Just how successful has the lockdown been? Just how bad would the situation have been if it wasn’t this total?
How can you take a chance in a country of 138 crore, mostly poor, people? Didn’t the prime minister say, “jaan hai toh jahan hai”? Jaan toh hai. We have the lowest per million fatality rate from coronavirus for any major country. Therefore, thank your chosen God — so far, so good. And get back indoors. Really?
We are managing to stay alive, but our livelihoods are in deep freeze. For far too many fellow Indians, these won’t return any time soon. Tens of crores who’ve been lifted out of poverty post-1991 are half-a-wheezing-breath away from slipping back there. We are alive, of course, but remember the famous words of Amitabh Bachchan in the 1979 hit Mr Natwarlal, “yeh jeena bhi koi jeena hai lallu?”
Or let me set the Hindi cinema calendar back five decades instead, and offer you a more prosaic description, if with the help of fine poetry.
Late Gopaldas Neeraj (1925-2018) is remembered mostly as a poet of deep melancholia. Never mind that he also wrote some of the most lifting romantic lines that transcend generations, including Likhe jo khat tujhe (for Shashi Kapoor, Kanyadaan, 1968) and Phoolon ke rang se (Dev Anand, Prem Pujari, 1970).
But his imprimatur for poetic immortality comes from his saddest: Karwan guzar gaya, gubar dekhte rahe… (the caravan passed me by and I was left staring at the dust-clouds in its wake). Sung by Mohammed Rafi and composed by Roshan in the 1966 Tanuja-starrer Nai Umar Ki Nai Fasal, it was the ultimate song of self-pity for the jilted, defeated lover.
It was so sad that it lent itself naturally to becoming the most parodied song of our early school years. The refrain, in the publishable parody version, changed to: Mar gaya mareez, hum bukhar dekhte rahe (all I did was keep checking the temperature, but the patient died).
I understand the connection between fever-checking and coronavirus and the risk of being accused of trivialising a once-in-a-century tragedy. But continuing on, unthinkingly, with more or less the same lockdown amounts to exactly this. If the virus won’t kill us, joblessness, hunger, desolation, depression, and loss of self-esteem will. Quarantine shouldn’t become a death-bed.
Also read: Coronavirus has brought India’s almighty Centre back, and Modi’s unlikely to give up control
As the government’s latest decisions — two-week lockdown extension and very selective opening up in most of our colour-coded country — show, this is not about to change soon. That absolute power corrupts absolutely is old hat. Check out the history of any state or establishment. Absolute power can also intoxicate you absolutely.
That is why the central government is now micromanaging not just the affairs of all the states, but also the day-to-day lives of us individuals. Added with such total power over people, you can only expect many bureaucrats to start behaving like mini Robert Mugabes. Check out Haryana. A senior cop announced on camera the district’s borders are closed for everyone, including journalists (never mind) and doctors. Hello, the state has proudly built something called the Medicity where several large hospitals function. Hundreds of patients, doctors and paramedics commute here from Delhi.
It is one thing that a state is nutty enough to be locking up a district with pretensions to being India’s third Silicon Valley. But it is also a zone both Delhi and Rajasthan need for transit. You think this is absurd enough as an example of absolute power driving the establishment nuts? Read this story by ThePrint reporter Jyoti Yadav on how the state is digging up decent roads on the borders to keep the coronavirus in Delhi. Good idea, digging a moat, just in case it comes riding a T-72 tank.
India may not have the cash or the fiscal headroom to print money — unlike the US, blessed with the world’s reserve currency — to spend its way out of a crisis. But it has an Army, Navy and Air Force, to shore up your spirits as we will see soon. Flypasts, bands, even helicopters dropping flowers over hospitals treating coronavirus patients are cute ideas for an Akshay Kumar film. But when lakhs of workers at the lowest rung of the employment ladder would still be walking back home, this is the true 2020 equivalent of ‘let them eat cake’.
What they need, on the other hand, is a more purposeful reopening and a reassurance that their jobs are not only not going away, but resuming soon, and they are needed. Flypasts as if to celebrate this mass exodus are, I am afraid, an obscenity.
Also read: Why India may not see the kind of Covid-19 outbreak rest of the world has seen
During the Vietnam war, the press corps had given the daily US military briefings a name: Five O’Clock Follies. Such a thing happens when an establishment begins to see its people as infants. Watch the daily Ministry of Health briefings in New Delhi, supposedly giving an overview of the Covid-19 situation in the country.
These are so anodyne, so monotonous and so shy of taking any questions, that you could pretty much name these Four O’Clock Follies. Just the numbers of cases and deaths, how much better we are doing than the rest of the world, day after day after day after day. Out of sheer exasperation at the lack of information, I even landed up at one of these the other day, attending a PIB briefing after a couple of decades, if not longer.
I did ask a question too: “Of all the active cases now, how many are on ventilator?” The lone scientist/doctor there didn’t answer this, a civil servant did. Something like, the percentage of people in serious condition is routinely stated by ICMR/health authorities. Or something to that effect. No follow up, no nothing. Just a restatement of the familiar old bureaucratic tactics: “I won’t ever lie to you. But if you ask me my name, I shall give you my date of birth.”
Three months after the first Covid-19 case was reported in India, we need more than a daily scoreboard. That can be simply tweeted by someone at a fixed time in a day. Nor do we deserve daily instructions, dos and don’ts, and then clarifications. One has already landed (on liquor sale) even as this is being written, confirming the truism: Never believe anything from this government until it’s been clarified.
We need to see the road ahead, a road to some kind of normalcy. Or, we will end up a nation of beggars, waiting for sarkari orders and maai–baap handouts for survival. We are getting deluded by how inspirationally compliant Indians are with this unthinking, one-size-fits-all lockdown that would do Tughlaq proud.
The reason we are so compliant is that we are so fearful. Fear, fatalism and self-pity are all viruses more infectious than coronavirus, more destructive and also addictive. This nation of 138 crore people, hailed globally for being so aspirational and entrepreneurial, is now sitting in the trenches, grateful it is still not dead.
We know that there is a valid concept of putting a grievously ill patient under medically induced coma, to allow the body to recover. But you need to lift it as early as possible. If you let her go on in coma, and pat your own back each time you check the temperature, you risk falling into the syndrome we parodied poet Neeraj about: Kept checking for fever while the patient died.
Also read: Covid hasn’t gone viral in India yet, but some in the world & at home can’t accept the truth
Truth is start naked & bitter you have hit the nail as usual, its not a criticism but a constructive appeal asking the dispensation to dispense but the bukths will not accept be it so they never will. We have seen aircrafts flying next may be submarine submerge/diving. Im waiting to hear -because of Nehru virus corona is still active. May journalists tribe like you & the media with spine survive. For we the masses to hope against hope.
Kidney has a very special place in the heart . It is an incredible thing . Donald Trump .
Your knowledge surpasses that of Trump , Shekhar ! God be with you .
There are many negative responses to this article.
However, few really understand the cost of this action.
Here is one example, IT workers need public transit to get to work.
Due to lock down the cannot get to work and they are not setup to work from home.
This means the systems they support overseas has to find alternatives to these workers.
Now western fear porn is stating world can have second cycle in fall 2020 thru winter 2012.
So western companies are thinking “should I on-shore some of this IT”.
The longer the lock down the more likely this will happen.
A Bull in a china shop knows only how to break the chin in the store.
India has done amazingly well in this crisis.Be proud of your people and of your government.look at the UK deaths in excess of 26000 with a first class health service accessible to all for no costs. Imagine the effects of no lockdown and how deaths would have spread like wildfire. Be grateful you and your loved ones are alive through this crisis.India is not Sweden and Sweden did not come through unscathed. Learn gratitude.
You have correctly identified issues. It is about both about capability (to generate new ideas, listen to voices of experts, plan, execute & delegate things) and willingness (desire to address people’s issues). This has been the story of India for last six years. It all goes to point out that this govt is clueless both about real issues of majority of people and economy.
Pandemic is shining bright light on all things but this govt has already worked on transferring responsibility to landlords not to take rent, corporations to provide salary to staff, states to take care migrants without any support from center. And to top it all off PM Modi’s govt is attempting to shirk its responsibility and insulate itself by asking villages and districts to be self-sufficient during the time of pandemic instead of assuring and providing support.
even for sg this is a shit article and is quite shoddily written even after giving it the benefit of the doubt and reading it as dispassionately as possible. Like most journalists – hack or otherwise – from time to time he waffles on by glibly stating the obvious without really making any compelling points with iron clad substance behind them. One suspects if the lockdown was completely lifted he would still get his knives and pitchforks out to claim that the govt was ill advised and irresponsible, much to the approval of the partisan Lelib brigade and their adherents who seem to perennially have it in for Modi regardless of what he does, when the infections inevitably end up multiplying.
Ya ,my dear friend but remember this method of containing such epidemics was started and perfected by what is now called the Kerala model by the intelligent Health Minister of Kerala Mrs. Srimathi.
This is the only way out
Had people properly adhered to it . We would have been out of danger, but no, some wanted to go home, some were desperate to roam about, just look at the Koyembedu incident and the infection keeps rising . And then every Tom Dick and Harry for each and everything instead of self introspecting.
India has to be responsible including the intelligensia.
You’re just another pessimistic fellow who loves criticising the current government. And your article was so uninteresting and boring that I just left mid way. One of the worst articles without a proper head or tail.
Our so called patrakars think they have all the knowledge. They only know to critise.If they are so talented why they do not become the Prime Minister.They are arm chair people.I challenge them to become a leader and do better than Modi.Lastly What Modi is doing is with all the states ministers conference.
There are many negative responses to this article.
However, few really understand the cost of this action.
Here is one example, IT workers need public transit to get to work.
Due to lock down the cannot get to work and they are not setup to work from home.
This means the systems they support overseas has to find alternatives to these workers.
Now western fear porn is stating world can have second cycle in fall 2020 thru winter 2012.
So western companies are thinking “should I on-shore some of this IT”.
The longer the lock down the more likely this will happen.
Thank God you are not our prime minister.
Mostly agree with him. We donot seem to have an exit plan, nit visible if exists. Micromanagement wont do now. Let states plan their strategies and let centre support states. There are so many chief ministers and they can learn from each other and we can move forward.
Isn’t that happening now? All containment zones, etc with state govts? You should read less of this pamphlet site called the Print to get all the news you can use.
As I was going through the article I was wondering, who can be such insane and spew so much hatred, n then I saw the name…. No wonder, another LIBRANDU ….Shekar Gupta.
Well said, Mr Sekhar Gupta. You have said what needs to be said. Lockdown must go lock, stock and barrel. It will do more harm than Corana. Life without livelihood will be an unmitigated catastrophe, which will entail untold misery on all sections of the Society except the rich -politicians, cinema actors, religious leaders, industrialists and business tycoons. Will the GoI listen? I doubt. There is lot of saddest thoughts that pervade the policy planners in the present dispensation. Unfortunate. Unlike the US, where the election is round the corner, we have four long years – and by the time most of us would have been dead – and our progeny will take the toll.
a k pattabiraman, Chennai
Mr Sekher Gupta is right in criticizing another fifteen days of lockdown of India and dividing the vast country into color coded zones. It is understood that lockdown cannot go on indefinitely and Corona will not go away after two additional weeks of lockdown. Though we have seen a reduction in number of new cases, very unlikely this number will go to single digit in next two weeks. But government has to make decisions. It has chosen life over livelihood. Given our large population, crowded cities, over crowded public transport system and poor concept of social distancing, if the number of cases shot up, it will be Mr Gupta who will write another scathing column advocating virtues of saving life over making money. It is understood Corona induced fatality is low, say 5%, and around 15% may need hospitalization. In an open unfettered situation this number could be 150million hospitalized and 50 million dead. By the way, those affected will be mostly poor people because they would not be able to afford private hospitals. Can our system cope with the avalanche? Advanced countries with stronger Healthcare infrastructure could not. It is easy to write. It is difficult to decide. Sekher Gupta has his readers to account for, government has its voters as well as critics to carry along. One must decide what one would have chosen in the identical situation.
yes india should have removed the lockdown. the corona virus got so scared of the lockdown that it is now seeking shelter in either venus or jupiter.
the metro trains, buses,taxis etc can continue and people can continue being normal. we can over crowd at malls, liquor shops, pan shops, theatres etc. we can continue our spitting habits. in short we can continue with life as if nothing has happened.
and then you can be rest assured that this virus will come back with vengeance and it will be a real disaster.
and the same mr.shekar gupta will write another article criticising the govt. for removing the lockdown!!!
therefore it is better to leave the decision to the govt. at this time because this decision is not taken by mr.modi alone. all the chief ministers seem to agree with the decision.
if we have any good suggestions let us pass it on to the govt. and leave it at that.
in the meantime, as mr.shekar gupta suggested we can continue to be cricket experts.
can mr.gupta in his next article discuss about whether dhoni should retire or not?
No ..MODI has perfectly judged and having a vision about his problem. Which none of the leaders politicians and scribes are having….
He is real leader with vision and like any other leaders like Abham lincoln, Lenin, all top category leaders….
We people started to think now like elementary school children..He is at par with vivekananda swamy
40000 people die in India everyday. At present 100 odd people die of carona every day. For reducing the 100 people who die of carona we are willing to sacrifice the dignity of 80 crore people who are pushed into poverty due lockdown and cannot even beg in the street. Nobody is willing to shed a tear for 40000 people who die everyday but willing to destroy the economy completely for 100 people who die of corona everyday.
In a bid to save the economy, only fear is that we don’t become a case study that is worst than the Marseilles Case Study…..
IN A BID TO SAVE THE ECONOMY LET A SIZEABLE POPULATION PERISH
What bakwaas narrative.. Couldn’t bear to read more than 3 paragraphs.
The fall out of lockdown on account of Covid 19 is that the bureaucracy and the police have become all too powerful. Now they are telling us what to do and what not to do. They will also shortly tell us what eat, when to go to the loo, when to sleep. They are like beasts which have tasted blood. The power now given cannot be taken back so easily.
Shekhar isn’t it time to rethink political ideology of letting INDIA being the most populated nation on EARTH. Isn’t it a FACT that congrass supported media and beauracracy wanted poverty to exist to remain in power and be CORRUPT. Why are You unable to say POPULATION must be controlled through law and strict implementation and any opposition to be treated as illegall . Ofcourse with legal safeguards . The population explosion pandemic is worst than covid19.
Shekhar must stop Modi bashing – his favorite pastime to remain relevant. PUBLIC Health is State subject. So, the State governments can either follow the “Guidelines” or reject them. He is questioning the Chief Ministers of the Congress Party as to why they are not rejecting the guidelines and reviving the economy. In Karnataka, liquor shops are getting opened; but not in Punjab? Why? Shekhar may like to ask Amarinder
Benjamin Franklin said “Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety” . Did we get “अच्छे दिन” (Acche Din) in last six years even before pandemic.? Benjamin Franklin also said “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” Your analysis that currently everyone is in quarantine including govt is RIGHT ON THE DOT.
Kaun yeh Franklin wanklin? God almighty? What did god almighty say? I’m interested in that.
None are so blind ( like you ) as have eyes but don’t want to see . Our pot luck that you don’t want to declutter since your induced clutter is gargantuan !
Too late, but not surprised.
The agenda of the opposition and paid media like you was create panic in case Modi didn’t impose the lockdown.
Your puppet masters wanted the lockdown so after the lockdown they could blame Modi for the economic crash.
Then also create the narrative that the lockdown was no needed in India. Which i agree.
But why did you deskhbhakths so concerned about India didn’t speak up during the lockdown 1 so that it would not have been extended.
We all know because you would do anything to get Modi out of power even if it means destroying the nation.
This article from the very beginning shows the government’s efforts in bad light….very pessimistic view. If not shutdown/lockdown, what else could have been the solution? I don’t agree with this article.
Brilliant analysis ,I don’t think present leadership in India has the capacity to do anything better . They are by training best at divisive politics and generating hate ,that is done superbly even during this global public health emergency.
EGO
Is this ego, a prerogative of humans alone, or does it extend to entities, controlled or directed by humans ?
It appears so, since many states, countries, corporations, companies, and even small businesses, reflect the ego of the CEO, make them do things, which otherwise they were not expected to .
Take for instance the handling of the Coronavirus issue . It was handled differently by various CEOs. Some said, that it could be cured by Paracetamol, some others said that it is similar to many fevers humans are subjected to, in their life time, some others took a very serious view of the virus and tried their best to lockdown all human activity outside their homes . Which of them succeeded , and which failed is a moot point, but when a few of the states or countries took the route of lockdown, the chain of commerce inexorably broke down .
If a gold chain worn round the neck snaps at a single point, you don’t go for total replacement . You try to make a sturdy joint at the break and prolong the life of the chain . In these well distributed lockdowns, the commercial chain was snapped at so many places, that it would take stupendous effort, time, which is money, and also cash, to bring it back to the original position .
A country is run by a government alright, but is any government capable of sustaining economic growth ? It is individuals, that have the enterprising ability to make the economy flourish . Government policies do help but ultimately, it is the individual that makes or breaks a successful business . These individual efforts, are completely shattered by the mass lockdowns.
Life is sacrosanct in all religions . Whatever one was, during a life time does not matter . Life should be saved at any cost . The same life, is so fragile, and also finite, that the best brains, maximum wealth, and most critical healthcare facilities cannot save a single life . Like the saying, ‘The king is dead. Long live the king’ , activity goes on continuously, despite any death . Head of a political party dies, head of a government is killed, head of a business expires, head of a family is no more, but all connected people don’t follow . The situation could improve, in some cases, status quo ante is maintained, and, of course, in a few cases, collapse . But from the wreck, something better or more activities may arise .
Now the world, especially the developing countries have burgeoning population and the issue before these governments, is to control population . After the Covid situation, if the loss of populace is not very heavy, birth control and family planning would again come to the fore in their agendas . Is it not evident hypocrisy ?
Governments’ ability to control natural disasters is limited . Very short time measures are good and needed too . Its role should be educative, to make known the repercussions, and tell the citizens, as to how to take care of their own skins . If, there is a law and order situation, say one person going on infecting people, let the government step in to put that person behind bars, or even shoot that person down, if warranted . Even medical care need not be offered, as if Corona is a government disease and only government is authorised to deal with it . It is seen, that a health scheme, such as ESIC, where crores of Rupees are spent , is not preferred by the so called working class, and even they would flock to corporate hospitals for any serious illness . There have been instances, when an accident occures, the workers’ union insists that the victim be taken to a corporate hospital, and not to a ESI or government hospital . Creating medical facilities at huge expence, has literally failed . Arogyasri and other schemes were designed to line the pockets of corporate hospitals, rather than to give better medical care by the government hospitals . They also helped to garner votes for the political parties .
Governments should have their reins on law and order, immigration, and emigration, roads, water supply and nothing else . Electricity should be off their list . Even Customs is not needed, since the law of demand and supply, was not enunciated by governments . And the number of government departments should be pruned ruthlessly .
Gadepalli Subrahmanyam, 208, SSV Nagar, P.B.Road, Vizianagaram 535002 Mobile:9652837050 email:gsmani174@gmail. com
This guy is a idiot. He has no clue as to what he is talking about . Shame on the print.in for letting this guy peddle lies and distorted info. Cowards.
The Holy Month of Ramazaan has begun and Muslims started fasting and also praying to One Almighty God to eradicate the Covid-19. As Ramazaan is the month of Blessings and Mercies we all hope the best to get rid of the virus soon. Observing the fasts in Ramazaan is a very unique obedience by total submission to the will of One Almighty God where all the Muslims in the world are selected and chosen to prove that they are the best creatures on this earth compare to other creatures like animals, birds and others and all those who do not observe fasts in Ramazaan from dawn to dusk. The reward for observing the Fasts is very special as Allah says“ Fasting is for me and I shall reward it” because all acts of worship can be seen when done, and they may be impure with some element of showing off, unlike Fasting. If all the people in the world start Fasting and Praying in this Ramzaan to only One God then we hope the Covid-19 can be eradicated soon by the Will of One Almighty God.
So what else you expect the government to do?
People are still very hopeful that things will come back to normalcy in near future, and I too believe so. Melancholy would rather supersede this present state of relative positivity if lockdown is lifted and the virus infection starts spreading the way it has been in US or Italy causing significant number of deaths. Imagine such a scenario happening in India, it will be total chaos everywhere, people will come out on streets and things will start spiralling out of control, which might lead to a national emergency like situation. In my opinion, we are still better off and things are pretty much under control. Sadly, there’s no other way out. Number of cases will definitely rise but hopefully we won’t see an exponential increase in active cases and deaths unlike other countries.
Remember “slow and steady wins the race.”
Please don’t give crap opinion. If the govt does not do this now most elderly will die. Your commentary then will be the opposite.. no wonder no one respects the press…
So, wise guy — any ideas out of this crisis than doing a phased lifting of the lockdown as the govt has very wisely done.
Glad hacks don’t make policy (Guptaji, must be really hurting that so many of his pals in media are going bust. Hope the lockdown on newspapers goes on forever!!).
And slimy hacks like SG have the gall to ridicule Trump — isn’t Trump saying the same thing you are saying on opening the economy?
Well said.
Shekhar, must read what most educated think about lock down continuing. The truth is what Governor of Texas had to say there so much to life than just being alive.
Tomorrow if the fierceness lifts all bars and throws open the field, and the virus spreads like wild fire beyond what we can handle, you will be the first to rise and criticise the govt for its haste. Won’t you?
Making a postmortem is the easiest action. It appears SG has not realized that we are facing a dynamic situation and we are not even been able to predict a likely outcome because of high volatility. Govt is trying to strike a balance between life and livelihood. Critics are just waiting for anything to go wrong so that they can comment.
We have had great leaders for country but never great economist.We want to eradicate poverty but always maintain a class called poor.Every year buying power of money decreases thereby any increase in per capita income is eaten up by inflation.The reason we are behind developed countries is high public expenditure and the current public distribution system which doesn’t create a economic cycle.Govt procures food grains and distributes it for free or price lower than market rate.Think if it paid cash.This would have helped increase volume of transactions.The farmers would have got actual market price.The expenditure and responsibility of storage of grains would have got shifted.The amt spent in administration of pds would have been saved.Even today the govt is not able to provide economic confidence to poor,labour class, sme and even large scale industry.The economy is on the verge of getting collapse.We are into a new world and the more delayed the govt understand this the more damage will be done.I think I can provide a probable solution.
Not sure what the plan is, or if there even is a plan. But, if it’s to lift the lockdown after the virus has been eliminated, we’ll be stuck at home forever. Or, maybe at least a year, at the end of which a lot more of us would be in our graves due to hunger than the virus.
The lockdown could only have been a pause to build infrastructure and systems to tackle any surge that comes after the lockdown. The continuing lockdown can only mean that we’re still not ready. No effective relief package for the poor or small farmers and businesses is ready. No ‘pulse package’ has materialized as promised. So what has Modi & Co been busy with? Politics as usual. Demonising Muslims. Arresting pregnant, non violent activists under UAPA, while the people who shot at peaceful protesters are roaming free on bail, and those with rabid hate foaming at the mouths keep their feet up at home.
Even the Supreme Court which twiddles thumbs saying ‘Modi aap kuch bhi karo, bas hame ‘Loya (RIP)’ mat banao’, protects the PM’s lapdog in uncharacteristic hurry. The RBI announces relief for mutual funds. And of course ‘PM ka naya ghar’ is getting clearances left, right and centre.
The man reluctant to arrange trains for migrant workers travelling thousands of kilometers has now arranged a light and sound show across the nation to give the andh bhakts something to clap about.
If the initial response to the virus was Modi’s Pappu moment, then extending the lockdown forever will be his Tughlaq moment!!
Sorry Sir, your anger against Modi is unwarranted.
Decisions being taken are with consultations of states and their demands.
Now, if it is unilateral decisions of Modi, you will cry, where is Federalism.
If he yields to the suggestions of states, you will come on him like a wall.
I have not heard anything from you regarding Bengal, but Haryana is Kosher for criticism
Your article has nothing constructive and the old passion for criticism of Modi is obvious.
Chit bhi meri, put bhi meri, aur khada…….
Brilliant.I have been always maintaining Modi is the happiest man today his friend Xi gifted him something to enable Modi too become like him.Indians have lost their souls and character.Every one of us will now get used to do ‘uthak- baithak’ as directed by Modi’s babus.
Health is a state subject
So is law n order
Is this federalism
Is centre going to give all money to states ?
The medically induced coma analogy is from Paul Krugman of NYTimes. This is the journalistic equivalent of Bollywood lifting Hollywood scripts. Won’t work in 2020.
Good article.
Tereko to lagega hi ye Sahi article hai.
Bravo. At least one veteran journalist has the courage to call a spade a spade.
USA is most developed country in world and just look at the situation there, as much as i know govt there focused on saving economy first not the people, the reason for more then 1M covid cases and over 65k deaths in 2-3 months is majorly bcz of late waking up of Trump govt. They will save there economy but they will lost nearly 100k lives after being most developed country.
Now after reading ur thoughts it seems u want Indian govt to save it’s economy first but let me remind u just America’s health expenditure is more then total Indian GDP and with present hospital and imp. equipment’s condition in INDIA what u r asking is just deaths in million
Don’t just look at number look at how many die of flu every year in usa. 2018-19 65k people died of flu in 4 weeks 4000 deaths per day.
Have you heard of anyone dying of flu in India.
So going by USA numbers were most people after 30 years are taking 5 to 15 pills and have multiple diseases. Still eat a very unhealthy diet.
They eat ham and eggs for breakfast their only source of fiber is lettuce, white bread and potatoes. They have steaks for dinner and drink a lot more alcohol than Indians.
While India eats non veg too but even the most hard core non vegetarian will not just eat meat alone with a potatoes for a meal.
It will be rice dal even vegetables and meat is the side dish.
Then temperature they have 7 to 13 c if Indians go there they will also have to be admitted in hospital if they get a severe cold.
No research has said that coronavirus spreads in hot region. It is just pseudo logic since tropical countries also have infections so they say heat won’t save you.
But they ignore that hotter countries have had far less infections and deaths even though the quality of their health care is very poor in comparison to cold countries.
Not to mention if you get the virus from Italy to India in an air conditioned plane land in air conditioned airports go to your air conditioned house in an air conditioned car and then go to your ari conditioned office in the same air conditioned car then obviously it will spread.
But it won’t spread when someone sneezes in public in 40 degree heat the droplet will die.
Your bike seat will burn your ass and you are saying virus won’t die
Excellent write up reflecting true situation. We need to prepare our country men to face the difficult situation than to create fear psychosis . Only tough people will sail through.
good.
The glaring difference between India and the US in Covid 19 numbers
An introspection into the “why”.
US and India started the journey of covid 19 almost together with cases in single digits in mid of February to beginning March. US showed an exponential rise right for the beginning with numbers nearly 40 times that of India at any time period in absolute and atleast 120 times going by per million populations. This difference is so blatant and glaring that it cannot be passed away without some rational thought and explanation.
The rise in India was slower right from the beginning with an average of 10-12 % increase per day with a linear acceleration seen in this rate of increase which off late seems to have reduced to about 5-6 percent per day. The explanations offered for this huge difference in numbers from different sources include (1)- May be a low testing rate in India so that the true numbers are larger, (2)- The stringent lockdown in India brought numbers as low and (3)- some other unexplained reason not so obvious.
The testing rates in India are certainly much lesser than that in several other countries of the western world to the tune of atleast 50-80 times. However a deeper analysis with extrapolation of mortality data to this hypothesis does not stand to scrutiny. The deaths being a near fixed proportion of the total number of cases (nearly about 3-5% across the world) would then have to be much much larger for India, than the reported figures, irrespective of low testing rates. Given the huge population numbers of India, the hospitals would have had reported higher admission and mortality figures. As a counter-argument, even if these so called un-diagnosed but possible suspect cases did not reach the hospitals and succumbed at home, data from crematoria would have corroborated the mortality figures. Hence perhaps the bottom line is that the deaths are truly not as large in India and therefore it stands to reason, that indirectly the case loads projected are probably closer to reality.
Considering the next reason, the timely and stringent lockdown exercised by our administration as an explanation for the low number of cases seen in India. May be the strict lockdown and social distancing both “staying at home” policy are valid reasons. However studying population density analysis with India’s current population being nearly 17.7% of the total word population, while its land area being a mere 2.0 % of the total world landmass, it becomes one of the highest ranking nations in terms of population density viz 464 per Km2 or 1,202 people per mi2. On the other hand, USA with an overall population of 4.25% and land area of 6.1% of the total world respectively, ranks much lower on the population density index viz. 36 per Km2 or 94 people per mi2. This then also suggests that the space available for an individual, or indirectly the social distancing average possible with with lockdown in India could still be far less than the space available to an individual or social distancing prevalent in USA without lockdown. More so these explanations do not take into account the massive congregations of individuals during lockdown period in India including the massive collection of migrant labourers at Anand Vihar Bus Terminus in Delhi producing nearly a sea of humanity at one place during early periods of lockdown, the labour movement on foot and their holding in rescue campus with near no possibility of social distancing in these camps. The sheer numbers in areas like Dharavi where a 8×10 ft space accomodates anything from 6-8 individuals making it next to impossible to maintain social distancing by any means. If the exponential rise as seen in US would have happened in these zones, the numbers in India would have been already mind-blowing.
So where does this all lead us to?. The only possible answer lies in the innate immunity inherent in people of Indian ethnic origin including also some other parts of developing world where numbers are not different from that in India. These ethnic populations have been probably exposed to different types of infection both viral and bacterial during their lifetime, beginning right from childhood and continuing through to adulthood. It it is quite possible that one or more of the immune mechanisms that these populations have so developed could be offering some sort of hitherto unexplained resistance or protection from COVID-19, a mechanism which merits more thought and research. . The BCG vaccination given to most people in the developing world could be an additional support to this concept of innate immunity. Americans, or for that matter most western ethnic origin people have on the contrary been brought up in one of the most clean and pristine environments with very little exposure to infections during their lifetime and thus have a possible weak innate immunity, possibly explaining the large numbers of cases and bigger exponential rise in the same time period in these nations. This logic is also supported by the observation that other nations within the Indian subcontinent like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Srilanka which also have a high cluster population density, also have had similar lower number of COVID 19 cases inspite of no stringent lockdown.
Excellent article, lucidly written. If the innate immunity is strong with Indians, in contradistinction with the Westerners, why such a fierce lock down? As Sekhar Gupta writes, life without livelihood will be more disastrous. We need to open the economy to ensure livelihood..
Regards,
akp
Same old bakwaas from Shekhar Gupta.
Well said! But the political leaders will never understand.
Well argued, well stated. Power corrupts, absolute power does so absolutely and here is one dispensation which enjoys absolute power thoroughly. I don’t know how many such writings and statements it takes this government to relent on lockdown now.