Medical workers attend to a suspected COVID-19 patient in Hyderabad | PTI
File image of medical workers attending to a suspected COVID-19 patient (Representational image) | PTI
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After the largest single-day increase in the number of novel coronavirus cases in India, it has never been clearer that the pandemic is upon us and the next few weeks are going to throw up a scenario that many still find hard to imagine. From the data we have, here’s a look at the near future, and what the Narendra Modi government needs to do.

Graphic by Soham Sen | ThePrint

India is hitting a period of exponential growth

It took India forty days to reach the first 50 cases, five more days to reach 100 cases, three more days to reach 150 cases and then just two more days to reach 200 cases. From here on, the juggernaut is going to roll fast.

The number of confirmed cases in India is now doubling in five days or less, down from six days earlier this month. This puts India in line with trajectories of countries across the world — in the United States, cases are now doubling every two days.

Graphic by Soham Sen | ThePrint

Italy discovered its first case 10 days after South Korea. For another 20 days it had less than 10 cases, even as South Korea’s case count began to rise steadily. But then in a span of one frightening week, Italy’s case count multiplied a hundredfold. Within the next week, South Korea began to flatten the curve, while Italy’s case count continues to skyrocket, completely overwhelming its health system. India needs to try to move its own growth curve away from the Italy trajectory, and fast, with strict implementation of the social distancing measures it has already announced, if not even stricter lockdowns.

Moreover, these are only confirmed cases; to ascertain the true number of cases, India will need to ramp up its conservative testing. On Friday, the Modi government took one small step closer to that by expanding testing to those hospitalised with respiratory distress who did not have known contact with a person with foreign travel history.

Graphic by Soham Sen | ThePrint

India is set for an explosion of cases

At this rate of growth, and assuming the 3.4 per cent fatality rate relative to confirmed cases calculated by the World Health Organization, India is headed for nearly a million confirmed cases by the end of May and over 30,000 deaths. These are conservative estimates. A team of bio-statisticians used predictive modelling and estimated that the number could be even higher, reaching nearly a million cases by 15 May instead. 

COV-IND-19 Study Group | Graphic courtesy: Medium

Sudden single-day spikes, or a higher ratio of estimated to confirmed cases — nearly impossible to put a number to in the absence of more widespread testing — could tip these numbers higher, faster. By assuming that there are eight times as many undiscovered as confirmed cases, Indian software entrepreneur Mayank Chhabra estimated over five million cases and over 1.7 lakh deaths by the end of May.

Many people do not yet realise the severity of what lies ahead — these numbers are vital, particularly in the context of India where the majority of workers do not have job protections. A compensation package on the lines of the one announced by Kerala will be essential pan-India for the long haul ahead.

Graphic by Soham Sen | ThePrint

This will mean health systems will be overwhelmed

With a ratio of just 0.5 beds per 1,000 people as of 2017, India’s existing healthcare infrastructure will be swamped in the coming months. At the current rate of growth of confirmed cases, by early June, India will be out of hospital beds. Factoring in usual bed availability and a faster doubling rate, Chhabra estimates India will be out of hospital beds by the end of April.

The number of critical care beds and ventilators in India is not officially known, but is believed to be sharply lacking. With ICU beds estimated at 70,000 nationally, if even one out of every 10 cases was to require an ICU bed by the end of May, India would be running at full capacity, if not earlier.

Richer countries have struggled, with Italian doctors having to make the impossible decision of choosing who gets a ventilator and who does not, and the army being called in to produce medical supplies. The United States is heading there. Unofficial estimates of the number of ventilators in India stand at around 40,000. Yet, apart from assuring that there are “sufficient ventilators”, the Modi government has been thin on detail on the ramping up of critical care that it is, or should be, doing.

Graphic by Soham Sen | ThePrint

Some states in particular will struggle, hard

Indian states vary widely in capacity on all counts, including health. The poorest states are also the ones with the weakest capacity to deliver health outcomes. In June 2019, the Niti Aayog’s ranking of states on health found that “the health outcomes of some states are comparable to that of some upper middle-income countries and high-income countries (for example, Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) in Kerala is similar to that of Brazil or Argentina), while some other states have health outcomes similar to those of the poorest countries in the world (for example, NMR in Odisha is close to that of Sierra Leone).”

Bihar has just one government hospital bed for every 1 lakh people, while Goa has 20. In Italy, in comparison, the rate of infection has now reached 1 in every 1,280 people. Chhattisgarh has 71 per cent vacancies for specialists at district hospitals. Despite an established treatment plan, Uttar Pradesh has a treatment success rate of just 64 per cent for new microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis cases. Just 15 per cent of facilities at Bihar’s First Referral Units were functional.

There is no clear sign yet that the Modi government will be able to help these states make up for their lack of health care infrastructure, or, even, that it can be done at this late stage.

The time to act was yesterday.

The author is a Chennai-based data journalist. Views are personal.

This article has been updated to reflect that the number of ventilators in India, according to several statements, is 40,000.

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237 Comments Share Your Views

237 COMMENTS

  1. 27 june 2020
    18230 positive
    Reached 5 lakhs
    Total death 15680

    Plz
    You highlights the importance of covid situation in that situation is really to be going to happening at presence

  2. I’m reading this article in June 2nd week and I agree with these comments that projections of this article is quite exaggerated and done prematurely. But I also want to bring the focus of the reader that the main aim of this article is to show the picture of medical facilities and availability of the medical services of India. And I guess they were not totally wrong. Just Google and check the availability of beds in Delhi and the situation of UP and Gujarat.

  3. Ms Rukmini, Your knowledge of Data Analytics is very poor. You are not the intellectual that you want us to believe.

  4. Very imaginative reporting. No medical science base…mere mathematical projections on table without watching out of windows. As today June 4, 2020 deaths in India are 6075 only…for away from 30000 as childishly projected.

  5. this news item is 2020 joke, now we are at 10th may, till now active cases did not cross even 50,000, deaths did not cross even 2000, seems editors of this page are disappointed as indians are doing better than italians

  6. I read this post in march and i thought to comment at the right time. Now this is the right time. You said 30k deaths by may end and its not even crossed 2k till now and today is may 7.

    hahaha waste analysys with those charts and all…your writers dont have any work i think.

    Please give me your address and contact number and meet us outside after lockdown.

  7. The standard fo your journalist are worst than of Pakistan’s journalists, on what data you made these claims.

  8. Now read carefully we are Indian till date whatever data shows by media only those no. Of people affected since last 3 month not at all
    So many people carried virus affected and cured self they are now normal the individual itself don’t know what happened with him we have good immune System so increas ur immune and enjoy life follow instructions by gov don’t get panic

  9. Thank you for sharing this useful information, This blog is really good and the information is also well provided. I read like this article and I gain more information.

  10. I know many will not like my comment but does death of few lakhs people in the country with unabated population growth matter? You may ask who likes to die? As a Sr. Citizen, I am prepared at all time. There are no stats available as had it not been for Coronavirus, still how many of those who died would not have actually survived even otherwise due to other ailments.

  11. You still have a chance to correct your article and improper projection of tens of thousands of deaths in India by 15/5. Else you will end up looking like a fool that cried wolf based on kindergarten level statistical analysis

  12. Some people are calling this article worthless thing and etc.. but you see what happened to the other countries and as per this article this is a warning to all of us that this pandemic can create bizzare scenes in india. As you can see many peoples still didnt take this situation seriously.

  13. Yes , the delayed action by Modi government has caused much problem . without any planning the sudden lockdown had created more problems for the people of all sections. The government had not foresight the magnitude of this pandamic or some of reasons overlooked it.

  14. I think that it is an overestimate and such an estimate will create panic. So such a thing should not be published in Media. After lockdown, first, five days had shown a decrease in the rate but Tablighi Jamat has added the numbers due to its carelessness and slackness of Delhi Government and Delhi Police. These people have created problems for many state governments as they are not coming out voluntarily to get themselves tested and isolated in case of positive symptoms. However, I hope that things will be in control in 3-4 days. The irresponsible role of some religious leaders and social media has created more problems. But, I have noticed one major change which is quite positive that people are now getting serious after Tablighi Jamat’s case in Delhi and movement on roads has reduced drastically in Bengaluru. I hope that people are more serious about the problem now and they are following social distancing to great extent except in a few cases during the shopping of vegetables in a few parts of the country.
    I request to avoid such negative reports as it creates negativity resulting in unlawful activites.

  15. Irrespective of what Author says , it is true that in case of epidemic , only God has helped India.Be it meningitis in Bihar or Dengue in Delhi everywhere God(climate) has only helped. Healthcare system could not rise to the occasion.India has taken care of small pox or TB or malaria but over more than a decade. I donot recall our healthcare system helped it.Eventoday if nature helps, Corona will die otherwise Govt resources are hopelessly inadequate. It is shocking that simple item mask, sanitiser etc couldnot be provisioned in Feb/ March 2020. Had Govt floated one tender in mid Feb to supply 10 crore mask( with design) our MSME would have supplied by 10 March.Same is case with test kits. Same is case with ventilators.Agreed China did not care for world but what stopped India to act in Jan 2020.Our planning is poor. We declare first lockdown then keep on planning for migrant labour.Why did we not foresee?
    That is why we say if God does exist , it is only in India.

  16. This is not a direct exponential calculation we are dealing with here. Anyone can calculate the exponential growth numbers and put the bizzare data to shock the wits out of people. What matters is the measures to break the chain. China, though being the source of virus has set an example as to how the virus can be dealt with, as long as we adhere to social distancing, self quarantine and other disciplinary measures. And countries like USA and Italy are examples of how even the superpowers can fell flat if the virus is dealt on with negligently during the early stages.

    • Bro China cannot be an example as it has been trying to hide every information from who.we can’t even trust whether they had just 81000 cases or more.(I don’t know why China is an example )they are always backstabbers

  17. PM apologies as usual to sidetrack incompetence. Media reports claims small country like Singapore banned international flights with effective from 18th January whereas Modi government implemented during 2nd week of March costs the country heavily. Opposition warnings in Parliament ignored. Government totally busy with big brother NAMASTE TRUMP road shows/photo operations during end of February biggest blunder considering at that time virus peak stage all over the globe. Poor accountability indian’s way of life. Hard decisions like banning international flights not implemented in crucial period like miss the bus.

    • Sonia should talk more about Italy.
      Tablighi Jamat has caused a huge spike. Hope the govt can jail all these stone pelters and spitting on doctors freaks booked under NSA like Shivraj Singh did in Indore.

  18. Dear ;Ms.Rukmini, You spent too, far too, much time in cooking up this “paid” negativest article. You must be one of these “Educated and English Speaking Intellectuals” who rush to the fore front each and every tine they get a chance to mar India.
    Where ARE you presently? USA? Canada? Spain? Italy? UK? Or right at the hell to spread so much scare and venom in just plaint letters!
    You possess very excessive knowledge in making scary graphs with THE WRONGEST DATA!
    With which knowledge did you forecast that India will run into a mess by May?
    Even if you don’t raise a finger in support to the people in times of distress and uncertainty, why don’t you use your bits and pieces of wrong knowledge , at the least to make some face masks for the needy? You earned a name by writing. You made some wealth by writing. NOW make some more use for that money by STOPPING these filth.

  19. Utter Rubbish this article has..
    That foreign author just wrote what comes in his head with little knowledge…Steps taken by India to curb the virus and people’s support is closely observed by other countries for following same lines of safety and protective measures..India will emerge out of this crisis very soon.

    • Can we know from the author how many people die naturally in this country. The fatality rate seems to less than 2 or even 1 percent.

    • I fully agree with you. See the performance of so called Western DEVELOPED Countries perfotmance, then critisise India. Look at the huge USA with population of less than UP. The author should worry more about his own country.

  20. I feel india is putting SINCERE efforts to curb the virus..Europe n italy especially were quite complacent till few days back…Even usa talking of getting business back to track n not acceting the calamity till very recently…I have good hope as india has taken many steps ahead of other developed nations is having countless sacrificing people who r working day n night..we may be poor nation..but our people are our biggest assets… any way there is no drug or vaccine..so govt steps are right n just.
    For those guys who remember kargil war..initial days n month was hopeless..but we emerged later…GOD bless everyone..

  21. All rubbish……first of all don’t blame India govt and don’t panic our people over false information you were published…

  22. In my point of view this pandemic situation will be recovered very soon. We should strictly followed the guidelines of central and state government. Keep hope and confidence on God.

  23. Why should all go to hospital if the effect of virus can be checked by increasing the immunity. Death of 15 out of 634 on 26th March means 2.5 percent, others are recovering with clinical treatment if immunity is good.
    Solution is to to have vitamin B complex and Vitamin C and have lot of exercise to increase immunity . Wear a mask when you go out. Drink lot of water. With these you will not require hospital treatment and clinical treatment with home isolation will do.

    • Dear Jayant, brother, you are right. Thanks for your advices. We just have to strictly follow doctors’ guidelines and the ones you suggested. We better not panic, do not give up, use common sense and have strong faith on the Almighty.

    • We just have to strictly follow doctors’ advices & guidelines. We better not panic, do not give up, use common sense and have strong faith on the Almighty.

    • Vitamins especially C and B Complex, exercises, wearing mask, isolation, drinking warm and if possible hot water and following doctors’ advice and guidance and having strong belief on the Almighty will do wonders.

    • From March 1 to 13, I went thru hell but could not get tested as had no travel history
      — Sore throat
      — Fever 100-102
      — Incessant dry cough
      — Had to rush to hospital with heart rate of 120. ECG turned out fine as per doctors.
      — Terrible body ache
      — Runny nose
      — No hunger … lost 2 kg wt in 13 days
      Blood tests on 14th had screwed up CBC, LIPIDS crashed, inflammation marker thru the roof.
      Despite all this recovery started from 14th March and all fine now.
      So, looks like immune system took care of fighting back.

      Onlt thing I did not do is pelt stones and spit on doctors. That only the peacefuls of Tablighi Jamat do. Now they are doing striptease in Ghaziabad quanrantine center and making lewd remarks/gestures on nurses. Mentally SICK people and not journalists have the balls to publish their misdeeds.

      The hate of this journalist for Modi is so evident. Print sucks.

  24. This is totally baseless data and it seems the writer is foreigner not Indian. In the time crisis one must console other instead of exposing a threatening data. The virus has been produced may be naturally it would go vanished naturally. Just we must follow govt instructions strictly.The new cases will rise for 7 days and then it would be closed forever.The remaining would be safe and our economy will be stronger rapidly. Just depend on nature

  25. From my point of view……I think this lockdown will be extend in future for 1 month……because day by day the patients of corona are increasing…..means the spreading of COVID-19 is very fastly…..all over the India……

  26. The assumption of continued exponential growth even after the measures taken by central and state governments is not realistic

  27. First of all thank you very much for providing such information. Now as per my opinion if lockdown will be followed by Indian seriously the damage will be few because We were preparing our systems as per experience We got from the other countries where it created worst. God is with us

  28. Every big problem with many data inputs can be put up in a right way to find out, control and remove problem out of system. While making the P Diagram it is important to take 1) right input datas, 2) right boundaries 3) right controls 4) right nearby assumtions 5) positive attitude for sustainable solution. A wrong assumption without right controls consideration will take the problem outcome in wrong direction. We need to keep measure of shorter time to resolve problem and come out with best solution. The world trade center Design for six Sigma never considered a failure with top air attack with fuel burning and melting and we know the result which was never expected.

  29. Hey Rukmini,

    Thanks for sharing a possible scenario. While many people are bashing this likely scenario and not ready to accept, I see this becoming a possibility if don’t act on time.

    Can you help me understand the assumptions made to paint this scenario and run the data models? Was the current move of 21days lockdown taken into the model? If it is not taken, would this course of action change the future scenario?

    I’m happy to have a thoughtful discussion. I’m working with groups to pass on genuine information and make them understand the reality of Covid-19 and it’s impact.

    Thanks
    Arjun

    • Exactly. They are just creating fear psychosis. India is not Europe or US. Geography is different, people are different, habits are different, immunity is different

    • The number of cases for next 1 week would be crucial and then again a week after that and will give a exact clarity on where this is headed.
      Let’s assume cases reach 1000 with the current rate by 29th March. Given the scenario in the world, these are doubling every 5 days, if these grow to 2k by 3rd April and 4k by 8th April, we would be more screwed than what is being predicted above. But if the numbers are lower than these, the lockdown is showing its magic and India would be doing amazing to contain and eradicate covid-19
      Let’s hope for the best

  30. This fear is only true when the government does not take any action whatsoever….but with present suitable actions by govts it will subside…

  31. Heavenly Father,
    I call upon you to please bless our Nation. Bless all our people. Keep them safe from all evil. Thank you Heavenly Father that you love all Mankind and because of your Great Love for us…you will bring all of us out Victoriously. Our hearts and eyes are upon you now at this critical hour and we know that you will hear my Prayer to help all our People and give strength to our Government who is helping all of us at this hour. Keep all of them safe Heavenly Father in your Loving Hands. Thank you Heavenly Father that you have heard my Prayer

  32. It is a true Statement because only making progress in buying warship and making technology is not important then making ventilation. India is only developed in phase to remove articles no govt has shown improvement in making hospitals to save its people from health related problems. It shows a path to every govt that in which field they should show development… Thanks

  33. this article is just made for scary the people. I was not convinced with any point he mentioned in the stastics table. its completely rubbish. may be print media thought that they can print anything on the website so they made this news…

  34. Ms Rukmini, when you have ugly face and ugly heart atleast you should keep ur own personal agenda against the national interest limited to urself. Nobody listens to you kind of buggers.

  35. Such a baseless article. This guy hasn’t factor in the measures taken by government. Why we will follow the curve path of Italy or US if there is lockdown already in place. Till date counts has increased beacuse people were moving around freely. Not the correct analysis of the situation.

    • No doubt the government should tackle the current situation more strictly, even in lock down lot of persons are loitering in the roads without any reason.
      More serious attitude of government will certainly help to recover from this situation.
      Let us hope for a better tomorrow.

  36. Listen!! Whoever u r… India is in much better condition ur developed countries like USA. We are fighters. India will not cross 1500 +ve corona cases. Lock my words.

    • But bro we are still not doing mass testing…. In fact till 23 of march our total testing was approx 17000 ( and that no of testing South Korea doing in single day) so bro we cant comment anything about number of cases..

      • You are right –
        In total, a little above 16,000 tests have been conducted, compared with South Korea, where well over 300,000 people out of its 52 million populationhave been tested.

  37. Who are you people, definitely not journalists, seems completely ill motivated. Have you been paid to right this rubbish. Where from do you do this research, do you have any idea what is the capability of govt machinary or like goonks just blurting out open source and demeaning own nation. Your abysmal graphs aim to show India in poor light. In trying times like these, the only job of media is to motivate people, help the govt efforts, create awareness NOT instigate or incite the general public. This article must be removed and these educated illiterates must close there gob and sit at home.

  38. Print is anti national by core. They feel these things will happen as these people are pessimistic. Let them save Europe. We will manage to our corona endemic.

  39. SG Ji, what sort of nonsense this is? More than a Journalist you are now heading a Publication house. Please ensure some quality,

  40. Kindly concentrate on a balanced review of matters. You are not writing the script of a thriller movie. This kind of write up creates unrest and a sense of doom. Kindly learn the art of conveying matters in a more responsible way rather than creating such horrifying piece of literature just for gathering greater public views.

    • First of all, you should know some basic maths before opening your bloody mouth. With a doubling time of 6 days or so and around 500 cases to date, the authors are absolutely correct in whatever information they have published here.

  41. Did your seniors not read this report before posting ?

    Absurd !

    Why are the efforts for fighting the Cvirus not mentioned ?

    I feel, the report is irresponsibily written.

  42. This sheer stupidity, u have a software engineer who calculated these statistics for u! No need to spread panic. We are in a much better position than Italy! This deciding week will definitely shut negative mouth! Just indoor don’t spread corono or your negativity!
    The gov of India knows what it is doing.

  43. Are you guys aware the basis definition of data ? Well, I am a data scientist. Let me illustrate, data means collection of facts. What you are (falsely and painfully) doing here is projection. You are creating panic among people for rhe sake of few clicks or visits. If you are not able to support each other, STFU and watch Netflix. Don’t spread panic. After reading all negative comments, any sensible journalist/journalism body would take down pages like this. Shame on you, morons!!!!

    • You are right, Sudheer – “After reading all negative comments, any sensible journalist/journalism body would take down pages like this. ” Sadly, in the print-media, columnists/ editors treat negative comments as a measure of success. Plus, it’s not interactive – they manufacture an article and no dialogue happens. No explanation, no justification. That is why such pieces are quite damaging.

  44. Rukmini S and Soham Sen – You both will definitely pay for this soon. And People are not dumb Morons like you. So just stop these nonsense and first go buy a mask for urself and sit at home safe, I mean sit at home without writing rubbish……!! 😂

    • How are these people are tolerated even in their homes. So negative and full of hatred. Look at the way this beach has ended her article “time to act was yesterday” seriously??? What a w ho re

  45. If you cannot write an article to boost the morale
    Of people , atleast don’t create panic . All the Covid related articles be allowed to go public only after government permission. What kind of maths or statistics was it . Based on your theory can you imagine mortality rate in USA ?

  46. All good but you missed recovery stats ..so even assuming people don’t listen to govt and all the death won’t be so much.
    And now considering that govt. Is still taking all measurements and also considering the fact that if not all a lot of population is going to follow the instructions.. i think thing’s won’t be so severe still yes thing’s will be bad. Government need to increase testing now and people need to stay the fuck inside their DAMN house PERIOD(except for emergencies)… Otherwise thing’s won’t be far off from what writer is describing.

  47. All good but you missed recovery stats ..so assuming people don’t listen to govt and all the death won’t be so much.
    And now considering that govt. Is still taking all measurements and also considering the fact that if not all a lot of population is going to follow the instructions.. i think thing’s won’t be so severe still yes thing’s will be bad.

  48. His analysis is just manifestation of rotten mind set.I predict that he may be below average student in the college days and not understood meaning of journalism.

  49. God -the superior power who shaped the UNIVERSE will see us through this CORONA virus.It is transforming us and we are coming closer to each other in solidarity.
    INDIA is my country and all Indians are my brothers and sisters.We stand together with our Prime Minister .His wisdom cannot be underestimated at this moment
    We will not panic or fear for OUR GOD will lift us up from this virus.That is our Indian faith and spirituality as all believe in ONE GOD although different forms .Jai hind.

    • True very true a superior power above named as God knows what to do and when to end …
      Let us all try to stay safe and abide the rules ..
      Rest destined will happen

    • Wow.. This is a result of pure hatred toward the man. Spewing such kinda BS during these testing times will only add to the already resolute support of the PM.

  50. Honestly though, isn’t this too much. Your stats are complete garbage. Honey if you can’t do math then dont put that stuff on the internet. I’ll tell you; do us all a solid by going back to school and studying. Besides, what’s the point of rambling on about something and adding a bunch of graphs? Will do any good? How bout you use this opportunity to learn, take down this trash and write something that will help to solve the problem. Just a thought!

  51. Honestly though, isn’t this too much. Your stats are complete garbage. Honey if you can’t do math then dont put that stuff on the internet. I’ll tell you; do us all a solid by going back to school and studying. Who even allowed this in the internet, I’m perplexed.

  52. Singer kanika kapoor return from abroad and not been put in isolation for 14days neglecting that she don’t have any symptoms and what happened Now… after three days she was tested positive … A girl from manipur came from UK a few days ago and at any airport she is fine with no symptoms coz she is not putting on isolated place but let her go home .. .. And what happened got diagnosed after three days . . She is now at the hospital but think about her natives, friends and all who were in contact with her . .. ..Mary Kom is breaking the law. … Please notice it for the nation s future . .. Even great celebrity actors are aware of this.. . Help India to be saved not only by words but by deed. .. Quarantined for 14days at the spot every one who came from abroad at the same day please … I am just a poor boy trying to save myself my family and my nation

    • I think u r correct Modi govt did a lot of.loop.holes .. when all the people.who have come from.abrode should have been put under 14 days observation and not let to come out … Now we will be in a complete mess in some months ..

    • My boy, I am 63 , retired from Central Government Service. Staying home , my daughter is also an Central Government Government Employee. Reading those two persons Article and seeing the Graphic I totally feeling nervous about my daughters future. I don’t know how these stupid fellows will keep mum.

      • Don’t panic sir. The scenario is not as bad as these mor ons are projecting it. There are several factors which should be taken into consideration, not just throwing some random numbers and graphs by some random IT guy. Just stay put at your home, these days will pass soon.

  53. I am surprised by ur pessimistic view ,just not aware of the morality of journalism. Better u try to change ur attitude towards our citizens & our Nation. By motivating the citizens and providing some positive support u can increase their immunity to some extend.Also gathering some useful information which could b shared with them to safeguard .

    • Immune system has nothing to do with positive news. stop writing useless things. None of what you have written helps anyone but you and keep yourself in false sense of security.

  54. You ought to be ashamed of yourself for spreading panic for a meagre piteous cry for attention in a situation that needs strength, resolve and boosting morale. You are not a person worth a single penny for your “opinion.” If you have any morals whatsoever you will take this abhorrent waste of words down immediately.

  55. I see maximum on negative thoughts here on this website. They don’t talk about precautions and measures. They just blame others and create panic!
    Create a post to bring awareness, not panic!

  56. The Indian systems of medicine have excellent immune boosters and the government of India has a department to promote these systems. But the decisions seem to have been taken by people controlled by the global pharma lobby. They didn’t even bother to look at these possibilities even when they were searching in the dark. What the government should have done was to at least test these immune boosters on volunteers. The advantage is that they protect people from not one species of virus but many species, including new ones. Sad to see that a government that took the initiative to start an AYUSH department and declare “Make in India” initiative failed to utilise our own ancient knowledge. It could have become a path-breaking finding in fighting such epidemics and pandemics. Instead, we are still following the West, and not leading the world.

  57. Don’t forget that god is still living in our country. He/she save us. Now the medicine has also invented. So don’t worry but be cautious & obey government rule strictly. God bless us.

  58. What about summer and higher temperatures in India?
    There has been reports Corona is not that resistant to higher temperatures and spread may slow down.
    Italy allowed large No. of workers from China Wuhan province to work in some leather factories it seems and No of people who smoke and have respiratory problems is also high there.

  59. This guy knows he is writing nonsense ……I this he is paid by Chinese to create havoke among indians ..because china wants investment to run away from our country

    ……see PM has given freedom to media for some reason that doesn’t mean you can write all Nonsense

    This guy has to be questioned by RAW and IB simultaneously

    Hopeless article at this juncture ……..

    INDIA WILL OVER COME !!!! JAI HIND

  60. I will sue The print if things doesn’t go as said above. I will take you to court for sure. You guys are morons. You can’t do anything yet spreading hoax.

  61. What about summer and higher temperatures in India(36 C in South India atleast)?
    There has been reports Corona is not that resistant to higher temperatures when compared to cool temperatures in Europe.
    Italy allowed large No. of workers from China Wuhan province to work in some leather factories it seems and No of people who smoke and have respiratory problems is also high there.

    • There doesn’t seem to be any evidence at least so far to show that higher temperatures will suppress the virus. This has been repeatedly stated by experts. So, no chance there, as far as we can see.

  62. Please don’t scare anyone in your life time. Also try to stop writing such pessimistic articles in the name of “statistics” never ever again. Try to be optimistic all time. Forget about the leads or statistics. However the situation is worse, please try to have positive thoughts in your mind, things/ situation will improve/change. If you still believe in “negative” statistics, I would strongly suggest you to do statistics for your own first.

    • I support your point that people now need positive points and reassuring words. Even the best statistics can go wrong. Life cannot be reduced to statistical numbers. That’s just one point of view and not the complete truth. One question: why did your graph took so long to reach an appreciable figure? I only advise that we in India must understand social distancing much more seriously because the disease has come from abroad.

  63. I will be the happiest person if half of the people from the useless “Print” are affected. Writing at its worst. Stop scarring people. If you can’t help don’t create panic. The government is doing all it can to stop the spread. You guys are seriously more dangerous than the virus. Shame on you guys.

  64. I am sure editor is gonna be one among those 30k.

    Shame on you…If you were so confident about your guesstimates, why didnt you give your bullshit analysis to Italy and USA??

    Stop publishing your bullshit opinions.

  65. have hit it!! where were these gems when the virus was spreading in china? he didnt have the merit to become a IAS or a doc..the easiest way to be in thick of things without shouldering responsibility is journalism! gupta, was thrown away by the express owner’s son for defalcating funds! also, these stories are part of sabotage mechanism…fear mongering, spook the public and the govt so that the present dispensation is thrown away and the old suspects are back in power. that will help ilk of gupta and his tribe to make merry at the cost of citizens!

  66. Stop printing all these nonsense. You half-educated media and educated illiterates are doing more harm than anything else for India.

      • Ask yourself the same question before asking others. Could you or this so call journo give any guesstimate for other heavily affected countries. It could have helped stop fatalities. Here, with a few parameters in hand for a complex country like India these people are doing Excel sheet calculations in the name of research? Save yourself and others if you can and don’t try to scare away people if you cant help.

  67. Scary situation… Time to think wise, follow the guidelines very strictly & stay at home. Rest in God’s hands…🙏

    • Correctly analysed. Stick to guidelines without fail. Rest will be fine. Containment will be progressive after 21 days.

  68. If we consider only the rate in growth of the cases it may appear like million people to be infected by May but if we consider the one fact inspite of no serious steps being taken till 22 nd March, the no of cases with local contamination is not that exponential compared to other countries. I agree there is a danger but with the serious measures in place and all the imported contamination is restricted( barring the international passengers) the situation is not that panic. In my opinion in India the infected cases will be less than two to three lakh by May end.

  69. Scaring people with half baked math is not what India needs right now. Awareness and precautions are a must but this is NOT the time to take sides and criticise the government. We together as Indians have to fight this virus. Each and every citizen needs to be responsible and that includes the journalist who has written this. False and alarming statistics is of help to nobody at this stage and I request all the media out there to project positivity and not fear. That is the last thing we need now.
    Be safe. Be aware. DO NOT PANIC.

  70. Italy acted way too late.
    The strict lockdown India is undergoing will definitely make a difference, it will slow the spreading as everybody is confined to their houses.
    We will hope and pray for the best and with the help of our government, medical services and support of people we will succeed.

  71. Do your research. Look up this site, it will explain all statistics and you can see why percentages being reported are different.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    It is not scaremongering, it is spreading so fast that there’s too much data for all news to report the same. Symptoms don’t show for 2 to 14 days so people don’t know they are spreading it. Start making more medical supplies now, more masks and PPE for hospitals.

    Here in the USA we are just starting to test more people and we just had more than 10,000 new cases detected just yesterday. the number will grow rapidly.

    Avoid people especially the stupid ones that don’t care, theyre the ones spreading it most. keep your hands clean and don’t touch your face especially in public. It effects people with pre-existing respiratory problems, diabetes, older people (60+ yrs) and heart problems worse than others. Some youger or healthy people positive with Covid-19 SHOW NO SYMPTOMS. This is why it is spreading so fast.

    Good Luck India!!! Please contain it and save lives.

    -Woman in San Francisco Bay, California

    • China should have tell the truth earlier, WHO has become puppet in chines hands,
      WHO also misleaded the world ,responsible for thousands deaths,

      Love to Donald Trump,

      Student, from India

    • Exactly, Mr.Kristin, I pressed the same link for this writer. She just taped on her PC away at will and vengeance thinking that she is shoveling filth on Modu JI. If she has any data at the site you indicated she would have done a very different article. These “Half Citizens” love to mar India on the slightest chance. Instead, even being a women of India and Tamilnadu, she is spreading venom in loyalty to her political bosses and the wafts of currency they tossed at her. Please look into some of her earlier articles. Most of them were “Invertebrate Organisms”.Thank You very much.

  72. India getting in indians stuck overseas so its onvious you may see sharp rise when they land. Dont hide fact. You cant see the future nor your a medical expert so please dont print such thing

  73. Data maybe skewed and the article may not be palatable to majority, but the truth remains whether one like it or not.
    India is definitely in danger….. Whether we overcome it / be a prey depends on each and every citizen. It’s not the time to fight over frivolities but time to be prudent & wise.
    Crying will not save but right action definitely will save

  74. prediction business is wrought with inaccuracies and personal bias. What have you achieved by making such startling data based on assumptions other than spread panic. The government and concerned agencies are capable of, and making efforts to do their best. Stop scaring people. In is anti-national ( that is the current flavour so I am using it. I mean something similar). Stay at Home and take a break.

  75. Your statistical analysis is impeccable, your subtle criticism of the Modi Govt. extraordinary. Please offer your valuable suggestions on what to do now and how to arrest the spike in the number of cases. What should the government do, given the tendency of our people to disregard the law (lockdown in this case). By the way, does the fault lie with the current central government and state governments that our health care facility is inadequate? What about the governments of USA, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Iran etc etc etc? Why is the virus overwhelming the healthcare facilities and governments all over the world (except North Korea, may be-Mr Kim is busy in testing nuclear capable missiles even now).
    The fact of the matter is that mankind has been too busy in digging it’s own grave, making bombs and missiles when there other so many pressing needs. Why blame the Modi government or any particular government?
    Finally, I would love to read your criticism of the Chinese government for suppressing facts in the initial stages and letting this become a pandemic. Their own citizens who dare to do so, either die or become untraceable. You write please. The Modi government or the Johnson government (depends on where you are) will not allow any harm to come your way.

  76. Thanks for being part of the fear-mongering network. Just extrapolating data using some half baked math doesn’t make a good story, responsible journalism is the need of the hour.

  77. Don’t create panic. The world is already in place of worst position. India is a young County how you can calculate 30000 deaths by May 20, whereas the government has already taken precautions to lockdown etc

  78. India has 40000 ventilators not 4000 and ordered hospitals in India ordered for 8900 ventilators in 2019 alone and 1200 more ordered so far in 2020 so if you don’t have the facts atleast don’t spew such rubbish articles and generate mass hysteria amongst the people.

    Data from China shows around 15 % Covid-19 patients get sick enough to need hospitalisation and 5% require ventilator support in ICU. Your scenario assumes that 1 in every 10 patients will need to be on ventilator support what is the basis for such wild assumptions?

    Such online media know-alls should be sued for misleading statements and creating panic among the population which will drive hoarding, unnecessary movement among ppl and over-crowding everywhere resulting in faster spread of the disease.

  79. Please write what to do and what not to contain the disease. You just cannot apply maths and come up with no’s which might be totally wrong . It’s like closing eyes and shooting and if you hit bulls eye you are Arjun. Show facts and measures to be taken . Please remove your article

  80. While we understand ,the article is based on the Data science and projection, the tone is very pessimistic and creating Fear. Why cant the solution, ideas to flatten curve also be published the way the fear message and article published. And ventilator data has been put up wrong , this creates the image , how many other data source have been casually taken.

    • The problem with this journalism is that intention is to create panic. Data which they have used may not be wrong as on the date it has been written. Graphs etc will make it more impressive. The government is wise enough and there is a sense of accountability in the system unlike in the past, the lockdown has been announced and being enforced so this rate will not be applicable to India. Two unknown factors in the horizon, one is an environmental factor and second is treatment regimen will also be important. Right now solid studies on both fronts are lacking. I am very sure that if lockdown till 15 April is successful, we will be able to stop the community transmission. The present dispensation at Delhi is capable to do it.

  81. Do you even know how to do forecasting? Which modelling you used to forecast this analysis? And yes please do not say this not responsibility to Print, opinions and views expressed are of individuals……

  82. Clickbait, you guys should be ashamed of yourselves. Trying to get clicks by spreading panic instead of being useful, low morals.

  83. Data journalist? What the hell is that? Who certified her? Give me access to Excel I can show you better graphs. You are drain inspectors and nothing more. If we fall short of 30000, one knows where to make up the numbers from…start with The Print.

  84. I am a Doctor from one of the largest government hospital in India.We know the ground reality of Indian health care system.Health care systems should reflect the main motto of cleanliness where as in India,Government hospitals are where you get lots of hospital acquired Infections(nosocomial i fections).
    In a country where people are more interested to spend on statues and temples than on Health and Education are going to get a hard lesson now.
    Poor health care system(due to low spendings on health) and poor education(resulting in believing of fake news,unable to understand the situation,many superstitions to combat)
    PS:in normal days we struggle to find enough Betadine,surgical spirit,gloves and masks..rest is left to be understood

  85. You ask what makes India makes special…… I do consider you alarmness about this situation but unlike italy we do not treat the lockdown periods as holidays. People just thought this as a excuse for partying. Whereas in indian all pubs, restaurants and bars were banned first handedly and 30 of the provinces have been lockdown 100+ districts are following curfew because unlike italy we understood the alarmness of the situation before it’s expontial rise.

    • my dear friend, i can correct u on the statement of unlike italy we dont treat lockdown as a holiday. havent u seen the news ? so many are still seen on the roads ,wandering on bikes, also have a look at the markets. what will u call this? are they not holidaying?

  86. जिस अर्थशास्त्री ने पहला वाला graph बनाया है, उसके अर्थशास्त्र के गुरु को नम आंखों से श्रृद्धांजलि ।

  87. I am heartbroken and disappointed to see educated Indians commenting like this. Countries like South Korea have handled SELF ISOLATION very well. US and European nations have lower population density so it’s easier for Social Distancing. Coming to India. People are actually celebrating this disease by dancing in the streets. And you are asking not to get scared? Are you kidding me? I am stuck in the US. I have not gone out of my house for 2 weeks straight. People are scared and everyone is doing everything they can to stay inside and let the government do its job. You have no idea how easy it is for the virus to spread in India. In this scenario, it’s beneficial for the country to be scared. There’s no bravado in questioning worst case simulations like this. You want to pay respect to doctors and all? GET SCARED AND STAY INSIDE YOUR HOUSE. Make their job of SAVING YOU easier.

  88. Indeed an alarmimg content.. But please also highlight the worst affected age groups which are 60years and above. It is also seen that fatality cases are the ones who already had lungs issues and breathing problems. Nevertheless social distancing is the mantra to flatten the curve.

  89. So in China after 4 months total number of cases stands at 81k +, from last one week there is no local transmission, probably after 1-2 months there wont be any corona cases in chine..
    then how it will infect 9 lack Indians in next 2 months? .. so by this logic how many will get infected in italy and china?

    just do not create panic.

  90. Having an epidemiology background I know the only solution in a country with a high density of population is social distancing. The budget for medical needs is way far too low for a country with dire medical needs, we don’t have enough testing kits or masks. The budget for health outlay needs to be upgraded.

  91. Why this line while talking about hospital infrastructure in Indian states? :
    In Italy, in comparison, the rate of infection has now reached 1 in every 1,280 people

  92. What is India’s problem ? ( Hint it is not corona)

    India’s problem is Congress, leftist, Kerala, Naxalites, Trinamool Congress, The Print and The Wire.

    Eliminate these from India and we Indians will never have any problems ever.

    You can start by eliminating Congress from Indian Soil and notice 50 percent of difference.

  93. See your countries stats where you licks elites boots , don’t care about us we are self capable with us is the nature

  94. Right. Unfortunately India is very bad at health services. Doctors and paramedics are good but overburdened. Everyone has a fear of Corona . We the doctors are also frightened. We know that the situation might get worsen day by day. There would be exponential increase in the number of patients with even more fear and fatigue. What if doctors start getting the infection. When the patient is serious we always forget our safety. Yes , we have some more number of ventilators in private hospitals .But any machine in government set cannot be trusted to over work .I wish there was no corruption in India .Inspite of having good human resources , we lack facilities. Hundreds of ventilators might be lying untouched and unused at unknown places. Many might be nonfunctional due to poor quality machine . The hospital administration is interested in purchase ONLY. I am sure Corona fear will work better than God fear. Indians have potential to do wonders . Together we will fight and win.

  95. Her personal views so friends don’t take her seriously.
    Do take seriously precautions against this lethal disease. Don’t go out unnecessarily. Let them harp on…..

  96. This article is revealing future possible danger going to be faced by India.

    Actually, the print worked out most scientifically and logically to bring this news.
    But, we are unable to digest the truth.

  97. Dear sir,people of india have taken a solemn oath that they won’t budge…i dunno know but i guess common people here are more intelligent than all the so called intellectuals..but u see the problem is corona virus doesn’t discriminate…Godi media started celebrating even before it started..they became conclusive when the world was still speculative…they have now started to realize “coronasur” is much more than a fictional villain…it is a reality…an ongoing reality..very hard and very painful…kudos to healthcare dept for singlehandedly dealing with crisis…it is good if they say country is getting applauded for its measures…but what now.cases have started showing a spurt….the budget that should have been allocated earlier has been given now….healthcare support system remains dismally low..health officials are doing their job in a very unsupportive env especially if financial backing is concerned..immediate cuts and steps should have been taken to atleast make sure equipment is enough..it is the states that are taking and drafting measures..god knows what will happen if it gets out of their control and becomes more of the center’s responsibility…but their supporters are busy in pr machinery…i haven’t seen anywhere some pm or president getting applauded for suggesting precautions..it is their duty..i mean trump,bolsnaro were shown mirror when needed… we must respect but not follow blindly…but celebrating like everything is resolved when it has just started..even the most of the public figures remain dumb…but don’t be scared because KASAM SE….hum nhn manenge..tab tak jb tk aag hmare ghr mei nhn lgegi…it is time to fear,panic and not say sb acha hai

  98. Seems like a lot of comments by people who don’t understand math. A good way of looking at it as follows. Let’s assume the average time taken for the disease to run its course (till death) ~ 20 days. Let’s further assume a Case Fatality Rate of 1% That means per death on Day T, there would have been 100 people exposed on Day T-20. With a doubling time of 5 days. Those 100 people (without any social distancing etc) will go on to infect other people such that on Day T-15 there will be 200 people, T-10 400, Day T-5 800 and Day T 1600. Of doubling times continue at every 5 days, then day T +20 looks like 25600. Deaths on day T + 40 = 1% of 25600 = 256. People can run these numbers by changing the assumptions, CFR and doubling time to _game_ the scenario, but the bottom line revolves around preventing the spread of the disease to give everyone enough time to figure out Rx protocols and manage case loads. If hospitals are overwhelmed, CFR rises. In Italy it is close to 10% In S Korea it is below 1%

  99. I am a doctor working in the NHS UK. I work in critical care and over the last two days the ICU has been filled with Corona virus patients who are now on the ventilators . We are expecting the hospital to be flooded with Corona virus patients in a week . By April we will likely have to choose who will get treatment and who will be left to die. The experts here expect that 5lakh people will die due to the Corona virus . UK government was late in instituting a lock down . India was earlier , but the Corona virus is nearly impossible to contain . Thousands of people will die in India and probably more. Please isolate yourself to save millions of lives. The last great pandemic of 1919 killed 1 core Indians. Let us not make that mistake again. Stay in , regular handwash and social distancing is a must .

  100. What are the upper and lower bound of your prediction curve? With what confidence you guys say 1 million by may?

    This is not just poorly written, but, I believe, a freehand drawing. Just because you know excel, it doesn’t make you good at data, let alone disease modeling.

  101. Projecting into August, your model projects that all Italians will be dead and the US will loose half of its population. That’s the absurdity of your model. You claim that by the end of May, over 5 million will be infected and 1.7 lakh will be dead, gives a death ratio of 3.3%. The world average is less than 1%. For India, which has a younger population, this ratio is expected to be even less. Indian statisticians at home and abroad are going crazy with their modelling, projecting their biases of an India that is ignorant, poor and backward. I expect more honesty in their work.

  102. Media like you are waiting for some news to come who are ready to exaggerate any situation, we know the situations could be worst if this pandemic spreads but you should not write an articles like this rather if you have good suggestions for the govt to act upon , you should recommend that. But you are on a verge to criticise the govt, now also. We all very well know that we have a shortage of health services but we all have one thing common , that we all have some hopes either with our gods or from the good deeds we do. This article can create havoc amongst common people and i am reporting this and it should be removed.

    • I dont think , the writer is trying to exaggerate the situation. People must understand the gravity of this situation. Ignorance was probably the sole reason that Italy surpassed China’s death toll. Government must act quick enough unless its thinking that people shall enjoy virus’ company more than human’s .

    • Virus won’t see your good deed man…while infecting…if the cases increase with such exponential rate..then no prayer will save you man , except the hospitals and the health workers,which is quiet insufficient here. n Why are u showing so much sympathy to govt. ???We have every right to question government at any situation… If our health system would have that efficient ,there wouldn’t have any article like such… instead of making mandirs and statues, govt. would have better invested money on hospitals and research laboratories.. bcz when u r dying u don’t go to temples , u come to hospital… But people like u will never understand this.and it’s very pathetic

  103. THE PRINT

    It is not worth commenting but the fact you people are the same ones who get 1000-1500GBP on each anti India article, but here you are just showing that you don’t care about journalism and your duty also your mathematics is shittier than your brain, just want to fulfil your greed and create fear- don’t worry COVID-19 will be at your doorstep next because I think when the nature is getting rid of pollution it should get rid of such people like the Print.

    • Exactly. I was wondering the same thing. Its 40,000 and not 4,000. And i read that govt is taking appropriate steps to ramp it up. Must be deliberate. What can you expect from these morally bankrupt commie jihadis. He wants 1.7 lakh deaths. Shame on the journalist for spreading such panic in times like these. Rise above your greed and hatred. Such a highly biased article.

  104. Creating a sense of fear is the need of the hour and that is the sole intent of this article. And those “intelligent” folks who comment saying there is nothing to be afraid of and questioning the stats , I’m sorry to say that you may at some point become responsible for the death of a random person or who knows maybe even your close ones or even you. Someone reading “your” comment may feel it’s ok to step out for something that was never important and well you know what happens next…be responsible with your comments, people should be scared , there plenty of idiots out there and they need to be scared if you want you ans your loved ones to stay alive

  105. Rewind your trajectory and put your theory in China based on their mid Jan data and show us what should be the result today for them …don’t create panic ……

  106. It is a problem if everyone other person claim to be epidemiologist, every other person claiming to be doctor and scientist and scare the sh1t out of everyone. A responsible journalist is the one who reports the news, not scary a fiction.

  107. These are alarming statistics, and alarmed you should be. It’s not smart to only expect a good outcome ahead and these statistics could be the worst case scenario.

  108. This is not a failure of modi government , it is failure of all government from freedom time to this time . And the main reason behind this is people who not ask any questions from bjp or Congress or any other government . All government think peoples are foolish and they right in this case. And ultimately the print news you are also a one way news publisher , if you want to aware the people then you should need to publish that news which shows all governments failure and also all religions fundamentalist not one way new.

  109. Do not make such false statement without any relevant data, just a trajectory can not predict near future. Try to avoid such panic in the people of the country where many are illiterate and take any news seriously. Try and send such study to GOI rather than keeping on the readings for people of the country.

    • The people of the country should understand the severity of the problem in order to strictly follow all measures to contain the virus as far as possible.

  110. Kerala has the 3 case in Jan 1st week and now at 45, how can u relate this fact. If we prepare and act smart as Kerala is doing now this will be contained with in 2 months. Pls write an article by May.

  111. It is believed, the evil are likely to turn kind hearted when confronted with death. These kind of articles are meant to scare us Indians into becoming nice people. I am not going to change one bit.

  112. I don’t know what is going to happen by the end of May but I am sure that something very bad is going to happen because most of the Indians are not taking this pandemic seriously especially the less educated people . It’s true that the medical facility in India is not so good as compared to the develope countries , consequently large number of people will lose their lives in the coming weeks . So , please be serious and follow the instructions as prescribed by government of India . Stay in your homes and don’t come out unnecessarily just to see that what is happening on the streets . Keep yourself and others safe . It’s a request .

  113. Disease and human reaction to it is naturally a personal affair,To some extent justified institutional support may be required for community level epidemics since community living is a state affair,but every couple of year new viral panic and deaths are overinflated in media(swine flu,chickengunea,avian flu etc) has been show post 2000 not before that,when there are no medicines for viral infections why you are spreading fear amidst chaos ,Key sera Key sera what will be will be ,feature is not our to see —Lets be prepared ,suggest positive tips like eating healthy, taking help of indigenous medicines ,plants ,yoga and Strong belief in creator ,sprituality,love, compassion to develop innate immunity and ward off virus or make it a mild illness,Research have shown(ref-NIH/NCBI/reddy etal) using antiviral,ibuprofen,interferon,antiinflammatory has no evidence in reducing the mortality or morbidity,instead they have found to increase ground glass appearence PA chest post autopsy covid-19 sufferer,ventilator are required for 5% complicated cases for positive airway pressure and O2, this has inherent risk of causing fatality in itself,why you worry for hospital ,ICU and those unrealistic goals in name of epidemic ,every year millions in india die due to nosocomial(hospital indduced/drug related /iatrogenesis),common flu,diarrhoea etc ,We stand united in 15 days lockup but even inspite of this your data shows so much rise in fatality,speak out to health authority and find some other method ,cure to be never worse than disease itself,thats what trump has said today!

  114. Pl stop terrorizing people with this kind of articles based on no evidence or irrefutable scientific proof A reputed journal like The Print should not be publishing such articles in the interest of the nation even if the author has freedom of expression which he should keep for himself

  115. The article will autonomously press the panic button inside the reader. Such articles are not appriciated. The data you have presented is just a prediction and such predictions can make people disbelieve the measures government is taking. Your article should be promoting measures to be taken to avoid the trajectory of US and Italy, all it does is just make people believe that soon country will end. What a bullshit!

  116. This decease has no history. It is forced on all countries and who is responsible is a mystery till solved after the damage that is destined. Can india put a strong defense against this blitz or surrender lamely cannot become a topic for discussion as all will work towards single goal i.e reduction of death toll. Many pandemics were seen earlier. India has t suffered much and at that time also infrastructure was poor only. So conclusions based on sufficiency of infrastructure hasn’t been right. Let’s pray that all the maths be fail and belief be the winner

  117. Simply forbidding entry of people from other countries from Feb 1 would have made India a Corona free much earlier. Why should native Indians suffer due to someone bringing it from abroad? Why can’t they stay put wherever they went?

  118. Look at Italy and Spain today please before rejecting the hypothesis. Forewarned is forearmed.
    Just try to search state of PPE ( personal protection equipment) for health workers in India today. It will open your eyes to a 19th century heartless approach.

  119. If you think it is alarming, you should be alarmed. If you feel scared, well you should be… I can see “if I close the eyes, world will be dark” attitude and i understand how we Indians are protected and conditioned by every previous generation. So of course we never had a bad news and now even if it’s standing at the front door we just want to not believe it… But instead of blaming the author please be scared. That’s how you can save yourself, near and dear. Train yourself to be in isolation because it’s gonna be a long time. You’re just required to follow some basic guidelines, it’s not that hard.

    • Being scared is not the right way to fight this situation. We have to be brave enough to understand that this could be fought by taking right measures. Being scared will only cause economic downside and civil unrest and violence. BE A RESPONSIBLE PERSON OF THE WORLD

  120. The trends are dynamic , so case fatality rate will be much higher than quoted in this article..when testing facility will be extended , the no of positive cases will increase exponentially…

  121. As usual the author is one of the persons, people should be aware of and should avoid like poison ivy. These are the type of people, who in overenthusiasm are deliberately trying to create the panic which all in authority and in right senses are trying to avoid. Did the author ever try to think a few facts? First the fatalities are purely on co-morbid patients and that too in advance stages, if the respective families take care of them, it would drastically go down to South Korea level, and that would totally spoil the projections of the author. Second, and this surprises me, there are not much cases and fatalities (touch wood) in the BPL sections and one can’t claim absence of secondary exposure – to maid servants, cooks, valets,….

    • There are multiple reports which has stated that even healthy people are at risk. WHO has also confirmed this. This is a good article emphasizing on the lack of basic infrastructure with respect to health care. And these are confirmed statistics on the availability of hospital beds etc. please dont compare india’s preparation to South Korea’s. Makes a good laugh!!!!

  122. I request Print to share such articles with health Minisry rather than readers of news papers and Web streams. It would be to share ground real reports. Withdraw this asap Gupta sir

  123. Now i just come here for fun because everything doesn’t make sense to anyone. If you are so much better with statistics, you should apply for US Visa because even they can’t predict.

    What about your prediction about China then? 1-2 million deaths? 10 million affected?? Isn’t it so easy to say anything?

    Why don’t you write articles on praising PM Modi for being the best PM till date.

  124. This is what I would call a totally unnecessary article. Has anyone known coronavirus before, does anyone know FOR SURE how it behaves under different temperatures, does anyone know for sure the TEMPERATURE GRAPH in coming two months? Just to extrapolate some graphs, that too the ones which are NOT BASED on any MATHEMATICAL EQUATIONS which give absolute precise numbers, but are based on the VAGUEST of all sciences called STATISTICS, is something that should not be tried at this juncture. This is plain and simple CREATING FRIGHT in people’s minds.

  125. I would implore you not to use numbers from anyone who isn’t an epidemiologist. How is what a “software entrepreneur” thinks about a spread relevant? Even if the numbers somehow turn out to ne correct they are not trained! Their are many, many trained Indian public health professionals, and the media can try a bit harder, I am sure, to find them

  126. Alarmist article.India will manage to halt its spread .I do not agree with the author regarding so many deaths.The figures of next one week will show where we are heading.

    • What makes you think India will manage?
      You could not manage a surprise tactical strike.
      It brought Italy down to its knee’s. what makes India special?
      Italy a so called developed nation.

      • After I read this article, I was wondering how to react to this news. Your brand is “the print” but you are a digital platform.

        Author is a data journalist, not a medical expert. He’s not even a journalist. Just like ‘ The Print’ is not print but a website…
        i would say, you should be ashamed of publishing such articles. You will not be though.

        A guy working on excel sheet (and knows nothing beyond this) is writing an expert article on corona virus and The Print is publishing it…

  127. If COVID 19 does not kill, these statistics will kill. In a video by Shekar Gupta, it was stated that fatality rate is 1.6%. Now, you quote WHO to predict fatality rate of 3.4%. Make up your mind what do you wish to tell the reading public. The Print contributors are being alarmists.

      • What sort of dishonest negative journalism is this? At this critical hour,you want to blame ” Modi government”. Because you are out of reasons to blame Modi. You find new ways..
        Show how doctors are working tirelessly if you have guts. But this chennai author wants to sit at home and comment on the country.

    • Its okay, Don’t heed the warning, Look at Italy and now compare India with Italy, You will have your answer.

      1% or 3% doesn’t matter when you wont have any beds or hospitals.

      • In crisis , hospital beds are indeed in shortage and then one does not depend on hospital beds. Emergency beds are created then. Our armed forces and paramilitary forces possess expertise to create such facilities at very short notice and as a doctor I have personally experienced it.
        To avoid fear in the society,our media should avoid printing articles .Do you think govt in not aware of the grim situation. My dear ,Experts in the ministry ,who know much more then our experts in print and electronic media are working hard to contain the damage.
        Lastly we have a very proactive PM who is monitoring the situation and taking appropriate action to tide over the crisis . Have faith and hope for the best.
        We the citizens should help the authorities by isolating ourselves to prevent the disease.

      • There is a difference between heeding any warning or saying things that can cause civil unrest. Recently in Columbia, civil violence caused by panic due to corona virus caused 27 people to die in the violence.

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