Just how successful has the lockdown been? Just how bad would the situation have been if it wasn’t this total?
How can you take a chance in a country of 138 crore, mostly poor, people? Didn’t the prime minister say, “jaan hai toh jahan hai”? Jaan toh hai. We have the lowest per million fatality rate from coronavirus for any major country. Therefore, thank your chosen God — so far, so good. And get back indoors. Really?
We are managing to stay alive, but our livelihoods are in deep freeze. For far too many fellow Indians, these won’t return any time soon. Tens of crores who’ve been lifted out of poverty post-1991 are half-a-wheezing-breath away from slipping back there. We are alive, of course, but remember the famous words of Amitabh Bachchan in the 1979 hit Mr Natwarlal, “yeh jeena bhi koi jeena hai lallu?”
Or let me set the Hindi cinema calendar back five decades instead, and offer you a more prosaic description, if with the help of fine poetry.
Late Gopaldas Neeraj (1925-2018) is remembered mostly as a poet of deep melancholia. Never mind that he also wrote some of the most lifting romantic lines that transcend generations, including Likhe jo khat tujhe (for Shashi Kapoor, Kanyadaan, 1968) and Phoolon ke rang se (Dev Anand, Prem Pujari, 1970).
But his imprimatur for poetic immortality comes from his saddest: Karwan guzar gaya, gubar dekhte rahe… (the caravan passed me by and I was left staring at the dust-clouds in its wake). Sung by Mohammed Rafi and composed by Roshan in the 1966 Tanuja-starrer Nai Umar Ki Nai Fasal, it was the ultimate song of self-pity for the jilted, defeated lover.
It was so sad that it lent itself naturally to becoming the most parodied song of our early school years. The refrain, in the publishable parody version, changed to: Mar gaya mareez, hum bukhar dekhte rahe (all I did was keep checking the temperature, but the patient died).
I understand the connection between fever-checking and coronavirus and the risk of being accused of trivialising a once-in-a-century tragedy. But continuing on, unthinkingly, with more or less the same lockdown amounts to exactly this. If the virus won’t kill us, joblessness, hunger, desolation, depression, and loss of self-esteem will. Quarantine shouldn’t become a death-bed.
Also read: Coronavirus has brought India’s almighty Centre back, and Modi’s unlikely to give up control
As the government’s latest decisions — two-week lockdown extension and very selective opening up in most of our colour-coded country — show, this is not about to change soon. That absolute power corrupts absolutely is old hat. Check out the history of any state or establishment. Absolute power can also intoxicate you absolutely.
That is why the central government is now micromanaging not just the affairs of all the states, but also the day-to-day lives of us individuals. Added with such total power over people, you can only expect many bureaucrats to start behaving like mini Robert Mugabes. Check out Haryana. A senior cop announced on camera the district’s borders are closed for everyone, including journalists (never mind) and doctors. Hello, the state has proudly built something called the Medicity where several large hospitals function. Hundreds of patients, doctors and paramedics commute here from Delhi.
It is one thing that a state is nutty enough to be locking up a district with pretensions to being India’s third Silicon Valley. But it is also a zone both Delhi and Rajasthan need for transit. You think this is absurd enough as an example of absolute power driving the establishment nuts? Read this story by ThePrint reporter Jyoti Yadav on how the state is digging up decent roads on the borders to keep the coronavirus in Delhi. Good idea, digging a moat, just in case it comes riding a T-72 tank.
India may not have the cash or the fiscal headroom to print money — unlike the US, blessed with the world’s reserve currency — to spend its way out of a crisis. But it has an Army, Navy and Air Force, to shore up your spirits as we will see soon. Flypasts, bands, even helicopters dropping flowers over hospitals treating coronavirus patients are cute ideas for an Akshay Kumar film. But when lakhs of workers at the lowest rung of the employment ladder would still be walking back home, this is the true 2020 equivalent of ‘let them eat cake’.
What they need, on the other hand, is a more purposeful reopening and a reassurance that their jobs are not only not going away, but resuming soon, and they are needed. Flypasts as if to celebrate this mass exodus are, I am afraid, an obscenity.
Also read: Why India may not see the kind of Covid-19 outbreak rest of the world has seen
During the Vietnam war, the press corps had given the daily US military briefings a name: Five O’Clock Follies. Such a thing happens when an establishment begins to see its people as infants. Watch the daily Ministry of Health briefings in New Delhi, supposedly giving an overview of the Covid-19 situation in the country.
These are so anodyne, so monotonous and so shy of taking any questions, that you could pretty much name these Four O’Clock Follies. Just the numbers of cases and deaths, how much better we are doing than the rest of the world, day after day after day after day. Out of sheer exasperation at the lack of information, I even landed up at one of these the other day, attending a PIB briefing after a couple of decades, if not longer.
I did ask a question too: “Of all the active cases now, how many are on ventilator?” The lone scientist/doctor there didn’t answer this, a civil servant did. Something like, the percentage of people in serious condition is routinely stated by ICMR/health authorities. Or something to that effect. No follow up, no nothing. Just a restatement of the familiar old bureaucratic tactics: “I won’t ever lie to you. But if you ask me my name, I shall give you my date of birth.”
Three months after the first Covid-19 case was reported in India, we need more than a daily scoreboard. That can be simply tweeted by someone at a fixed time in a day. Nor do we deserve daily instructions, dos and don’ts, and then clarifications. One has already landed (on liquor sale) even as this is being written, confirming the truism: Never believe anything from this government until it’s been clarified.
We need to see the road ahead, a road to some kind of normalcy. Or, we will end up a nation of beggars, waiting for sarkari orders and maai–baap handouts for survival. We are getting deluded by how inspirationally compliant Indians are with this unthinking, one-size-fits-all lockdown that would do Tughlaq proud.
The reason we are so compliant is that we are so fearful. Fear, fatalism and self-pity are all viruses more infectious than coronavirus, more destructive and also addictive. This nation of 138 crore people, hailed globally for being so aspirational and entrepreneurial, is now sitting in the trenches, grateful it is still not dead.
We know that there is a valid concept of putting a grievously ill patient under medically induced coma, to allow the body to recover. But you need to lift it as early as possible. If you let her go on in coma, and pat your own back each time you check the temperature, you risk falling into the syndrome we parodied poet Neeraj about: Kept checking for fever while the patient died.
Also read: Covid hasn’t gone viral in India yet, but some in the world & at home can’t accept the truth
Handling of the situation arising out of the covid19 virus by the central government leaves much to be desired. It is at best inept. The lower strata of the society has suffered the most and the help by the government is hard to come by.
Let me educate you regarding your acts of omission and commission whilst writing this article ! The black swan alarmist scenario you present will NOT happen. The Integrity and Trust the Modi Govt commands is the biggest difference between now and then ! Trust manifests itself in right actions by the people for the people and of the people. Consider this – Direct cash transfer from the Govt Of India to hundreds of millions of Jan dhan account holders – all people at the margins of society. Ditto for food grains via Public distribution system. Ditto is the approach to get agriculture back to work and Ditto will be the approach to get global supply chains into India after this crisis blows over.
Bottom line : An honest clean Govt that inspires Trust will not only sort out the crisis but also convert this into a HUGE opportunity !
Thanks for making me realize that I should never get back to see this site again. What a article. I’m sure the author must be out of his mind while writing this or maybe he is too frustrated. This site has been added to Feed auto hide feeds on my devices as I feel like I wasted my time and also someone should review these articles before publishing. Thank you and no thanks. For people coming from Google Feed, you know you have a toggle.
2020 will be remembered in the history of India. God’s blessings bestow on us! Definitely, the leader will be remembered and would be in the mind of crores of true Indians! India will arise. The only thing we need to see is, how our PM will channelize the entire world to India
Shekhar Gupta says Modi’s decisions are autocratic. Does he not know lockdowns, their scope in red, orange and green districts, duration, what activities are exempted and process of review were announced by Modi only after extensive discussions with Chief Ministers of all State Governments, notably those run by non BJP political parties ? In fact extension of the lockdowns were at the instance of the States !! By now everyone in India must have realized Modi is no fan of a “big bang” approach to any thing, be it economic reforms, policy decisions or as in this instance where he prefers a gradual return to normalcy while being aware of a possible remission of Covid19 with even more devastating consequences, after India is declared “free” of this pandemic.
Water over duck’s back…there is nothing anyone can do but gnash our teeth in despair and pray this government is thrown out soon.
You will get your chance in 2024. You can bring back the pretender with the divine right to rule.
I agree with Shekhar Gupta
I like morons like you,if millions have died because of ifs and buts you are talking about country will be in a uproar but beside sprouting crap like this what else are your so called experts good at?
I was commenting in these lines from the start. No boby seemed to agree with me then.
Mr. Gupta, it is so puzzling. When credit for managing the numbers come we remember all state governments be it Kerela or Rajasthan, but when we want to critisize the lockdown – it is Federal Modi Governemt. Whereas it is clearly in public domain that State Governments at time of both extensions were unambigiously clear to extend it and many had even issues state orders extending before Center.
Same thing you did with the so called Income tax suggestions – critized to the zilt the proposals and when Governemt took action against the illegitimate report / leakage, you guys did a program critizising action As if it was for some unknow reasons your moral responsibility to defend those shady characters.
What is being now is exactly what you say. So what is your point?
Yes. That is the need today. But we are able to talk like this because of such actions. I am seeing it first hand in New York, where the lock down was affected late. The economy here in USA is bad here too; in someways worse. To say what was done in India so far is not good is NOT correct.
Pray tell me how do you measure optimum leadership?
I do not see any threat to the federalism in India than it was at any time during the past seven decades. Let us not be dramatic in informing which is the primary duty of the Media
Now it is 40 Days+Two weeks!
There is a Question!
What happens if there is a voluminous surge of cases amongst the local residents in the Six metros, Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkota, Bangalore and Hyderabad?
Should or would the Nation and the citizens expect or made to go through another extension of two weeks?
What’s the game plan of the Govt? Plan B if the cases keep going up while it has the lockdown! Does it want to go Europe ways of continuing with the long lockdown where the citizens aren’t complaining much because of social security in those countries?
Or does it wish to go the US way, in a reverse manner where the President doesn’t favour the idea of an extension of lockdown but many Governors are going ahead with it?
Mind you, the lockdown isn’t like what one sees in Philipines, India or Brazil because of respectively Rodrigo Duterte, Narendra Modi, and Jair Bolsonaro at the helm.
Ironically, at one hand author questions the authenticity of numbers and in the opening statement he advocates for opening the economy as India has lowest fatality rates. Sounds interesting.
India like all the other countries is walking on a thin line between the health of the citizens and the health of the economy. Economy might recover after a few years if not today. But if the lockdowns are removed about too early the fatalities can be extrapolated from other countries to calculate the no. of deaths for our country of 130 crore. I know that we all want to go out back to our normal lives, but at what cost? Our health system isn’t that strong to support such a huge burden and will collapse in a split second. Much more spending on health care will be required and the economy will still crash. So to save one hand, we’ll lose both. I know we tend to hate our leaders, but there are a lot of civil servants, scientists, doctors advising the government and making policies for what’ll be the best for the country. They are educated people and experts of their respective fields. We should have faith in them. It’s easier for the rich to risk their lives for “saving” the economy, because they have the resources to get the treatment easily. But the poor are the ones who can’t really afford getting sick. After all “Ye jeena bhi kya jeena hai”
Fully agree with the views of Sekar Gupta! Indded he’s spot on – as an article I was reading earlier by professors of the reputed ISB said, there’s a string correlation between GDP growth and death rates. So if the economy shrinks as it is bound to now, many more non-Covid people are going to die. And hordes of us are going to be pushed into poverty… too horrendous a scenario to even imagine! IMO, the lockdown is just a manifestation of the incompetence in the govt machinery and thebitch to exercise unbridled authority. Sad situation.
Agree
A hard-hitting criticism, not only of the policy of dealing with COVID 19, but also the dangers of being conceited and autocratic. Well timed. But will someone listen?
I am no wiser after reading this article. It doesn’t logically establish or justify the opinions expressed , beyond just expressing them.
Mr. Shekhar Gupta, stop using ‘infantalising’ everytime like Pappu’s newly learnt ‘strategic’. You are provoking people by burdening them with your nefarious agenda.
I have been watching Indian journalistic scene from a long time. Mark my words.. Revolution has begun. Your attempts to protect ‘Gumbaz’ of ‘Editors Guild’ are failing. Jai Hind.
Well said
The choice between life and livelihood is a very difficult one.It is facile and easy for journalists to make prescriptive recommendations.The Government has at its disposal competent and intelligent human resources to facilitate the best possible solution>Ofcourse it is the business of the journalist to make critical assessments.But it is the Government that will be accountable for any wrong decision and its fatal consequences.A calibrated approach to decision-making is essential under the given circumstances.Hence the decision to open up areas with no or few corona incidence.appears sensible.The major manufacturing hubs of metropolitan cities are unfortunately suffering from high rates of Corona incidence.These centres can be opened only after the situation is within reasonable control.In any case the States have the freedom to resume economic activities in their safe regions in consultation with the Centre.I agree that the putting uo of physical barriers to the free movement of people and goods across the Country is unwarranted.
Good journalistic background and flowery language, Shakharji, does not excuse the irresponsible tone and content of this message. Will you or Modi be hanged if there is another surge in the viral menace in this ill-disciplined country on relaxing everything and all in the whole countryat this stage? Economy suffers, yes, but if you were in support of the initial lockdown, you cannot now be this irresonsible!
What the pandemic has done is to remind all of us, including the rest of the world, of the extent and depth of poverty in India. The real reason migrants were detained midway was because those haunting images diminished us globally. Sustaining one hundred million families for a few months with just rations and a little money is beyond the capacity of public finances. No question of the sort of stimulus packages America and Germany, among others, have announced. When one reads of choppers showering rose petals, ships at sea being lit up, wonder if we are even cognisant of India’s economic challenges, the scale of deprivation which has now turned to desperation.
This is a very nuanced & an eye opener for the those in the establishment. Hats off to you Shekhar Saheb. Only you could muster up the courage to write such a critical article in an otherwise compliant media. This authoritarian regime doesn’t listen to any sane advice. We really have no idea where are we headed to. Once again you have boldly exposed the all pervading fault lines. After reading this article I less anxious and less scared because if Shekar Gupta can express his views candidly so can I.
Great Sir ! This is what everyone feeling ..even Medics …..This is the result of chronic underfunding of health and let it slip in for Private ..it is too costly area to be overtly dependent on private expenditure just like defence forces ….Look at Germany Chronic Overfunding has helped them a lot …Govt provides compulsory insurance to one who is not able to Afford ….
Looks like SG not happy with lockdown because deaths sland infections have got controlled. So as a journalist he has nothing to berate the government about. If the lockdown is eased and deaths due to Covid 19 increase then he has plenty to crib about. The other reason is probably because his income has reduced and also the realisation of one’s own limitation.
Shekar Gupta should be made the CEO of the country who could have handled all the problems in the country like a super magician with a magic wand who can keep all problems at bay with a swish !!!
He thinks that governing a country is like the capability of using flowery language to impress people about what should be done in any circumstance.
Then Shashi Tharoor would beat him to it !!!
Has he provided any one workable suggestion leave alone a solution !!!
It does require the genius mind of Shekhar to identify problems and say how the problem affects a living being. Any person who is half articulate as Shekar is could also write all this.
This is not an English language essay competition …..it is governance of a country of 1.3 billion diverse socio-economic millieu which is in a total turmoil.
Help if you can don’t give discouraging gyan to pull governments leg.
It is said that you are able to only reach that level of a successful person and not anything higher.
Very well said.this was the reply which i wanted to give
I can suggest an even more apt situational song – Abhimanyu, chakravyuh mein fans gaya hai tu (Kishore Kumar, Amitabh Bachchan, Inquilab). The govt has entered this chakravyuh of lockdown and now they have no clue of how to exit. By the time we manage to bumble our way out, our economic health would have been ruined for many many years with the brunt of the sickness to be borne by the poor and the salaried class.
The problem with Modi’s governance style is that he expects bureaucrats and police officials to manage complex issues like economy, healthcare, livelihoods. Govt babus understand only orders- they do not understand nuances, hence results are uniformly bad. Few years back an initiative called lateral entry for domain experts was started. If there is an appropriate time for lateral entry, there can be none like the present. Let domain experts handle the twin issues of healthcare and economic challenges. But PM Modi cannot and will not do that- he risks ceding too much control. And Indian public will not look at alternatives to PM Modi. Therein lies our chakravyuh – one we cannot seem to exit.
Sorry Shekhar Sir,
But You just seem to have grievances- most of which are because of your personal hatred
I agree we should Open up – but pray tell me which country has got it right?
What previous experience do we follow?
If you look at Spanish flu- we get things wrong and more people will be affected
Good to see that someone has the courage to question this government.
It is encouraging to see Shekhar Gupta back to his reasoning self after a brief hangover post the marketing cocktail served to him by rulers who are busy baking their breads over the fire of helplessness with which the nation is burning..
Adding a few lines from Gulzar “Ab o hava; Ab o hava desh ki bahut saaph hai; Kayada hai kanun hai inasaaph hai; Allah miyan jaane koi jiye ya mare; Adami ko khun vun sab maaf hai; Saab theek thak hain” (Kishore/Salil Chaudhury/Mere Apne)
A good leader like Modi has to balance the conflicting interest of capitalists and the poor. Lifting lockdown is not a black and white decision. Modi haters would want to lift the lockdown so that they use increased death rate to accuse Modi. As usual Modi haters now have nothing else to accuse except people’s increased hardships. Soon we’ll hear librandus drumming that people are dying from hunger rather than Corona.
And blind bhakts will deny all evidence that people actually are. Walk for a few hundred kilometers in the sun without money or food like the poor labourers and then we shall see where your bhakti goes.
Having tasted power – absolute power – to dictate millions of lives, the politicos and bureaucrats are not going to give up on the heady feeling anytime soon. Fear is the key to keep our citizens compliant. We have allowed the government officials to reassert their power over us and micromanage us as if we are a nation of infants. The powers-that-be wants nothing less than the entire nations’s gratitude paid with absolute obeisance..
We may save thousands from the dreadful clutches of the corona virus and get lauded for it, never mind many thousands may slip into abject poverty and stave, as collateral damage to greater glory of statistics!
Instead of colouring the map, one would have imagined the government to come up with a road map to kick start the economic engine which has spluttered to a halt. What we get instead is more anodyne platitudes and vacuous statements. We’re seized in a grip of inaction.
Imran khan has been crying hoarse about the effects of prolonged lockdown on his poor people and some dickheafs make fun of him. But the fact remains we are not europe or America or even china that we start emulating them.
Poverty, acute poverty is a fact of life in southasia and our efforts should be in consonance with alleviating it not aggravating it.
Very good analysis with Lyrics, we like it.
Gaane bhi sab purane waqton ke, the golden age of Hindi music …
I am in complete agreement with Shekhar Gupta , there are so many things we do not know and we cannot be in a state of lock down , til knowledge dawns. We must start living and working normally even at the risk of death (all of us are going to go ) , and hope that things will work out OK in the long term and we survive or die with a modicum of dignity .
The subject is too serious to lift examples from make believe film world. The article on hugely serious and devastating Corona pandemic todate cannot be discussed in such frivolous/ light manner. I don’t have high hopes from Shekhu.
As usual Sir Spot on
Please keep this up
You were to start a pay button for your print edition
Please keep me posted
Always biased and anti govt stand is not good.this paper is not good for anything
An excellent article again by Shekharji. I would like to provide an unthinkable analogy. The story dates back to the month of October 1760. The Maratha army led by Bhausaheb Peshwa was on the west bank of flooded Yamuna while the aggressor Abdali’s army was on the east. Bhausaheb ventured to take his army along with thousands of non-combatant pilgrims to Kunjpura, about 75 miles north of Delhi. With help of his vast army, Bhausaheb easily captured the small Kunjapura fort but overstayed there with the intention to have a holy bath in nearby Kurukshetra. In the meanwhile , Abdali gathered courage and crossed the Yamuna near Bagpat. This was a master stroke by Abdali due to which he effectively blocked Maratha Army’s return to Delhi. Bhausaheb scrambled back till Panipat and settled there by digging drenches and put his French guns therein. The firepower of the Maratha artillery led by Ibrahim Khan Gardi was so ferocious and the arrangement was so tight and seemingly perfect that it provided a false sense of security. However, Abdali was too shrewd to walk into this trap. He never attacked. All he did was to cut Maratha supply lines and sieged Panipat encampment from all sides. According to the historian T.S. Shejwalkar, a far better option for the Peshwa was to attack immediately after arrival at Panipat. The chances of victory were far better when the moral of the Maratha army was high and Abdali’s army was yet to settle on the western bank. But Bhausaheb dared not think of this option as it endangered lives of thousands of non-combatant pilgrims. Two months passed and the Maratha army was trapped inactive in its own castle. The hungry army cried for food but none was available. Finally, Bhausaheb was forced to fight a losing battle on 14th January, 1761, known as the Third Battle of Panipat in which the army, the non-combatants, all perished.
The moral of the story is self-explicit and doesn’t need any elaboration.
Incisive, clairvoint, and to the point
Lots of words in the article and plenty of criticism of PM Modi & the Govt – but what alternate solutions and policies are proposed? It’s so easy to to criticize without proposing alternatives.
Hired guns like you speak on behalf of the Congress – but this just shows up the great Sonia Ji & the perennial come-back kid Rahul Ji as bereft of ideas! They have nothing to offer other than renting mouthpieces like The Print to criticize on their behalf.
There is a saying in India. Do not fight, just go with the flow of life. Modi is .floating in the flow.
“Using a cannon to kill a mosquito.” This sums up the govt decision on extending the lockdown.
The Power to stop should change to power to help.
You have literally spoke my mind… Infact modi need an adviser who is an epidemiologist who is has good understanding of economics and social justice or an economist who understands epidemiology… that too if at all he cares to take advice or someone dares to give advice. He approach is only aimed at taking credit of saving lives of fictious numbers… As financial loss can be blamed on many factors such as global recession etc… By the way the poor voting class is already habituated with living as poor or had experienced in the past of living poor can be made happy for making them keep alive from dreaded COVID-19 infection though death rate is just 4%…thanks to media…
Modi now in quarantine?
He did not come on air to declare lockdown 3.0
There seems no vision of how to bring the country back on track.
Government is paralyzed.
Extremely well writtten and coherent .The economy was anyways in ICU the lockdown has ensured coma stage not even 0.001 % of Indian population has been affected but the umemployment rate has soared to above 20 % effecting the marganalised section of the soceity .The first lockdown was essential and necessary but the exit plan has had no creative solution
Totally agree with you!
As if only SG is the one who knows all these and people in the government are all dumb .just get lost with your advice and go and have a video chat on this RG
500,000 people die of road accidents in India every year. If you stop traffic on roads forever, these lives can be saved.
This is what Brazil president said. And know on his knees. In Delhi you don’t have empty beds in hospitals