Smugness and swagger have returned to the opposition camp. They think their ‘unity efforts’ have put the Bharatiya Janata Party on the defensive. When was the last time the BJP needed allies for show of strength? They were always like the overstaying, unwanted guests, welcome to leave whenever they wished. As long as they stayed, they had to behave themselves, expecting no special treatment. Tuesday, 18 July is, therefore, special for them. The BJP has invited them to a five-star hotel in the national capital on the day of the opposition jamboree in Bengaluru. Opposition leaders would have us believe that their intent to come together has the BJP worried and refurbish the National Democratic Alliance with new partners.
Post-Karnataka results, the BJP does look a bit jittery. It’s suddenly showing urgency about re-building the NDA. But it’s probably to do with the DNA of Modi-Shah’s BJP—not leaving anything to chance in the 2024 elections.
Look at some data points collated by my colleague Amogh Rohmetra to show the nature of the challenge the opposition will face in 2024. In the 2019 election, the BJP won 224 Lok Sabha seats with over 50 per cent vote share—that is, just 48 seats short of a majority. It was 88 seats more than what the BJP had won with over 50 per cent vote share in 2014 LS polls.
The party won 105 Lok Sabha seats with a margin of over 3 lakh votes—up from 42 in 2014. 164 BJP candidates won with over two lakh votes in 2019.
These figures give a sense of the scale of the BJP’s electoral domination. Most of these seats are from states where the Congress is the principal challenger: 26 in Gujarat, 23 in Rajasthan, 25 in Madhya Pradesh, 22 in Karnataka, 9 in Haryana, 6 in Chhattisgarh, 5 in Uttarakhand and 4 in Himachal, among others.
Let’s think of what winning 224 seats with over 50 per cent vote share in 2019 means for the BJP in 2024. Congress leaders argue that past performance is not an indicator of future returns. But, what makes them think that PM Modi’s popularity will plummet so drastically in the next nine-ten months that the BJP would lose seats that it had won with over 50 per cent vote share? There must be an anti-Modi wave to defeat the BJP on 105 seats that it won with over 3 lakh votes or 164 seats that it won with over two lakh votes. Nothing can be ruled out in politics but given the state of affairs today, the opposition must make a leap of faith.
Politics is, of course, not static. There have been many changes since the last Lok Sabha election. For one, the Congress is ruling Karnataka that sent elected 25 BJP MPs in 2019. In Maharashtra, the BJP and the Shiv Sena together won 41 of the 48 seats in 2019. A large chunk of the Sena under Uddhav Thackeray is in the opposition camp now. In Bihar, the NDA won 39 of the 40 seats, with the BJP winning 17 and the Janata Dal (United) 16. The JD(U) is in the opposition camp now. The NDA hasn’t made much headway in Tamil Nadu. The BJP may be feeling headwinds in other states, too. That explains the sense of urgency reflected in its decision to revitalise the NDA with new allies and go for the show of strength on 18 July. But that’s the BJP’s strength — plugging the leaks when the boat is riding high.
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Fault lines in Opposition camp
The Congress has invited two-dozen parties to Bengaluru for the 17-18 July meeting. They can be placed into two categories — those who are already its allies and those who aren’t. The first category includes 16 parties — Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (DMK), MDMK, KDMK, VCK, JD(U), Rashtriya Janata Dal, CPI, CPI(M), CPI (ML), RSP, Forward Bloc, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Indian Union Muslim League, and Kerala Congress (Joseph).
The second category includes seven parties — the Trinamool Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party, the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal, Kerala Congress (Mani), National Conference, and People’s Democratic Party. Essentially, it’s these seven whose arrival is supposed to cement Opposition unity. Look at the last two first- the two Jammu and Kashmir-based parties. One doesn’t know if the Congress has factored in the likelihood of the Supreme Court delivering a verdict on the removal of the erstwhile state’s special status under Article 370 and other changes made to it on 5 August 2019. The apex court has decided to resume its hearing from the first week of August. Given that one of the five judges on the Bench, Justice Sanjay Kishan Kaul, is set to retire on 25 December, the apex court’s ruling is likely to come before that. Whatever be the verdict, Article 370 will be back to the political centrestage in the run up to the Lok Sabha election. Would Rahul Gandhi then campaign along with Farooq Abdullahs and Mehbooba Muftis? The answer is anybody’s guess.
Look at another invitee from the second category. Behind the Congress’ invitation to Kerala Congress (Mani) — which has upset Kerala Congress (Joseph) — is its objective to bring the two splintered factions together to safeguard its Christian votebank. It may be worthwhile given the BJP’s attempts to woo Kerala Christians, but it won’t make much difference nationally.
That leaves us with four other parties in the non-ally category—TMC, AAP, SP and RLD. The last two had formed a grand alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party in 2019 and together ended up with 15 seats. The SP’s share was just 5. Now think of a possible SP-RLD-Congress alliance and throw in even Bhim Army’s Chandrasekhar. This would be no match to a formation comprising Mayawati. Besides, let’s also not forget that the BJP won 40 Lok Sabha seats in UP by over 50 per cent votes in 2019.
So, why is Sonia Gandhi so keen on dining with Akhilesh Yadav in Bengaluru? Well, it’s less about maximizing the gains and more about minimizing the loss. The SP may play spoilsport for her even in her pocket borough, Rae Bareli. But the SP needs the Congress when the Muslims are seen to be rallying around the latter — in assembly election in Karnataka (where they abandoned Deve Gowda’s party), in West Bengal’s Sagardighi assembly bypoll and in panchayat polls in Murshidabad and Malda in West Bengal. The SP’s loss in its Azamgarh and Rampur bastions and Mamata Banerjee’s loss in Sagardighi and Murshidabad/Malda suggest Muslims’ growing disillusionment with regional parties.
That has prompted Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav and others who once found the Congress a burden to return to the dining table with Sonia Gandhi. Banerjee and Yadav have even framed their terms of engagement — that they will support the Congress where it’s strong and the latter should reciprocate.
In plain English, it means that the Congress should contest the two Lok Sabha seats in Bengal, which it won in 2019, and leave the rest for the Trinamool Congress. As for reciprocity, 12 Meghalaya Congress MLAs joining the TMC ahead of elections have made it a force in the northeastern state. Post-elections, the Congress and the TMC have five MLAs each. Going by Banerjee’s definition, the Congress that won one of the two Lok Sabha seats in the state should be ready to give up claims for the second seat in the TMC’s favour. In case of Uttar Pradesh, this arrangement would mean SP’s support to the Congress in Rae Bareli, Amethi and a few other seats. For these ‘sacrifices’, the Congress should help Mamata and Akhilesh regain their grip on the Muslim votebank— at the Congress’ own cost, obviously.
As for the AAP, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal made the AAP’s participation in opposition unity meet in Bengaluru conditional to the Congress opposing the bill that would replace the Centre’s controversial ordinance on control of services in Delhi. The fact is that the NDA along with ‘friendly’ parties like the YSRCP and the BJD can get the bill through even the Rajya Sabha. Arvind Kejriwal, an IITian, wouldn’t have missed the arithmetic in the Upper House.
He would also know well that the Congress, aligned with regional parties in states, couldn’t afford not to oppose the bill. Yet, he wants the Congress to make its commitment public — as if to cock a snook at Congress leaders in Punjab and Delhi who have been vocal against alleged corruption of the AAP government and targeting of Congress leaders in Punjab by the vigilance bureau. That aside, think of what the AAP-Congress unity under the larger opposition umbrella would entail. There are 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab. The Congress holds seven of them and the AAP one. All seven seats of Delhi are with the BJP. Which of the two should vacate which state and which seat for the other? AAP insiders say that they want the Congress to give up most of its Punjab seats and split Delhi seats.
Look at the larger picture again. What does the Congress gain from this opposition unity charade? Leave existing allies aside and also assume that no other regional players such as the Biju Janata Dal from Odisha, Bharat Rashtra Samithi from Telangana, YSR Congress Party from Andhra Pradesh and Janata Dal (Secular) from Karnataka will join the opposition bandwagon. In that scenario, the opposition unity effort gets reduced to primarily three players — the TMC, the AAP, the SP. All these three have become what they’ve at the cost of the Congress. And they look to grow at the cost of the Congress or whatever is left of its votebank.
How many Lok Sabha seats would these three players spare for the Congress if they were to come together — 25-30 at the most? One is not even talking about the winning seats. And how would the Congress reciprocate? In the immediate context, by preventing Muslims’ flight from regional parties. By making these parties stakeholders in the Lok Sabha polls when they are not seen as one. It will help Banerjee, Kejriwal and Yadav if they are seen as part of an anti-BJP front at the Centre.
So, why is the Congress looking so desperate to bring them together and even infuse fresh life into aspiring national challengers such as Kejriwal and Banerjee? If there is an anti-incumbency wave against Modi, the Congress doesn’t need them — not in the pre-poll scenario, at least. And if there is no wave as such, which seems to be the case today, the best hope of the opposition would be to deny the BJP a majority on its own. It may be a scenario Rahul Gandhi would love but it won’t necessarily translate into the Congress’ revival. It may, in fact, end up revitalising regional players, the bane of the Congress.
Calls for opposition unity by a Sharad Pawar or a Nitish Kumar are understandable. At the fag end of their political career—by choice or compulsion—they want their last hurrah in 2024. Others in Bengaluru have a different plan. A prominent opposition leader told me last week that they would want the Congress to contest a maximum of 300 seats, if not 250. Guess where most of these seats would fall — the states where regional parties have little presence and where the BJP won the maximum number of seats with over 50 per cent vote share.
If Karnataka was any signal of a possible resurgence of the Congress, regional parties have more to worry — more than the BJP that almost exclusively occupies one end of the ideological spectrum. They would rather have a level-playing field at the other end through opposition unity.
Views are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)