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A no-confidence motion is the best time for Narendra Modi to raise his 2019 campaign pitch

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Five reasons why the opposition’s calculations have gone horribly wrong with the no-confidence motion.

The opposition has just shot itself in the foot with the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. What’s worse, India’s leading opposition party, the Congress has fallen prey to the gimmick of YSR Congress and the TDP.

During the Budget session, the YSR Congress and the TDP, disrupted the house every day on the demand of a special status for Andhra Pradesh. When the demand came up again from the TDP this session, the Congress supported it and readied to move a motion to corner the government. To their utter surprise, the Lok Sabha Speaker accepted the motion brought by the TDP.

Even if the Congress raises important national issues during the televised parliament debate, here are five reasons why the calculation has gone horribly wrong for the opposition.

1. A no-confidence motion at the beginning of the session is an immature idea. The debate would be over when Modi’s speech is followed by voting. Congress is planning to raise issues like lynching, unemployment, farmer issues, women’s security, and bank fraud. It hopes to corner the government on all issues making the headlines. Once the vote is over Friday, it will have nothing to protest and debate on Monday. The government will claim that all the concerned issues have been discussed in the Lok Sabha and now the opposition has no right to disrupt and let the parliament function.

2. The current strength of the Lok Sabha is 534 minus the Speaker. To defeat the no-confidence motion, the government needs 268 votes. Currently, the BJP itself has 273 MPs excluding the speaker. In all probability, the government will win the vote. Congress leaders say that if some of the BJP MPs vote against the government, it will be embarrassing for Modi and the BJP. But that is unlikely to happen, going by the recent statements of even those MPs who raised their voice against the party in the recent times. Another possibility is that the opposition could walk out before voting. But it wouldn’t help in proving any point as they have been doing this a number of times.

3. The idea that the opposition will attack the government and score a point over several issues, is also far-fetched. There is not a single good, impactful orator who can compare with the number of eloquent BJP MPs. The experience of the last few debates in the parliament suggests that even on issues like farmers suicide, the government performed better.

4. There couldn’t have been any better launch pad for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to start his election campaign for 2019 than the no-confidence motion. He has done a few rallies in UP, West Bengal and other places in recent weeks. But now he will have a chance to speak to the nation about four years of his government from a forum as important as the Lok Sabha, thanks to the opposition led by Congress. He will take this opportunity to play the victim card terming it a ‘Modi Hatao‘ programme by the opposition. At the same time, he would tear into them and point out the holes in the proposed alliance.

5. Rahul Gandhi will also speak tomorrow. This will make the debate another Rahul vs Modi contest. Considering Modi is a much better orator, the Congress’ effort to bring Rahul in the limelight might again fail.

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  1. Prof PK Sharma,Freelance Journalist,Barnala(Punjab)
    Mr.Kumar Anshuman’s analytical study pertaining to No Confidence Motion’s timing, its subsequent output is based more or less on conservative – worn out yardsticks and criterias ! The opinion suffers from an element of subjectivity as well as coloured views regarding the development in question !
    In the present day Indian Politics, nothing can be ruled out as there is nothing hard and fast ! In such type of politics ” right ” and “wrong” indeed turn out to be relative terms ! It is always prudent and safe to keep one’s fingers crossed ! It may spring any pleasant
    and unexpected surprise ! To substantiate my view point, formation of Congress-Janata Dal( Secular) coalition government led by
    Mr.HD Kumaraswamy in Karnataka, drubbing of BJP in Gorakhpur,Phoolpur and Kairana Lok Sabha by polls in Uttar Pradesh are
    startling examples and realities in this context !
    Could any one fancy Kumaraswamy to be the Chief Minister of Karnataka with just thirty seven seats in his bag ! UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and his deputy Keshav P. Maurya even while in power with brute majority in the assembly awfully failed to keep in tact their respective bastions !
    Ironically, how will PM Modi exploit this no confidence motion episode to his and BJP’s advantage ? His gift of eloquence, oratory and rhetorics so far stand very badly exposed !
    How will NaMo paint demonetisation in bright colours ? Will he claim that people standing in long queues were taking cudgels against insurgency and trans border terrorism in Kashmir ? How will he assert that no one lost his/her life while grappling with the uncertain and uncalled for hardships for getting cash ? Will he be able to boast that he offered petrol and diesel at throw away prices to the public in wake of crude oil avaiable in the international market at the cheapest rates for almost past four years ?
    How will he justify withdrawing support to PDP-BJP Combine J&K Government after BJP enjoying power for more than three years ? There are a lot more lies and ploys he will have to account for, may be then inviting more trouble in the bargain caught on the wrong foot !
    It is a writing on the wall, if Opposition does not allow its votes- vote bank to split in 2019 unlike 2014 Lok Sabha Polls, the invincible
    duo of “NaMo- Amit Shah” is certain to bite dust in the 2019 Lok Sabha Polls ! It now depends a lot on the grand opposition alliance to make these two to eat a humble pie at the time of hustings ! Nothing can be taken for granted here because every thing is in the lap of time !

    Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist
    Pom Anm Nest,Barnala(Punjab)

  2. It will worth watching Rahul Gandhi speaking. He had told that if he allowed to speak for 15 minutes in parliament, there will be tremors. I doubt if he will speak as he has no capability to speak coherently on any subject without reading from a prepared text.

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