Five reasons why the opposition’s calculations have gone horribly wrong with the no-confidence motion.
The opposition has just shot itself in the foot with the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. What’s worse, India’s leading opposition party, the Congress has fallen prey to the gimmick of YSR Congress and the TDP.
During the Budget session, the YSR Congress and the TDP, disrupted the house every day on the demand of a special status for Andhra Pradesh. When the demand came up again from the TDP this session, the Congress supported it and readied to move a motion to corner the government. To their utter surprise, the Lok Sabha Speaker accepted the motion brought by the TDP.
Even if the Congress raises important national issues during the televised parliament debate, here are five reasons why the calculation has gone horribly wrong for the opposition.
1. A no-confidence motion at the beginning of the session is an immature idea. The debate would be over when Modi’s speech is followed by voting. Congress is planning to raise issues like lynching, unemployment, farmer issues, women’s security, and bank fraud. It hopes to corner the government on all issues making the headlines. Once the vote is over Friday, it will have nothing to protest and debate on Monday. The government will claim that all the concerned issues have been discussed in the Lok Sabha and now the opposition has no right to disrupt and let the parliament function.
2. The current strength of the Lok Sabha is 534 minus the Speaker. To defeat the no-confidence motion, the government needs 268 votes. Currently, the BJP itself has 273 MPs excluding the speaker. In all probability, the government will win the vote. Congress leaders say that if some of the BJP MPs vote against the government, it will be embarrassing for Modi and the BJP. But that is unlikely to happen, going by the recent statements of even those MPs who raised their voice against the party in the recent times. Another possibility is that the opposition could walk out before voting. But it wouldn’t help in proving any point as they have been doing this a number of times.
3. The idea that the opposition will attack the government and score a point over several issues, is also far-fetched. There is not a single good, impactful orator who can compare with the number of eloquent BJP MPs. The experience of the last few debates in the parliament suggests that even on issues like farmers suicide, the government performed better.
4. There couldn’t have been any better launch pad for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to start his election campaign for 2019 than the no-confidence motion. He has done a few rallies in UP, West Bengal and other places in recent weeks. But now he will have a chance to speak to the nation about four years of his government from a forum as important as the Lok Sabha, thanks to the opposition led by Congress. He will take this opportunity to play the victim card terming it a ‘Modi Hatao‘ programme by the opposition. At the same time, he would tear into them and point out the holes in the proposed alliance.
5. Rahul Gandhi will also speak tomorrow. This will make the debate another Rahul vs Modi contest. Considering Modi is a much better orator, the Congress’ effort to bring Rahul in the limelight might again fail.