After the largest single-day increase in the number of novel coronavirus cases in India, it has never been clearer that the pandemic is upon us and the next few weeks are going to throw up a scenario that many still find hard to imagine. From the data we have, here’s a look at the near future, and what the Narendra Modi government needs to do.
India is hitting a period of exponential growth
It took India forty days to reach the first 50 cases, five more days to reach 100 cases, three more days to reach 150 cases and then just two more days to reach 200 cases. From here on, the juggernaut is going to roll fast.
The number of confirmed cases in India is now doubling in five days or less, down from six days earlier this month. This puts India in line with trajectories of countries across the world — in the United States, cases are now doubling every two days.
Italy discovered its first case 10 days after South Korea. For another 20 days it had less than 10 cases, even as South Korea’s case count began to rise steadily. But then in a span of one frightening week, Italy’s case count multiplied a hundredfold. Within the next week, South Korea began to flatten the curve, while Italy’s case count continues to skyrocket, completely overwhelming its health system. India needs to try to move its own growth curve away from the Italy trajectory, and fast, with strict implementation of the social distancing measures it has already announced, if not even stricter lockdowns.
Moreover, these are only confirmed cases; to ascertain the true number of cases, India will need to ramp up its conservative testing. On Friday, the Modi government took one small step closer to that by expanding testing to those hospitalised with respiratory distress who did not have known contact with a person with foreign travel history.
India is set for an explosion of cases
At this rate of growth, and assuming the 3.4 per cent fatality rate relative to confirmed cases calculated by the World Health Organization, India is headed for nearly a million confirmed cases by the end of May and over 30,000 deaths. These are conservative estimates. A team of bio-statisticians used predictive modelling and estimated that the number could be even higher, reaching nearly a million cases by 15 May instead.
Sudden single-day spikes, or a higher ratio of estimated to confirmed cases — nearly impossible to put a number to in the absence of more widespread testing — could tip these numbers higher, faster. By assuming that there are eight times as many undiscovered as confirmed cases, Indian software entrepreneur Mayank Chhabra estimated over five million cases and over 1.7 lakh deaths by the end of May.
Many people do not yet realise the severity of what lies ahead — these numbers are vital, particularly in the context of India where the majority of workers do not have job protections. A compensation package on the lines of the one announced by Kerala will be essential pan-India for the long haul ahead.
This will mean health systems will be overwhelmed
With a ratio of just 0.5 beds per 1,000 people as of 2017, India’s existing healthcare infrastructure will be swamped in the coming months. At the current rate of growth of confirmed cases, by early June, India will be out of hospital beds. Factoring in usual bed availability and a faster doubling rate, Chhabra estimates India will be out of hospital beds by the end of April.
The number of critical care beds and ventilators in India is not officially known, but is believed to be sharply lacking. With ICU beds estimated at 70,000 nationally, if even one out of every 10 cases was to require an ICU bed by the end of May, India would be running at full capacity, if not earlier.
Richer countries have struggled, with Italian doctors having to make the impossible decision of choosing who gets a ventilator and who does not, and the army being called in to produce medical supplies. The United States is heading there. Unofficial estimates of the number of ventilators in India stand at around 40,000. Yet, apart from assuring that there are “sufficient ventilators”, the Modi government has been thin on detail on the ramping up of critical care that it is, or should be, doing.
Some states in particular will struggle, hard
Indian states vary widely in capacity on all counts, including health. The poorest states are also the ones with the weakest capacity to deliver health outcomes. In June 2019, the Niti Aayog’s ranking of states on health found that “the health outcomes of some states are comparable to that of some upper middle-income countries and high-income countries (for example, Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) in Kerala is similar to that of Brazil or Argentina), while some other states have health outcomes similar to those of the poorest countries in the world (for example, NMR in Odisha is close to that of Sierra Leone).”
Bihar has just one government hospital bed for every 1 lakh people, while Goa has 20. In Italy, in comparison, the rate of infection has now reached 1 in every 1,280 people. Chhattisgarh has 71 per cent vacancies for specialists at district hospitals. Despite an established treatment plan, Uttar Pradesh has a treatment success rate of just 64 per cent for new microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis cases. Just 15 per cent of facilities at Bihar’s First Referral Units were functional.
There is no clear sign yet that the Modi government will be able to help these states make up for their lack of health care infrastructure, or, even, that it can be done at this late stage.
The time to act was yesterday.
The author is a Chennai-based data journalist. Views are personal.
This article has been updated to reflect that the number of ventilators in India, according to several statements, is 40,000.
See your countries stats where you licks elites boots , don’t care about us we are self capable with us is the nature
Dont scare with such unbelievable articals
Right. Unfortunately India is very bad at health services. Doctors and paramedics are good but overburdened. Everyone has a fear of Corona . We the doctors are also frightened. We know that the situation might get worsen day by day. There would be exponential increase in the number of patients with even more fear and fatigue. What if doctors start getting the infection. When the patient is serious we always forget our safety. Yes , we have some more number of ventilators in private hospitals .But any machine in government set cannot be trusted to over work .I wish there was no corruption in India .Inspite of having good human resources , we lack facilities. Hundreds of ventilators might be lying untouched and unused at unknown places. Many might be nonfunctional due to poor quality machine . The hospital administration is interested in purchase ONLY. I am sure Corona fear will work better than God fear. Indians have potential to do wonders . Together we will fight and win.
Her personal views so friends don’t take her seriously.
Do take seriously precautions against this lethal disease. Don’t go out unnecessarily. Let them harp on…..
This article is revealing future possible danger going to be faced by India.
Actually, the print worked out most scientifically and logically to bring this news.
But, we are unable to digest the truth.
Dear sir,people of india have taken a solemn oath that they won’t budge…i dunno know but i guess common people here are more intelligent than all the so called intellectuals..but u see the problem is corona virus doesn’t discriminate…Godi media started celebrating even before it started..they became conclusive when the world was still speculative…they have now started to realize “coronasur” is much more than a fictional villain…it is a reality…an ongoing reality..very hard and very painful…kudos to healthcare dept for singlehandedly dealing with crisis…it is good if they say country is getting applauded for its measures…but what now.cases have started showing a spurt….the budget that should have been allocated earlier has been given now….healthcare support system remains dismally low..health officials are doing their job in a very unsupportive env especially if financial backing is concerned..immediate cuts and steps should have been taken to atleast make sure equipment is enough..it is the states that are taking and drafting measures..god knows what will happen if it gets out of their control and becomes more of the center’s responsibility…but their supporters are busy in pr machinery…i haven’t seen anywhere some pm or president getting applauded for suggesting precautions..it is their duty..i mean trump,bolsnaro were shown mirror when needed… we must respect but not follow blindly…but celebrating like everything is resolved when it has just started..even the most of the public figures remain dumb…but don’t be scared because KASAM SE….hum nhn manenge..tab tak jb tk aag hmare ghr mei nhn lgegi…it is time to fear,panic and not say sb acha hai
Seems like a lot of comments by people who don’t understand math. A good way of looking at it as follows. Let’s assume the average time taken for the disease to run its course (till death) ~ 20 days. Let’s further assume a Case Fatality Rate of 1% That means per death on Day T, there would have been 100 people exposed on Day T-20. With a doubling time of 5 days. Those 100 people (without any social distancing etc) will go on to infect other people such that on Day T-15 there will be 200 people, T-10 400, Day T-5 800 and Day T 1600. Of doubling times continue at every 5 days, then day T +20 looks like 25600. Deaths on day T + 40 = 1% of 25600 = 256. People can run these numbers by changing the assumptions, CFR and doubling time to _game_ the scenario, but the bottom line revolves around preventing the spread of the disease to give everyone enough time to figure out Rx protocols and manage case loads. If hospitals are overwhelmed, CFR rises. In Italy it is close to 10% In S Korea it is below 1%
I am a doctor working in the NHS UK. I work in critical care and over the last two days the ICU has been filled with Corona virus patients who are now on the ventilators . We are expecting the hospital to be flooded with Corona virus patients in a week . By April we will likely have to choose who will get treatment and who will be left to die. The experts here expect that 5lakh people will die due to the Corona virus . UK government was late in instituting a lock down . India was earlier , but the Corona virus is nearly impossible to contain . Thousands of people will die in India and probably more. Please isolate yourself to save millions of lives. The last great pandemic of 1919 killed 1 core Indians. Let us not make that mistake again. Stay in , regular handwash and social distancing is a must .
What are the upper and lower bound of your prediction curve? With what confidence you guys say 1 million by may?
This is not just poorly written, but, I believe, a freehand drawing. Just because you know excel, it doesn’t make you good at data, let alone disease modeling.
Projecting into August, your model projects that all Italians will be dead and the US will loose half of its population. That’s the absurdity of your model. You claim that by the end of May, over 5 million will be infected and 1.7 lakh will be dead, gives a death ratio of 3.3%. The world average is less than 1%. For India, which has a younger population, this ratio is expected to be even less. Indian statisticians at home and abroad are going crazy with their modelling, projecting their biases of an India that is ignorant, poor and backward. I expect more honesty in their work.
Media like you are waiting for some news to come who are ready to exaggerate any situation, we know the situations could be worst if this pandemic spreads but you should not write an articles like this rather if you have good suggestions for the govt to act upon , you should recommend that. But you are on a verge to criticise the govt, now also. We all very well know that we have a shortage of health services but we all have one thing common , that we all have some hopes either with our gods or from the good deeds we do. This article can create havoc amongst common people and i am reporting this and it should be removed.
For that you need a government to listen as well. Not talk in monologue.
Amit you are really a pshycopath.
And you are a hopeless hater of humanity
I dont think , the writer is trying to exaggerate the situation. People must understand the gravity of this situation. Ignorance was probably the sole reason that Italy surpassed China’s death toll. Government must act quick enough unless its thinking that people shall enjoy virus’ company more than human’s .
Virus won’t see your good deed man…while infecting…if the cases increase with such exponential rate..then no prayer will save you man , except the hospitals and the health workers,which is quiet insufficient here. n Why are u showing so much sympathy to govt. ???We have every right to question government at any situation… If our health system would have that efficient ,there wouldn’t have any article like such… instead of making mandirs and statues, govt. would have better invested money on hospitals and research laboratories.. bcz when u r dying u don’t go to temples , u come to hospital… But people like u will never understand this.and it’s very pathetic
Yes absolutely right
Hopeless article! Such articles should not be published!
THE PRINT
It is not worth commenting but the fact you people are the same ones who get 1000-1500GBP on each anti India article, but here you are just showing that you don’t care about journalism and your duty also your mathematics is shittier than your brain, just want to fulfil your greed and create fear- don’t worry COVID-19 will be at your doorstep next because I think when the nature is getting rid of pollution it should get rid of such people like the Print.
URGENT : PLEASE MAKE CORRECTION
You’ve mentioned the total number of estimated ventilators in India are 4000, but I think it is 40000
Sources :
https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/as-coronavirus-cases-surge-in-india-40-000-ventilators-for-1-3bn-people-a-worry/story-2My7VOoMuqHpGmvosK3tvN.html
Exactly. I was wondering the same thing. Its 40,000 and not 4,000. And i read that govt is taking appropriate steps to ramp it up. Must be deliberate. What can you expect from these morally bankrupt commie jihadis. He wants 1.7 lakh deaths. Shame on the journalist for spreading such panic in times like these. Rise above your greed and hatred. Such a highly biased article.
Creating a sense of fear is the need of the hour and that is the sole intent of this article. And those “intelligent” folks who comment saying there is nothing to be afraid of and questioning the stats , I’m sorry to say that you may at some point become responsible for the death of a random person or who knows maybe even your close ones or even you. Someone reading “your” comment may feel it’s ok to step out for something that was never important and well you know what happens next…be responsible with your comments, people should be scared , there plenty of idiots out there and they need to be scared if you want you ans your loved ones to stay alive
Well said
yes u are right
Agreed wid u
Rewind your trajectory and put your theory in China based on their mid Jan data and show us what should be the result today for them …don’t create panic ……
It is a problem if everyone other person claim to be epidemiologist, every other person claiming to be doctor and scientist and scare the sh1t out of everyone. A responsible journalist is the one who reports the news, not scary a fiction.
Just give it some time. This ‘fiction’ will soon become news.
great!! have you made your reservations then?? or the Author has assured you protection by excluding you from the 30000/1.7 lakh cases, which ever side she wants to tilt towards
If we are not careful enough……
These are alarming statistics, and alarmed you should be. It’s not smart to only expect a good outcome ahead and these statistics could be the worst case scenario.
This is not a failure of modi government , it is failure of all government from freedom time to this time . And the main reason behind this is people who not ask any questions from bjp or Congress or any other government . All government think peoples are foolish and they right in this case. And ultimately the print news you are also a one way news publisher , if you want to aware the people then you should need to publish that news which shows all governments failure and also all religions fundamentalist not one way new.
Do not make such false statement without any relevant data, just a trajectory can not predict near future. Try to avoid such panic in the people of the country where many are illiterate and take any news seriously. Try and send such study to GOI rather than keeping on the readings for people of the country.
The people of the country should understand the severity of the problem in order to strictly follow all measures to contain the virus as far as possible.
Kerala has the 3 case in Jan 1st week and now at 45, how can u relate this fact. If we prepare and act smart as Kerala is doing now this will be contained with in 2 months. Pls write an article by May.
It is believed, the evil are likely to turn kind hearted when confronted with death. These kind of articles are meant to scare us Indians into becoming nice people. I am not going to change one bit.
I don’t know what is going to happen by the end of May but I am sure that something very bad is going to happen because most of the Indians are not taking this pandemic seriously especially the less educated people . It’s true that the medical facility in India is not so good as compared to the develope countries , consequently large number of people will lose their lives in the coming weeks . So , please be serious and follow the instructions as prescribed by government of India . Stay in your homes and don’t come out unnecessarily just to see that what is happening on the streets . Keep yourself and others safe . It’s a request .
Disease and human reaction to it is naturally a personal affair,To some extent justified institutional support may be required for community level epidemics since community living is a state affair,but every couple of year new viral panic and deaths are overinflated in media(swine flu,chickengunea,avian flu etc) has been show post 2000 not before that,when there are no medicines for viral infections why you are spreading fear amidst chaos ,Key sera Key sera what will be will be ,feature is not our to see —Lets be prepared ,suggest positive tips like eating healthy, taking help of indigenous medicines ,plants ,yoga and Strong belief in creator ,sprituality,love, compassion to develop innate immunity and ward off virus or make it a mild illness,Research have shown(ref-NIH/NCBI/reddy etal) using antiviral,ibuprofen,interferon,antiinflammatory has no evidence in reducing the mortality or morbidity,instead they have found to increase ground glass appearence PA chest post autopsy covid-19 sufferer,ventilator are required for 5% complicated cases for positive airway pressure and O2, this has inherent risk of causing fatality in itself,why you worry for hospital ,ICU and those unrealistic goals in name of epidemic ,every year millions in india die due to nosocomial(hospital indduced/drug related /iatrogenesis),common flu,diarrhoea etc ,We stand united in 15 days lockup but even inspite of this your data shows so much rise in fatality,speak out to health authority and find some other method ,cure to be never worse than disease itself,thats what trump has said today!
Bullshit news pls donor go by false news this idiots are spreading a stupid data
Exactly!
when doses a software entrepreneur become expert on epidemic. It’s sensationalism not journalism.
Pl stop terrorizing people with this kind of articles based on no evidence or irrefutable scientific proof A reputed journal like The Print should not be publishing such articles in the interest of the nation even if the author has freedom of expression which he should keep for himself
The article will autonomously press the panic button inside the reader. Such articles are not appriciated. The data you have presented is just a prediction and such predictions can make people disbelieve the measures government is taking. Your article should be promoting measures to be taken to avoid the trajectory of US and Italy, all it does is just make people believe that soon country will end. What a bullshit!
What is wrong with the media??!! Trying to get get their ratings through scaremongering.
This decease has no history. It is forced on all countries and who is responsible is a mystery till solved after the damage that is destined. Can india put a strong defense against this blitz or surrender lamely cannot become a topic for discussion as all will work towards single goal i.e reduction of death toll. Many pandemics were seen earlier. India has t suffered much and at that time also infrastructure was poor only. So conclusions based on sufficiency of infrastructure hasn’t been right. Let’s pray that all the maths be fail and belief be the winner
We shall flaten the curve
You r a super stupid…i don’t want to waist my time on commenting something senseless
Simply forbidding entry of people from other countries from Feb 1 would have made India a Corona free much earlier. Why should native Indians suffer due to someone bringing it from abroad? Why can’t they stay put wherever they went?
Maybe the same reason people went to their homes in different states after lockdown.
Look at Italy and Spain today please before rejecting the hypothesis. Forewarned is forearmed.
Just try to search state of PPE ( personal protection equipment) for health workers in India today. It will open your eyes to a 19th century heartless approach.
If you think it is alarming, you should be alarmed. If you feel scared, well you should be… I can see “if I close the eyes, world will be dark” attitude and i understand how we Indians are protected and conditioned by every previous generation. So of course we never had a bad news and now even if it’s standing at the front door we just want to not believe it… But instead of blaming the author please be scared. That’s how you can save yourself, near and dear. Train yourself to be in isolation because it’s gonna be a long time. You’re just required to follow some basic guidelines, it’s not that hard.
Being scared is not the right way to fight this situation. We have to be brave enough to understand that this could be fought by taking right measures. Being scared will only cause economic downside and civil unrest and violence. BE A RESPONSIBLE PERSON OF THE WORLD
The trends are dynamic , so case fatality rate will be much higher than quoted in this article..when testing facility will be extended , the no of positive cases will increase exponentially…
As usual the author is one of the persons, people should be aware of and should avoid like poison ivy. These are the type of people, who in overenthusiasm are deliberately trying to create the panic which all in authority and in right senses are trying to avoid. Did the author ever try to think a few facts? First the fatalities are purely on co-morbid patients and that too in advance stages, if the respective families take care of them, it would drastically go down to South Korea level, and that would totally spoil the projections of the author. Second, and this surprises me, there are not much cases and fatalities (touch wood) in the BPL sections and one can’t claim absence of secondary exposure – to maid servants, cooks, valets,….
There are multiple reports which has stated that even healthy people are at risk. WHO has also confirmed this. This is a good article emphasizing on the lack of basic infrastructure with respect to health care. And these are confirmed statistics on the availability of hospital beds etc. please dont compare india’s preparation to South Korea’s. Makes a good laugh!!!!
I request Print to share such articles with health Minisry rather than readers of news papers and Web streams. It would be to share ground real reports. Withdraw this asap Gupta sir
Why withdraw Mr Nagarajan sir. These are some of the likely scenerios. Let us rather face the grim possibility and not die ignorant ,foolled by One man.
you are correct..
The Graph and calculation of spreading having error of not deducting the cases infected people of coming from outside.
Now i just come here for fun because everything doesn’t make sense to anyone. If you are so much better with statistics, you should apply for US Visa because even they can’t predict.
What about your prediction about China then? 1-2 million deaths? 10 million affected?? Isn’t it so easy to say anything?
Why don’t you write articles on praising PM Modi for being the best PM till date.
Dont publish bullshit report if u cannot help india …please dont make them panic.
Do not make Indians panic. We will review your staistics afyer May.
GG
Even if it is half truth we are done here
This is what I would call a totally unnecessary article. Has anyone known coronavirus before, does anyone know FOR SURE how it behaves under different temperatures, does anyone know for sure the TEMPERATURE GRAPH in coming two months? Just to extrapolate some graphs, that too the ones which are NOT BASED on any MATHEMATICAL EQUATIONS which give absolute precise numbers, but are based on the VAGUEST of all sciences called STATISTICS, is something that should not be tried at this juncture. This is plain and simple CREATING FRIGHT in people’s minds.
Is this article vetted by the Government for correctness in its views and predictions?
A more sensible writing is expected
I would implore you not to use numbers from anyone who isn’t an epidemiologist. How is what a “software entrepreneur” thinks about a spread relevant? Even if the numbers somehow turn out to ne correct they are not trained! Their are many, many trained Indian public health professionals, and the media can try a bit harder, I am sure, to find them
Alarmist article.India will manage to halt its spread .I do not agree with the author regarding so many deaths.The figures of next one week will show where we are heading.
What makes you think India will manage?
You could not manage a surprise tactical strike.
It brought Italy down to its knee’s. what makes India special?
Italy a so called developed nation.
After I read this article, I was wondering how to react to this news. Your brand is “the print” but you are a digital platform.
Author is a data journalist, not a medical expert. He’s not even a journalist. Just like ‘ The Print’ is not print but a website…
i would say, you should be ashamed of publishing such articles. You will not be though.
A guy working on excel sheet (and knows nothing beyond this) is writing an expert article on corona virus and The Print is publishing it…
Why are you making us afraid
If COVID 19 does not kill, these statistics will kill. In a video by Shekar Gupta, it was stated that fatality rate is 1.6%. Now, you quote WHO to predict fatality rate of 3.4%. Make up your mind what do you wish to tell the reading public. The Print contributors are being alarmists.
Alarmism can only help in this case if it causes people to take it more seriously.
ThePrint is indulging in scare mongering.
What sort of dishonest negative journalism is this? At this critical hour,you want to blame ” Modi government”. Because you are out of reasons to blame Modi. You find new ways..
Show how doctors are working tirelessly if you have guts. But this chennai author wants to sit at home and comment on the country.
Its okay, Don’t heed the warning, Look at Italy and now compare India with Italy, You will have your answer.
1% or 3% doesn’t matter when you wont have any beds or hospitals.
In crisis , hospital beds are indeed in shortage and then one does not depend on hospital beds. Emergency beds are created then. Our armed forces and paramilitary forces possess expertise to create such facilities at very short notice and as a doctor I have personally experienced it.
To avoid fear in the society,our media should avoid printing articles .Do you think govt in not aware of the grim situation. My dear ,Experts in the ministry ,who know much more then our experts in print and electronic media are working hard to contain the damage.
Lastly we have a very proactive PM who is monitoring the situation and taking appropriate action to tide over the crisis . Have faith and hope for the best.
We the citizens should help the authorities by isolating ourselves to prevent the disease.
There is a difference between heeding any warning or saying things that can cause civil unrest. Recently in Columbia, civil violence caused by panic due to corona virus caused 27 people to die in the violence.