Right in the midst of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Bharatiya Janata Party appears to have gotten into an embarrassing situation in Haryana. Three independent members of the 90-member House — Somveer Sangwan, Randhir Golan, and Dharam Pal Gonder — have withdrawn their support to the BJP government headed by Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini. Closely following the exit of these members, BJP’s former alliance partner, the 10-member Jannayak Janta Party led by Dushyant Chautala, has offered to extend its support to the Congress if it decides to topple the current government.
It is unlikely that the Congress will make any move to topple the BJP government, as it is not easy. In a 90 member-House, the BJP needs 45 members to establish its strength. But with 88 members, after the resignations of two members who are Lok Sabha candidates, the BJP needs 44 members. If it manages to disqualify the three JJP members on whom the party has served notice for “anti-party activities”, the effective strength of the House would be 85 and the majority mark will be 43, which the BJP claims to have. But in reality, even if the Congress does not immediately topple the government, its capacity to keep the Saini government on its toes and tied down to managing the arithmetic in the House is immense and enough to dent the image of the BJP.
Two headaches for BJP
The CM who replaced veteran BJP leader Manohar Lal Khattar in March 2024, who is contesting for Lok Sabha from Karnal, is confident of his government completing full term. Although there is no immediate danger to his ministry — the government need not face a majority test as a no-confidence motion in March was defeated and another one cannot be moved for six months — the BJP government does not look comfortable. More importantly, the immediate fallout of these resignations will be reflected in the voting for 10 Lok Sabha seats to be held in the sixth phase of voting on 25 May.
With no chance of a no-confidence motion against the government and no need to prove its majority, the CM is right to dismiss talks of his government being in danger. But the BJP has two major headaches to address. One is the ongoing Lok Sabha election, and the other worry is to prepare the party for the state assembly elections likely to be held in October this year.
As of now, the BJP is confident of retaining all the 10 seats it had won in 2019. The party polled 58.21 per cent votes against the Congress, which ended up polling 28.51 per cent votes. All other parties had single-digit vote percentages and no seats. While the BJP appears to be united in its fight and not allow local-level dissidents to assume larger proportions, the Congress seems to be divided into different camps. Veteran Congress leader and former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda is believed to have influenced the top leadership in deciding the candidates, as his clout in the state, especially among the Jat community, is strong enough to swing the votes in favour of the party. He also has to ensure the third generation of his family’s leadership in the state by promoting his son Deepender Singh Hooda as the leader of the party. Congress’ emphasis on consolidating the Jat votes might end up helping the BJP to mop up the non-Jat votes, as the campaign would veer toward a Jat versus non-Jat election.
Also read: Lok Sabha elections: Sonia, Rahul, Kharge, among 40 star campaigners for Congress in Haryana
BJP’s image could still suffer
Khattar was asked to vacate his seat in favour of Saini, who was sitting MP from Kurukshetra and considered popular enough to mop up Dalit and OBC votes, which add up to about 44 per cent. To strengthen its voter base, the BJP roped in former Congress state unit president Ashok Tanwar in January 2024. Tanwar had floated his own party, spent time in the Trinamool Congress (TMC) for a brief period, and then shifted to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Though a party hopper, he is believed to have kept his hold over the nearly 20 per cent Dalit vote bank in Haryana.
Despite all these vote bank calculations, the BJP’s image could still suffer a dent if it is unable to win all the 10 seats it won in 2019. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image is working to the party’s advantage and Khattar is seen as a non-corrupt and efficient administrator, these factors alone may not be enough to nullify the effect of caste combination in elections. Any setback in the Lok Sabha results will impact the coming assembly elections, and that is one reason why the BJP would like to win all 10 seats again this time. Yet, this victory alone may not guarantee an end to BJP’s troubles in Haryana.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)