, exercises, wearing mask, isolation, drinking warm and if possible hot water and following doctors’ advice and guidance and having strong belief on the Almighty will do wonders.
From March 1 to 13, I went thru hell but could not get tested as had no travel history
— Sore throat
— Fever 100-102
— Incessant dry cough
— Had to rush to hospital with heart rate of 120. ECG turned out fine as per doctors.
— Terrible body ache
— Runny nose
— No hunger … lost 2 kg wt in 13 days
Blood tests on 14th had screwed up CBC, LIPIDS crashed, inflammation marker thru the roof.
Despite all this recovery started from 14th March and all fine now.
So, looks like immune system took care of fighting back.
Onlt thing I did not do is pelt stones and spit on doctors. That only the peacefuls of Tablighi Jamat do. Now they are doing striptease in Ghaziabad quanrantine center and making lewd remarks/gestures on nurses. Mentally SICK people and not journalists have the balls to publish their misdeeds.
The hate of this journalist for Modi is so evident. Print sucks.
This is totally baseless data and it seems the writer is foreigner not Indian. In the time crisis one must console other instead of exposing a threatening data. The virus has been produced may be naturally it would go vanished naturally. Just we must follow govt instructions strictly.The new cases will rise for 7 days and then it would be closed forever.The remaining would be safe and our economy will be stronger rapidly. Just depend on nature
From my point of view……I think this lockdown will be extend in future for 1 month……because day by day the patients of corona are increasing…..means the spreading of COVID-19 is very fastly…..all over the India……
The assumption of continued exponential growth even after the measures taken by central and state governments is not realistic
First of all thank you very much for providing such information. Now as per my opinion if lockdown will be followed by Indian seriously the damage will be few because We were preparing our systems as per experience We got from the other countries where it created worst. God is with us
Every big problem with many data inputs can be put up in a right way to find out, control and remove problem out of system. While making the P Diagram it is important to take 1) right input datas, 2) right boundaries 3) right controls 4) right nearby assumtions 5) positive attitude for sustainable solution. A wrong assumption without right controls consideration will take the problem outcome in wrong direction. We need to keep measure of shorter time to resolve problem and come out with best solution. The world trade center Design for six Sigma never considered a failure with top air attack with fuel burning and melting and we know the result which was never expected.
Hey Rukmini,
Thanks for sharing a possible scenario. While many people are bashing this likely scenario and not ready to accept, I see this becoming a possibility if don’t act on time.
Can you help me understand the assumptions made to paint this scenario and run the data models? Was the current move of 21days lockdown taken into the model? If it is not taken, would this course of action change the future scenario?
I’m happy to have a thoughtful discussion. I’m working with groups to pass on genuine information and make them understand the reality of Covid-19 and it’s impact.
Thanks
Arjun
Exactly. They are just creating fear psychosis. India is not Europe or US. Geography is different, people are different, habits are different, immunity is different
The number of cases for next 1 week would be crucial and then again a week after that and will give a exact clarity on where this is headed.
Let’s assume cases reach 1000 with the current rate by 29th March. Given the scenario in the world, these are doubling every 5 days, if these grow to 2k by 3rd April and 4k by 8th April, we would be more screwed than what is being predicted above. But if the numbers are lower than these, the lockdown is showing its magic and India would be doing amazing to contain and eradicate covid-19
Let’s hope for the best
This fear is only true when the government does not take any action whatsoever….but with present suitable actions by govts it will subside…
Ha ha ha ha ??
Never read such a long joke.
This article does not consider the slowing down of deaths in italy or china . very amaturist
I have heard that you had toned down Augusta Westland agenda after taking money.
Heavenly Father,
I call upon you to please bless our Nation. Bless all our people. Keep them safe from all evil. Thank you Heavenly Father that you love all Mankind and because of your Great Love for us…you will bring all of us out Victoriously. Our hearts and eyes are upon you now at this critical hour and we know that you will hear my Prayer to help all our People and give strength to our Government who is helping all of us at this hour. Keep all of them safe Heavenly Father in your Loving Hands. Thank you Heavenly Father that you have heard my Prayer
It is a true Statement because only making progress in buying warship and making technology is not important then making ventilation. India is only developed in phase to remove articles no govt has shown improvement in making hospitals to save its people from health related problems. It shows a path to every govt that in which field they should show development… Thanks
this article is just made for scary the people. I was not convinced with any point he mentioned in the stastics table. its completely rubbish. may be print media thought that they can print anything on the website so they made this news…
Ms Rukmini, when you have ugly face and ugly heart atleast you should keep ur own personal agenda against the national interest limited to urself. Nobody listens to you kind of buggers.
I agree.
Print is bias to Modi and hence always talks against nation.
Such a baseless article. This guy hasn’t factor in the measures taken by government. Why we will follow the curve path of Italy or US if there is lockdown already in place. Till date counts has increased beacuse people were moving around freely. Not the correct analysis of the situation.
No doubt the government should tackle the current situation more strictly, even in lock down lot of persons are loitering in the roads without any reason.
More serious attitude of government will certainly help to recover from this situation.
Let us hope for a better tomorrow.
Continue repentance for the forgiveness of the sins from the Allah.. It’s the best treatment of corona virus.
Listen!! Whoever u r… India is in much better condition ur developed countries like USA. We are fighters. India will not cross 1500 +ve corona cases. Lock my words.
Ur words come true sir…….
But bro we are still not doing mass testing…. In fact till 23 of march our total testing was approx 17000 ( and that no of testing South Korea doing in single day) so bro we cant comment anything about number of cases..
You are right –
In total, a little above 16,000 tests have been conducted, compared with South Korea, where well over 300,000 people out of its 52 million populationhave been tested.
Who are you people, definitely not journalists, seems completely ill motivated. Have you been paid to right this rubbish. Where from do you do this research, do you have any idea what is the capability of govt machinary or like goonks just blurting out open source and demeaning own nation. Your abysmal graphs aim to show India in poor light. In trying times like these, the only job of media is to motivate people, help the govt efforts, create awareness NOT instigate or incite the general public. This article must be removed and these educated illiterates must close there gob and sit at home.
Print is anti national by core. They feel these things will happen as these people are pessimistic. Let them save Europe. We will manage to our corona endemic.
Please don’t panic the people.jk
SG Ji, what sort of nonsense this is? More than a Journalist you are now heading a Publication house. Please ensure some quality,
Kindly concentrate on a balanced review of matters. You are not writing the script of a thriller movie. This kind of write up creates unrest and a sense of doom. Kindly learn the art of conveying matters in a more responsible way rather than creating such horrifying piece of literature just for gathering greater public views.
First of all, you should know some basic maths before opening your bloody mouth. With a doubling time of 6 days or so and around 500 cases to date, the authors are absolutely correct in whatever information they have published here.
Are you Pakistan terrorist
Did your seniors not read this report before posting ?
Absurd !
Why are the efforts for fighting the Cvirus not mentioned ?
I feel, the report is irresponsibily written.
This sheer stupidity, u have a software engineer who calculated these statistics for u! No need to spread panic. We are in a much better position than Italy! This deciding week will definitely shut negative mouth! Just indoor don’t spread corono or your negativity!
The gov of India knows what it is doing.
Are you guys aware the basis definition of data ? Well, I am a data scientist. Let me illustrate, data means collection of facts. What you are (falsely and painfully) doing here is projection. You are creating panic among people for rhe sake of few clicks or visits. If you are not able to support each other, STFU and watch Netflix. Don’t spread panic. After reading all negative comments, any sensible journalist/journalism body would take down pages like this. Shame on you, morons!!!!
You are right, Sudheer – “After reading all negative comments, any sensible journalist/journalism body would take down pages like this. ” Sadly, in the print-media, columnists/ editors treat negative comments as a measure of success. Plus, it’s not interactive – they manufacture an article and no dialogue happens. No explanation, no justification. That is why such pieces are quite damaging.
Rukmini S and Soham Sen – You both will definitely pay for this soon. And People are not dumb Morons like you. So just stop these nonsense and first go buy a mask for urself and sit at home safe, I mean sit at home without writing rubbish……!! ?
How are these people are tolerated even in their homes. So negative and full of hatred. Look at the way this beach has ended her article “time to act was yesterday” seriously??? What a w ho re
She spoke truth ! Y cant u see ,y r u so blinded with mooodi! Sigh!!
Such an idiotic journalism. So pessimistic.
If you cannot write an article to boost the morale
Of people , atleast don’t create panic . All the Covid related articles be allowed to go public only after government permission. What kind of maths or statistics was it . Based on your theory can you imagine mortality rate in USA ?
All good but you missed recovery stats ..so even assuming people don’t listen to govt and all the death won’t be so much.
And now considering that govt. Is still taking all measurements and also considering the fact that if not all a lot of population is going to follow the instructions.. i think thing’s won’t be so severe still yes thing’s will be bad. Government need to increase testing now and people need to stay the fuck inside their DAMN house PERIOD(except for emergencies)… Otherwise thing’s won’t be far off from what writer is describing.
All good but you missed recovery stats ..so assuming people don’t listen to govt and all the death won’t be so much.
And now considering that govt. Is still taking all measurements and also considering the fact that if not all a lot of population is going to follow the instructions.. i think thing’s won’t be so severe still yes thing’s will be bad.
His analysis is just manifestation of rotten mind set.I predict that he may be below average student in the college days and not understood meaning of journalism.
God -the superior power who shaped the UNIVERSE will see us through this CORONA virus.It is transforming us and we are coming closer to each other in solidarity.
INDIA is my country and all Indians are my brothers and sisters.We stand together with our Prime Minister .His wisdom cannot be underestimated at this moment
We will not panic or fear for OUR GOD will lift us up from this virus.That is our Indian faith and spirituality as all believe in ONE GOD although different forms .Jai hind.
True very true a superior power above named as God knows what to do and when to end …
Let us all try to stay safe and abide the rules ..
Rest destined will happen
Tum se kabhi positive baat nahi ho sakti hai kya?
Wow.. This is a result of pure hatred toward the man. Spewing such kinda BS during these testing times will only add to the already resolute support of the PM.
Honestly though, isn’t this too much. Your stats are complete garbage. Honey if you can’t do math then dont put that stuff on the internet. I’ll tell you; do us all a solid by going back to school and studying. Besides, what’s the point of rambling on about something and adding a bunch of graphs? Will do any good? How bout you use this opportunity to learn, take down this trash and write something that will help to solve the problem. Just a thought!
Honestly though, isn’t this too much. Your stats are complete garbage. Honey if you can’t do math then dont put that stuff on the internet. I’ll tell you; do us all a solid by going back to school and studying. Who even allowed this in the internet, I’m perplexed.