After the largest single-day increase in the number of novel coronavirus cases in India, it has never been clearer that the pandemic is upon us and the next few weeks are going to throw up a scenario that many still find hard to imagine. From the data we have, here’s a look at the near future, and what the Narendra Modi government needs to do.
India is hitting a period of exponential growth
It took India forty days to reach the first 50 cases, five more days to reach 100 cases, three more days to reach 150 cases and then just two more days to reach 200 cases. From here on, the juggernaut is going to roll fast.
The number of confirmed cases in India is now doubling in five days or less, down from six days earlier this month. This puts India in line with trajectories of countries across the world — in the United States, cases are now doubling every two days.
Italy discovered its first case 10 days after South Korea. For another 20 days it had less than 10 cases, even as South Korea’s case count began to rise steadily. But then in a span of one frightening week, Italy’s case count multiplied a hundredfold. Within the next week, South Korea began to flatten the curve, while Italy’s case count continues to skyrocket, completely overwhelming its health system. India needs to try to move its own growth curve away from the Italy trajectory, and fast, with strict implementation of the social distancing measures it has already announced, if not even stricter lockdowns.
Moreover, these are only confirmed cases; to ascertain the true number of cases, India will need to ramp up its conservative testing. On Friday, the Modi government took one small step closer to that by expanding testing to those hospitalised with respiratory distress who did not have known contact with a person with foreign travel history.
India is set for an explosion of cases
At this rate of growth, and assuming the 3.4 per cent fatality rate relative to confirmed cases calculated by the World Health Organization, India is headed for nearly a million confirmed cases by the end of May and over 30,000 deaths. These are conservative estimates. A team of bio-statisticians used predictive modelling and estimated that the number could be even higher, reaching nearly a million cases by 15 May instead.
Sudden single-day spikes, or a higher ratio of estimated to confirmed cases — nearly impossible to put a number to in the absence of more widespread testing — could tip these numbers higher, faster. By assuming that there are eight times as many undiscovered as confirmed cases, Indian software entrepreneur Mayank Chhabra estimated over five million cases and over 1.7 lakh deaths by the end of May.
Many people do not yet realise the severity of what lies ahead — these numbers are vital, particularly in the context of India where the majority of workers do not have job protections. A compensation package on the lines of the one announced by Kerala will be essential pan-India for the long haul ahead.
This will mean health systems will be overwhelmed
With a ratio of just 0.5 beds per 1,000 people as of 2017, India’s existing healthcare infrastructure will be swamped in the coming months. At the current rate of growth of confirmed cases, by early June, India will be out of hospital beds. Factoring in usual bed availability and a faster doubling rate, Chhabra estimates India will be out of hospital beds by the end of April.
The number of critical care beds and ventilators in India is not officially known, but is believed to be sharply lacking. With ICU beds estimated at 70,000 nationally, if even one out of every 10 cases was to require an ICU bed by the end of May, India would be running at full capacity, if not earlier.
Richer countries have struggled, with Italian doctors having to make the impossible decision of choosing who gets a ventilator and who does not, and the army being called in to produce medical supplies. The United States is heading there. Unofficial estimates of the number of ventilators in India stand at around 40,000. Yet, apart from assuring that there are “sufficient ventilators”, the Modi government has been thin on detail on the ramping up of critical care that it is, or should be, doing.
Some states in particular will struggle, hard
Indian states vary widely in capacity on all counts, including health. The poorest states are also the ones with the weakest capacity to deliver health outcomes. In June 2019, the Niti Aayog’s ranking of states on health found that “the health outcomes of some states are comparable to that of some upper middle-income countries and high-income countries (for example, Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) in Kerala is similar to that of Brazil or Argentina), while some other states have health outcomes similar to those of the poorest countries in the world (for example, NMR in Odisha is close to that of Sierra Leone).”
Bihar has just one government hospital bed for every 1 lakh people, while Goa has 20. In Italy, in comparison, the rate of infection has now reached 1 in every 1,280 people. Chhattisgarh has 71 per cent vacancies for specialists at district hospitals. Despite an established treatment plan, Uttar Pradesh has a treatment success rate of just 64 per cent for new microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis cases. Just 15 per cent of facilities at Bihar’s First Referral Units were functional.
There is no clear sign yet that the Modi government will be able to help these states make up for their lack of health care infrastructure, or, even, that it can be done at this late stage.
The time to act was yesterday.
The author is a Chennai-based data journalist. Views are personal.
This article has been updated to reflect that the number of ventilators in India, according to several statements, is 40,000.
Singer kanika kapoor return from abroad and not been put in isolation for 14days neglecting that she don’t have any symptoms and what happened Now… after three days she was tested positive … A girl from manipur came from UK a few days ago and at any airport she is fine with no symptoms coz she is not putting on isolated place but let her go home .. .. And what happened got diagnosed after three days . . She is now at the hospital but think about her natives, friends and all who were in contact with her . .. ..Mary Kom is breaking the law. … Please notice it for the nation s future . .. Even great celebrity actors are aware of this.. . Help India to be saved not only by words but by deed. .. Quarantined for 14days at the spot every one who came from abroad at the same day please … I am just a poor boy trying to save myself my family and my nation
I think u r correct Modi govt did a lot of.loop.holes .. when all the people.who have come from.abrode should have been put under 14 days observation and not let to come out … Now we will be in a complete mess in some months ..
My boy, I am 63 , retired from Central Government Service. Staying home , my daughter is also an Central Government Government Employee. Reading those two persons Article and seeing the Graphic I totally feeling nervous about my daughters future. I don’t know how these stupid fellows will keep mum.
Don’t panic sir. The scenario is not as bad as these mor ons are projecting it. There are several factors which should be taken into consideration, not just throwing some random numbers and graphs by some random IT guy. Just stay put at your home, these days will pass soon.
I am surprised by ur pessimistic view ,just not aware of the morality of journalism. Better u try to change ur attitude towards our citizens & our Nation. By motivating the citizens and providing some positive support u can increase their immunity to some extend.Also gathering some useful information which could b shared with them to safeguard .
Immune system has nothing to do with positive news. stop writing useless things. None of what you have written helps anyone but you and keep yourself in false sense of security.
I guess 21 days lock down make this report a rubbish talk.
I would suggest to remove this article.
What an absolute idiotic statement..
You ought to be ashamed of yourself for spreading panic for a meagre piteous cry for attention in a situation that needs strength, resolve and boosting morale. You are not a person worth a single penny for your “opinion.” If you have any morals whatsoever you will take this abhorrent waste of words down immediately.
I see maximum on negative thoughts here on this website. They don’t talk about precautions and measures. They just blame others and create panic!
Create a post to bring awareness, not panic!
The Indian systems of medicine have excellent immune boosters and the government of India has a department to promote these systems. But the decisions seem to have been taken by people controlled by the global pharma lobby. They didn’t even bother to look at these possibilities even when they were searching in the dark. What the government should have done was to at least test these immune boosters on volunteers. The advantage is that they protect people from not one species of virus but many species, including new ones. Sad to see that a government that took the initiative to start an AYUSH department and declare “Make in India” initiative failed to utilise our own ancient knowledge. It could have become a path-breaking finding in fighting such epidemics and pandemics. Instead, we are still following the West, and not leading the world.
Don’t forget that god is still living in our country. He/she save us. Now the medicine has also invented. So don’t worry but be cautious & obey government rule strictly. God bless us.
Where is the recovery graph?
Worst kind of journalism,irresponsible,
Godi media
Bajo thali
What about summer and higher temperatures in India?
There has been reports Corona is not that resistant to higher temperatures and spread may slow down.
Italy allowed large No. of workers from China Wuhan province to work in some leather factories it seems and No of people who smoke and have respiratory problems is also high there.
And there are people(kids) who still believing that high temperature can kill this virus.
This guy knows he is writing nonsense ……I this he is paid by Chinese to create havoke among indians ..because china wants investment to run away from our country
……see PM has given freedom to media for some reason that doesn’t mean you can write all Nonsense
This guy has to be questioned by RAW and IB simultaneously
Hopeless article at this juncture ……..
INDIA WILL OVER COME !!!! JAI HIND
I will sue The print if things doesn’t go as said above. I will take you to court for sure. You guys are morons. You can’t do anything yet spreading hoax.
What about summer and higher temperatures in India(36 C in South India atleast)?
There has been reports Corona is not that resistant to higher temperatures when compared to cool temperatures in Europe.
Italy allowed large No. of workers from China Wuhan province to work in some leather factories it seems and No of people who smoke and have respiratory problems is also high there.
There doesn’t seem to be any evidence at least so far to show that higher temperatures will suppress the virus. This has been repeatedly stated by experts. So, no chance there, as far as we can see.
Please don’t scare anyone in your life time. Also try to stop writing such pessimistic articles in the name of “statistics” never ever again. Try to be optimistic all time. Forget about the leads or statistics. However the situation is worse, please try to have positive thoughts in your mind, things/ situation will improve/change. If you still believe in “negative” statistics, I would strongly suggest you to do statistics for your own first.
I support your point that people now need positive points and reassuring words. Even the best statistics can go wrong. Life cannot be reduced to statistical numbers. That’s just one point of view and not the complete truth. One question: why did your graph took so long to reach an appreciable figure? I only advise that we in India must understand social distancing much more seriously because the disease has come from abroad.
Very correct. Going by the trend and actions taken it will sail through smoothly.
True news.
I will be the happiest person if half of the people from the useless “Print” are affected. Writing at its worst. Stop scarring people. If you can’t help don’t create panic. The government is doing all it can to stop the spread. You guys are seriously more dangerous than the virus. Shame on you guys.
I am sure editor is gonna be one among those 30k.
Shame on you…If you were so confident about your guesstimates, why didnt you give your bullshit analysis to Italy and USA??
Stop publishing your bullshit opinions.
have hit it!! where were these gems when the virus was spreading in china? he didnt have the merit to become a IAS or a doc..the easiest way to be in thick of things without shouldering responsibility is journalism! gupta, was thrown away by the express owner’s son for defalcating funds! also, these stories are part of sabotage mechanism…fear mongering, spook the public and the govt so that the present dispensation is thrown away and the old suspects are back in power. that will help ilk of gupta and his tribe to make merry at the cost of citizens!
Stop printing all these nonsense. You half-educated media and educated illiterates are doing more harm than anything else for India.
Are you stupid? Can’t you see this is the ground reality of this pandemic.
Ask yourself the same question before asking others. Could you or this so call journo give any guesstimate for other heavily affected countries. It could have helped stop fatalities. Here, with a few parameters in hand for a complex country like India these people are doing Excel sheet calculations in the name of research? Save yourself and others if you can and don’t try to scare away people if you cant help.
No, I am not…Ask yourself the same question
Scary situation… Time to think wise, follow the guidelines very strictly & stay at home. Rest in God’s hands…?
Correctly analysed. Stick to guidelines without fail. Rest will be fine. Containment will be progressive after 21 days.
If we consider only the rate in growth of the cases it may appear like million people to be infected by May but if we consider the one fact inspite of no serious steps being taken till 22 nd March, the no of cases with local contamination is not that exponential compared to other countries. I agree there is a danger but with the serious measures in place and all the imported contamination is restricted( barring the international passengers) the situation is not that panic. In my opinion in India the infected cases will be less than two to three lakh by May end.
Scaring people with half baked math is not what India needs right now. Awareness and precautions are a must but this is NOT the time to take sides and criticise the government. We together as Indians have to fight this virus. Each and every citizen needs to be responsible and that includes the journalist who has written this. False and alarming statistics is of help to nobody at this stage and I request all the media out there to project positivity and not fear. That is the last thing we need now.
Be safe. Be aware. DO NOT PANIC.
Italy acted way too late.
The strict lockdown India is undergoing will definitely make a difference, it will slow the spreading as everybody is confined to their houses.
We will hope and pray for the best and with the help of our government, medical services and support of people we will succeed.
Do your research. Look up this site, it will explain all statistics and you can see why percentages being reported are different.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
It is not scaremongering, it is spreading so fast that there’s too much data for all news to report the same. Symptoms don’t show for 2 to 14 days so people don’t know they are spreading it. Start making more medical supplies now, more masks and PPE for hospitals.
Here in the USA we are just starting to test more people and we just had more than 10,000 new cases detected just yesterday. the number will grow rapidly.
Avoid people especially the stupid ones that don’t care, theyre the ones spreading it most. keep your hands clean and don’t touch your face especially in public. It effects people with pre-existing respiratory problems, diabetes, older people (60+ yrs) and heart problems worse than others. Some youger or healthy people positive with Covid-19 SHOW NO SYMPTOMS. This is why it is spreading so fast.
Good Luck India!!! Please contain it and save lives.
-Woman in San Francisco Bay, California
China should have tell the truth earlier, WHO has become puppet in chines hands,
WHO also misleaded the world ,responsible for thousands deaths,
Love to Donald Trump,
Student, from India
Exactly, Mr.Kristin, I pressed the same link for this writer. She just taped on her PC away at will and vengeance thinking that she is shoveling filth on Modu JI. If she has any data at the site you indicated she would have done a very different article. These “Half Citizens” love to mar India on the slightest chance. Instead, even being a women of India and Tamilnadu, she is spreading venom in loyalty to her political bosses and the wafts of currency they tossed at her. Please look into some of her earlier articles. Most of them were “Invertebrate Organisms”.Thank You very much.
India getting in indians stuck overseas so its onvious you may see sharp rise when they land. Dont hide fact. You cant see the future nor your a medical expert so please dont print such thing
Data maybe skewed and the article may not be palatable to majority, but the truth remains whether one like it or not.
India is definitely in danger….. Whether we overcome it / be a prey depends on each and every citizen. It’s not the time to fight over frivolities but time to be prudent & wise.
Crying will not save but right action definitely will save
prediction business is wrought with inaccuracies and personal bias. What have you achieved by making such startling data based on assumptions other than spread panic. The government and concerned agencies are capable of, and making efforts to do their best. Stop scaring people. In is anti-national ( that is the current flavour so I am using it. I mean something similar). Stay at Home and take a break.
Everybody just dont panic. Dont do anything stupid.
Your statistical analysis is impeccable, your subtle criticism of the Modi Govt. extraordinary. Please offer your valuable suggestions on what to do now and how to arrest the spike in the number of cases. What should the government do, given the tendency of our people to disregard the law (lockdown in this case). By the way, does the fault lie with the current central government and state governments that our health care facility is inadequate? What about the governments of USA, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Iran etc etc etc? Why is the virus overwhelming the healthcare facilities and governments all over the world (except North Korea, may be-Mr Kim is busy in testing nuclear capable missiles even now).
The fact of the matter is that mankind has been too busy in digging it’s own grave, making bombs and missiles when there other so many pressing needs. Why blame the Modi government or any particular government?
Finally, I would love to read your criticism of the Chinese government for suppressing facts in the initial stages and letting this become a pandemic. Their own citizens who dare to do so, either die or become untraceable. You write please. The Modi government or the Johnson government (depends on where you are) will not allow any harm to come your way.
Thanks for being part of the fear-mongering network. Just extrapolating data using some half baked math doesn’t make a good story, responsible journalism is the need of the hour.
Don’t create panic. The world is already in place of worst position. India is a young County how you can calculate 30000 deaths by May 20, whereas the government has already taken precautions to lockdown etc
India has 40000 ventilators not 4000 and ordered hospitals in India ordered for 8900 ventilators in 2019 alone and 1200 more ordered so far in 2020 so if you don’t have the facts atleast don’t spew such rubbish articles and generate mass hysteria amongst the people.
Data from China shows around 15 % Covid-19 patients get sick enough to need hospitalisation and 5% require ventilator support in ICU. Your scenario assumes that 1 in every 10 patients will need to be on ventilator support what is the basis for such wild assumptions?
Such online media know-alls should be sued for misleading statements and creating panic among the population which will drive hoarding, unnecessary movement among ppl and over-crowding everywhere resulting in faster spread of the disease.
Please write what to do and what not to contain the disease. You just cannot apply maths and come up with no’s which might be totally wrong . It’s like closing eyes and shooting and if you hit bulls eye you are Arjun. Show facts and measures to be taken . Please remove your article
While we understand ,the article is based on the Data science and projection, the tone is very pessimistic and creating Fear. Why cant the solution, ideas to flatten curve also be published the way the fear message and article published. And ventilator data has been put up wrong , this creates the image , how many other data source have been casually taken.
The problem with this journalism is that intention is to create panic. Data which they have used may not be wrong as on the date it has been written. Graphs etc will make it more impressive. The government is wise enough and there is a sense of accountability in the system unlike in the past, the lockdown has been announced and being enforced so this rate will not be applicable to India. Two unknown factors in the horizon, one is an environmental factor and second is treatment regimen will also be important. Right now solid studies on both fronts are lacking. I am very sure that if lockdown till 15 April is successful, we will be able to stop the community transmission. The present dispensation at Delhi is capable to do it.
Do you even know how to do forecasting? Which modelling you used to forecast this analysis? And yes please do not say this not responsibility to Print, opinions and views expressed are of individuals……
You guys should be ashamed of yourselves. Trying to get clicks by spreading panic instead of being useful, low morals.
Clickbait, you guys should be ashamed of yourselves. Trying to get clicks by spreading panic instead of being useful, low morals.
Data journalist? What the hell is that? Who certified her? Give me access to Excel I can show you better graphs. You are drain inspectors and nothing more. If we fall short of 30000, one knows where to make up the numbers from…start with The Print.
I am a Doctor from one of the largest government hospital in India.We know the ground reality of Indian health care system.Health care systems should reflect the main motto of cleanliness where as in India,Government hospitals are where you get lots of hospital acquired Infections(nosocomial i fections).
In a country where people are more interested to spend on statues and temples than on Health and Education are going to get a hard lesson now.
Poor health care system(due to low spendings on health) and poor education(resulting in believing of fake news,unable to understand the situation,many superstitions to combat)
PS:in normal days we struggle to find enough Betadine,surgical spirit,gloves and masks..rest is left to be understood
You ask what makes India makes special…… I do consider you alarmness about this situation but unlike italy we do not treat the lockdown periods as holidays. People just thought this as a excuse for partying. Whereas in indian all pubs, restaurants and bars were banned first handedly and 30 of the provinces have been lockdown 100+ districts are following curfew because unlike italy we understood the alarmness of the situation before it’s expontial rise.
my dear friend, i can correct u on the statement of unlike italy we dont treat lockdown as a holiday. havent u seen the news ? so many are still seen on the roads ,wandering on bikes, also have a look at the markets. what will u call this? are they not holidaying?
Irresponsible writing.
जिस अर्थशास्त्री ने पहला वाला graph बनाया है, उसके अर्थशास्त्र के गुरु को नम आंखों से श्रृद्धांजलि ।
I am heartbroken and disappointed to see educated Indians commenting like this. Countries like South Korea have handled SELF ISOLATION very well. US and European nations have lower population density so it’s easier for Social Distancing. Coming to India. People are actually celebrating this disease by dancing in the streets. And you are asking not to get scared? Are you kidding me? I am stuck in the US. I have not gone out of my house for 2 weeks straight. People are scared and everyone is doing everything they can to stay inside and let the government do its job. You have no idea how easy it is for the virus to spread in India. In this scenario, it’s beneficial for the country to be scared. There’s no bravado in questioning worst case simulations like this. You want to pay respect to doctors and all? GET SCARED AND STAY INSIDE YOUR HOUSE. Make their job of SAVING YOU easier.
Indeed an alarmimg content.. But please also highlight the worst affected age groups which are 60years and above. It is also seen that fatality cases are the ones who already had lungs issues and breathing problems. Nevertheless social distancing is the mantra to flatten the curve.
So in China after 4 months total number of cases stands at 81k +, from last one week there is no local transmission, probably after 1-2 months there wont be any corona cases in chine..
then how it will infect 9 lack Indians in next 2 months? .. so by this logic how many will get infected in italy and china?
just do not create panic.
Having an epidemiology background I know the only solution in a country with a high density of population is social distancing. The budget for medical needs is way far too low for a country with dire medical needs, we don’t have enough testing kits or masks. The budget for health outlay needs to be upgraded.
Why this line while talking about hospital infrastructure in Indian states? :
In Italy, in comparison, the rate of infection has now reached 1 in every 1,280 people
What is India’s problem ? ( Hint it is not corona)
India’s problem is Congress, leftist, Kerala, Naxalites, Trinamool Congress, The Print and The Wire.
Eliminate these from India and we Indians will never have any problems ever.
You can start by eliminating Congress from Indian Soil and notice 50 percent of difference.
Andha bhakt
Good true