Satellite imagery confirms Chinese disengagement at PP-15 at the LAC. Xi Jinping tells Putin there are limits to their partnership. Xi concludes his first foreign trip since Covid with the SCO summit in Uzbekistan. Tibetans cry for help as Covid restrictions keep many at home. And a new report says the rotation of Western Theatre Command military officials in 2021 wasn’t unusual, contradicting Indian analysts.
China over the week
Last week, we learned about the disengagement between the Indian Army and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at Patrolling Point 15 (PP-15), close to Gogra and Kugrang river. Now, satellite imagery published by multiple media organisations has confirmed the disengagement between troops on the ground. NDTV’s Vishnu Som reported citing MAXAR satellite imagery that the PLA base close to PP-15 has been dismantled and moved three kilometres north of the previous location.
The open-source satellite imagery accessed by me from the Copernicus Sentinel Hub database confirmed the disengagement at PP-15 reported by the NDTV and other outlets.
The disengagement has created a buffer zone in the Gogra Hot springs area, which has started a debate over whether India made a compromise by agreeing to create a buffer zone on its side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – leaving China at an advantage.
“Since the PLA had the first mover advantage, the buffer zone is entirely on our side of the LAC. While the PLA has moved to its permanent post across the Jianan Pass/PP15, in all likelihood, India has established a new post on the edge of the buffer zone between PPs 15 and 16,” wrote Lt Gen. HS Panag (retd) in The Print.
The complete disengagement of troops will be a long-drawn process and may continue to linger as PLA has enhanced its presence in Ladakh by building multiple heliports and other infrastructure to support the permanent presence of its troops.
Also read: No war no peace in PP15 but China wants more in Depsang Plains, Charding-Ninglung Nala
Meanwhile, ending months of speculation about Xi staying at home until the conclusion of the 20th Party Congress, the general secretary made his first trip abroad since the Covid pandemic started. On his state visit, Xi signalled that Central Asia is critical to China’s regional diplomacy by making his first stop in Kazakhstan.
“China highly values its relations with Kazakhstan, and firmly supports Kazakhstan in safeguarding national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and in taking reform measures to preserve national stability and development,” Xi said during talks with Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
The Chinese State media ran a tagline on social media platforms to capture Xi’s Central Asia visit that said: “Building a Beautiful Home in the Eurasian Continent”. The original idea of forging Eurasian solidarity to counter the “West-led” order was Moscow’s creation, but Beijing has cosied into promoting the idea. The Eurasian dream of new regional status might as well be a dream born in Zhongnanhai now, not Kremlin.
During his trip, Xi was accompanied by top Chinese officials Ding Xuexiang, Yang Jiechi, Wang Yi and He Lifeng. Though the visit was reported widely by the Chinese media, including in Chinese, the visit didn’t trend heavily on social media platforms. The hashtag “President Xi Jinping’s trip to Central Asia” was viewed 230 million times on Weibo, which usually gets over a billion views for important events.
From Nur-Sultan, Xi flew to Samarkand to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meet.
In his remarks at the SCO, Xi called on other members to counter “external forces from instigating colour revolutions”. ‘Colour revolutions’ is Beijing’s referred term for protest movements used by foreign countries to bring about regime change.
“We should strengthen high-level exchanges and strategic communication, deepen mutual understanding and political mutual trust, and support each other’s efforts to safeguard security and development interests. We must prevent external forces from instigating ‘colour revolutions’, jointly oppose interference in other countries’ internal affairs under any pretext, and firmly control the country’s future and destiny in our own hands,” Xi said in his speech at the 22nd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of SCO.
Xi also congratulated India on taking over as the president of SCO.
“The Chinese side congratulates India on taking over as the next rotating presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and is willing to work with all parties to support the Indian side in doing a good job of the presidency,” Xi said in his speech.
Also read: Forgotten story of great Hindu merchants in Central Asia shows enterprise can defeat China
While in Samarkand, Xi held bilateral meetings with Vladimir Putin, the most watched by international media, and other member states.
The readout of the meeting between Putin and Xi didn’t mention Ukraine or the “no-limits” partnership between China and Russia, which had appeared in previous readouts of meetings between the two leaders. Although we don’t know what exactly Xi said to Putin on Ukraine, Putin started the bilateral meeting with Xi by saying, “We understand your questions and concerns in this regard”.
Xi did indicate that Beijing was willing to work with Russia to support each other’s ‘core interests’. The body language and the remarks during the exchange between Putin and Xi suggest the relationship isn’t on a firm footing, at least for now, as Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine has experienced multiple setbacks.
Chinascope recently told you about the disruption to the lives of Tibetans because of the Covid outbreak. The situation is getting worse by the day. Tibetans are posting videos on Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, out of desperation, calling for help as the lockdown has left many living in far-flung villages without food.
Lhadon Tethong, the director of Tibet Action Institute, is surprised about the amount of information flowing out of Tibet because of the lockdown.
“I am a pregnant woman who is almost three months pregnant and came to visit relatives in early June. The original plan was to leave Lhasa and return to the mainland in mid-August. Due to the severe epidemic in Lhasa, it was delayed,” wrote a Weibo user stranded in the Tibetan capital.
Lhasa city government apologised for “insufficient preparation, insufficient capacity, insufficient response, and poor execution” in managing the Covid outbreak in Tibet. The hashtag “Lhasa city leaders apologise for the lack of epidemic prevention and control work” was viewed 120 million times on Weibo.
The food shortage is glaring.
“Due to the shortage of supplies due to the epidemic, the only source of protein for us at the most difficult time was those 5 eggs. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, I have received a total of 3 government hot dishes. A drop in the bucket for us,” wrote a Tibetan Weibo user.
Meanwhile, Toronto-based Citizen Lab has published a new report about China collecting DNA samples of Tibetans since 2016.
“Our research demonstrates that since June 2016, police in the Tibet Autonomous Region have engaged in a mass DNA collection program targeting men, women, and children across the region. Mass DNA collection appears unconnected to any ongoing criminal investigation. Instead, our research suggests that mass DNA collection is a form of social control directed against the Tibetan people,” wrote Emile Dirks in his report.
Also read: LAC disengagement a bargain Xi had to bite at. But Chinese media isn’t telling people that
China in world news
Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei has inspired swarms of officials from the US and the EU to support Taiwan. José Casimiro Morgado, director of the European Union Intelligence and Situation Centre (EUINTCEN), was supposed to travel to Taiwan but had to cancel the visit after his “top-secret preparations” were leaked to Beijing, according to Politico.
Following the leak, Beijing pressured the EU to cancel what would have been an unusually sensitive visit.
An EU official contradicted Politico’s story by saying Morgado was planning to hold meetings with Taiwanese officials over the phone. Regardless, the leak from the EU reveals the extent of Beijing’s presence at the top echelon of European politics.
And a new report sheds light on the PLA military leadership.
Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow at the National Defence University, who is known for his work on the PLA, has published a new report analysing the biographies of 300 senior PLA officers. The report titled Gray Dragons: Assessing China’s Senior Military Leadership says there is a parallel between China and Russia when it comes to the type of officers who are being promoted.
“When you go through the data and analyze who China is promoting up to [senior] levels, you start to see some parallels” with “the generals who were faulted for giving [Russian President Vladimir] Putin apparently pretty bad military advice,” Wuthnow told South China Morning Post in an interview.
In the report, Wuthnow argues that the sudden rotation of the PLA officers in the Western Theatre Command during 2021 doesn’t indicate Xi is dissatisfied with the theatre command, something many Indian analysts had argued.
“However, comparative data indicate that the pattern was not atypical. Of the five theatre commands, both the Western and Central TCs had four commanders between 2016 and 2022, while two others had three, and one had two. Four officers in 6 years are also not out of step with the tendency of TC leader grade officers to rotate, on average, five times in the previous ten years,” Wuthnow writes in his report.
Also read: Xi Jinping, Putin congratulates India on SCO presidency next year, extend full support
Must read this week
Why Xi Jinping Chose Central Asia for His First Post-COVID-19 Trip — Raffaello Pantucci
A China-US Cold War Draws Near — Jia Qingguo
The Wrong Way to View the Xi-Putin Meeting — Evan Feigenbaum
Experts this week
“Achieving the ‘Asian Century’ by no means that China cannot fight back in the face of India’s continuous push in border areas and encroachment on China’s territory. Judging from the series of negotiations on the disengagement of the Chinese and Indian armies in the border area since the Galwan conflict, China has great sincerity in resolving border disputes through peaceful negotiations,” said Liu Zongyi, Secretary General, Center for China and South Asia Studies, Shanghai Institute for International Studies, in an interview with Guancha. Liu’s interview was read over 196,031 times on Guancha’s website.
The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist, currently pursuing an MSc in international politics with focus on China from School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. He was previously a China media journalist at the BBC World Service. He tweets @aadilbrar. Views are personal.