Has the Karnataka assembly election results made things look bright for the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha election? Will Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar try to bring West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and Telangana CM K Chandrashekhar Rao, who are critics of the Congress, into Rahul Gandhi’s fold?
While voters seemed to have hailed the Congress, the election was closely contested as the median victory margin was 9 per cent of the total votes polled, according to Hindustan Times. What does it mean? There’s no major ‘Congress wave’ in the state.
If you consider caste and religion factors, there has been no ‘pro-Congress’ shift in the narrative. The Lingayats, which enabled the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to make inroads into the state, voted for the Congress because of BS Yediyurappa’s poor campaigning. The Congress ate away from the Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S)’s voter base of Vokkaligas, who were Gowda family loyalists for decades. Muslim voters, too, walked out of the JD(S) and tilted in favour of the Congress.
Also read: Karnataka election 2023 — eight lessons for the BJP, Congress, and all of India
The other side of the coin
The Karnataka assembly election doesn’t signal any weakening of the BJP on the national level. Look at what happened in UP on the same day — Yogi Adityanath virtually solidified a “third engine” sarkar in the state after winning all 17 mayoral seats in the urban local body election. The CM’s “Mitti me mila denge (reduce to dust)” remark, which he made in February against the mafia culture in the state, became wildly popular and swept popular opinion in his favour.
The municipal election results showcase the strength of the BJP in UP, the state with the maximum representation in Lok Sabha elections. Yogi still stands tall.
As of now, the Samajwadi Party appears to be the only formidable opposition to the BJP in UP. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has clearly weakened—no doubt about it. It can be argued that the irrelevance of the BSP only helps the BJP more. The Congress, of course, has a long and hard battle ahead in UP.
In short, UP continues to be BJP’s turf. The Congress has little support to boast of — from civic polls to bypolls. BJP’s ally Apna Dal (S) emerged victorious in Rampur’s Suar assembly seat on 13 May.
Also read: BJP replaced Yediyurappa with Bommai but he wasn’t the bold, hands-on leader they needed
Internal cracks within the Congress
Coming to the nitty-gritty of the situation, a stalemate is dangerous to any government. There is no road-roller majority for the Congress in Karnataka. Such a verdict always opens doors for another Operation Lotus — not by BJP, though, but within, from the Congress itself. Leaders who toiled for the Congress’ victory in Karnataka are not rewarded. One thinks of Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan. Seeing how the party is grappling with internal cracks, can the Congress forge an alliance against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2024?
Will Congress leaders now demand to make Priyanka Gandhi Vadra party president? She won Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka over. More than Rahul Gandhi, it is Priyanka who ran a high-octane campaign and is being hailed in Karnataka. Where is party president Mallikarjun Kharge, who too toiled in Karnataka, his home turf, but is now eclipsed? Suddenly Hanuman has become a favourite god in Karnataka and in the North. Even Priyanka was offering prayers at the Jakhu Hanuman Temple in Shimla when the results were announced.
Moreover, anti-incumbency is just an innate nature of Karnataka politics, not unique to Congress’ victory this time. Since 1985, no incumbent government has returned to power in the state. While celebrations may have erupted at the Congress office in Bengaluru, the defeat for the BJP is a blessing in disguise — the party will do well in the 2024 General election.
Also read: Karnataka shows no magic needed to defeat BJP in 2024. Answer is ‘ridiculously simple’
Why Karnataka defeat helps BJP
Look at the situation around Karnataka. On both sides of the state, the BJP wields twin advantages.
First, in Maharashtra, where some friction exists between Nationalist Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, while the Eknath Shinde-led BJP alliance is enjoying political clout.
The second advantage comes from the adjacent state of Tamil Nadu. MK Stalin’s freebies, which he calls welfare schemes on health and education, have proved to be difficult to implement, as the state government is dealing with a fiscal crisis. In March 2023, the CM said that the state could not pay Rs 1,000 per month to women heads of households — which the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) promised in its manifesto — due to a lack of funds.
Back in Karnataka, the Lingayats and Vokkaligas have varying interests. The Congress will have to ensure a balance in representing these two groups along with Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Muslims. Such a complex political game can put the party in a fix, just a year before the next General election.
Potential rifts among voters will work in BJP’s favour. Along with his Hindutva plank, PM Modi will be able to woo voters with the ‘Sabka Vikas’ model, which will not only counter the freebie syndrome but also dominate politics all over again.
The author tweets @RAJAGOPALAN1951. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)