Why are we talking movies in the era of Covid? Especially when it is neither Outbreak, nor Contagion. It is the 1992 classic, A Few Good Men.
Among the most quoted exchanges from that film is Tom Cruise as Lt Daniel Kaffee demanding the truth from Jack Nicholson’s Marine Col. Nathan R. Jessep, who famously throws a counter at the prosecutor: You can’t handle the truth.
That was about an ugly and inconvenient truth that Nicholson’s character was seeking to hide and justify. For this week’s argument, however, we are reversing that logic.
Can we confront you, therefore, with the same counter — you can’t handle the truth — when it isn’t as bad as you might have expected in this coronavirus crisis in India?
India is by no means going through a picnic. The entire country is locked down, more stringently than any other in the world, with all the attendant consequences: Economic stall, job losses, even mass misery in significant pockets, and hunger.
Yet, the truth that many, especially in the global commentariat, find so inconvenient is that contrary to what so many wise people with fancy degrees from a university in this league or that might have asserted by now, millions or lakhs, or even tens of thousands of us, are not dying. Apologies for letting you down.
Our drains are not filled with bodies, our hospitals have not run out of beds. Our crematoriums and graveyards are not out of wood or space. There is not even a cricket field-sized sliver of India anywhere that might help you make a convenient or macabre comparison with the Spanish Flu of 1918. The India of 2020 is not perfect. But it is a far cry from the India of that past.
That good news, or absence of expected bad news, is the truth that so many in the international community, and also within India, seem unable to handle. Isn’t it too good to be true?
Also read: Why India may not see the kind of Covid-19 outbreak rest of the world has seen
We seek refuge again in the eternal wisdom of N.R. Narayana Murthy: “In God we trust. The rest of you bring data.”
The daily Government of India briefing on the Covid-19 crisis is often criticised for opacity, lack of information, and some Yes Minister-style bureaucratic ducking and weaving. But it gives you a set of data. We have the right, then, to be suspicious. But we then have to find facts from somewhere to counter it.
One scholar who tracks this data each day and publishes a string of brilliantly informative charts is Brookings Institution’s Shamika Ravi. You can check these out on her Twitter handle here. Her key chart shows us how India’s infection numbers had picked up pace by 23 March, but then began a decline, especially once the Tablighi bulge was absorbed, by early April. The numbers went from doubling in 3 days to 5, then 4 (with the Tablighi cluster), and now stand at 8 days. Her chart also assumes that if there was no lockdown, India’s infections would be about nine times higher than the figure now.
You can extend the same logic to fatalities and positive tests also. Both have generally remained in the same ballpark, about 3.4 per cent and 4.1 per cent, respectively.
Now, how can this be true, you can well ask. Can you trust official data? Look elsewhere. As we did.
The data plotted by the darling of the public health community, World Health Organization, plots the rate of doubling in 7 days now. As does the European Centre for Disease Control. Most delightfully, the darling of the doomsayers, Johns Hopkins University, whose logo was used by a set of them predicting millions of us dead, and was called out for misusing it, plots this rate of doubling of Covid cases in India at 8 days.
Of course, you may still say this is too good to be true; that everyone, from a top UN organisation to a premier European institution to a globally-respected university are all complicit with the Modi government. You may be right. But we will repeat to you that Narayana Murthy caveat. Bring data. Unless you think you are God.
I spend most of my time, especially during the lockdown, reading up and watching whatever is available globally on coronavirus. Every couple of days, there is a story or a commentary insinuating and implying three things: One, India must be concealing figures. Sometimes a snide remark in a TV discussion. Two, that India will soon — and inevitably — be the worst victim of the virus with millions dead. And three, that we in the Indian media are either complicit with the Modi government and won’t speak the truth, or so intimidated that we can’t.
The fact is that all our reporters are also looking at the same set of data points with a high degree of suspicion. Something to prove that the government figures are a gross under-estimation or a China/North Korea style fudge. But we do not find such facts — at hospitals, in surveillance figures, from so many state governments where anti-BJP parties rule. Health, in India, is a state subject.
An easy option is to follow the way of the BBC which, earlier this week, ran a story quoting two anonymous doctors from an unnamed hospital in Mumbai claiming lots of people were dying of respiratory collapse but were either not tested for Covid or not declared its victims. Would they run a story like that on Britain, or any other country where they’d treat human life in a more dignified, less cavalier fashion? But this is the ‘bhookha–nanga’ India, what is the story if it isn’t at least a few hundred thousands of Indians dead? Especially when the UK, Italy, Spain, the US, are already floating in high five figures. Or unless you begin counting for bodies like our Holy National Accountant of Yore used to count notional losses, with series freely added.
Also read: Does India need more Covid-19 testing or is it an uninformed argument?
The truth so far, fortunately, is less “fun” than that. I am not wagering anything on the news not taking a turn for the worse tomorrow, especially after the lockdown opens, but we can’t make those presumptions now.
This is the most polarising global pandemic in world history. First, globally, because the virus came from China and the deputy superpower does not want anyone mentioning that fact. Second, because the two global leaders the liberal community detests, Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, have bungled with its handling. And third, closer home, because Narendra Modi is seen as a member of the same Alpha Male Brotherhood. So sharply has this disease politicised us that even an 80-year-old drug like chloroquine has become contentious because Trump is prescribing it, and Modi dispensing it.
All stories do not necessarily turn out to be as lipsmackingly juicy as you might have expected them to be. The days when you could conveniently exaggerate, multiply and fictionalise mass tragedies in poor countries are over. And poor as India might be, its media, civil society, and most importantly, the common citizen, haven’t been mentally and spiritually transhipped post-2014 to North Korea or China that they’d pay no heed to fellow countrymen dying around them. Or to believe their government that claims there is no coronavirus victim, or that, oh, I got my count of the dead a little bit wrong, by just 50 per cent (to begin with) in Wuhan.
India, unfortunately, has a very recent experience of having been subjected to such callous and criminal excess by global influencers, especially from some sections of foundation-fattened public health mafias. Strong words, but why waste euphemisms on those who unanimously counted India’s HIV positive cases to be 5.7 million and rising? Until the summer of 2007, when a paper in Lancet derailed the gravy train? Everyone, from UNAIDS to WHO to the richest foundations, all conveniently rectified the numbers. You know to what: 2.5 million. India was being subjected to a 128 per cent exaggeration.
India’s numbers have been dropping since. You can read two stories from the venerable New York Times here and here on how everyone who had been complicit quietly retreated and reset. No one said sorry.
A few honourable Indians complained. Civil servant S.Y. Quraishi (then head of the National Aids Control Organisation or NACO) in 2005, and before that, Shatrughan Sinha as health minister in 2002, when Bill Gates arrived with a grant of $100 million for AIDS control and predicted that by 2010, India will have 20-25 million cases. They were ignored.
They all got away with it, including so many in our bureaucracy, activists and health NGOs, who had joined that well-funded, wine ’n cheese war to ‘save’ India. They all retreated. But the damage they did wasn’t just philosophical. It was real. The Hollywoodisation of AIDS in India took attention and resources away from more real issues. Like tuberculosis, to begin with.
Also read: Sick doctors, shut hospitals, no guidelines — a Wockhardt doctor on India’s Covid response
Touche, score, ditto, hole in one.?
Modi is winning.
He has a gift none of his eight predecessors, from Manmohan Singh to Rajiv Gandhi, had: Being able to speak directly and convincingly to a large enough section of Indians who will take his word for gospel, and his order like a papal bull. Shekhar Gupta
Print is doing good job but they should avoid publishing stupid raciest article like they did with Ravinder Jadeja story
> you can’t handle the truth<
This is the Devil's advocate argument but let us address it.
By Lockdown – only one thing that was already proven has been proven.
The MOST crudest and disabling version works.
This required sacrifice from most and gloating from a few.
It was a purchase at a high cost to the individual for which he/she has paid – not the government.
What did we do with that : WE bought time.
How did we use the time- to GLOAT and be GOAT.
This should have been used scientifically to collect – proper verifiable data which could be used to make policy for future relaxation.
We have used the data to justify what did not need to be justified.
Yes, you are right – not only now , even in future -You won't be able to handle the truth
Dear Mr Gupta,
I expect from a good journalist critical examination of data. Be it from central or state government. Not triumphalism. In a country where death certificates are not written, not filled in properly or gone missing, how can you be so disposed to mirth? Even if in rural areas a dozen of people would die per day more due to Covid 19, would it appear in any governmental state statistics, what the cause of death was?
This is desi Chandrasekaran unlike zenophobic one from far offl lands.
Sekharji tests karwayiye
Malum hojayega
Everyone wants it to end. But as i earlier also requested please have some guts to ask questions about Gujarat. 48 dead. Gujarat model. Patgetic health infra.
If at all no is less it is due to tremendous work on the part of state govts like kerala, tn, odissa, chatisgarh, rajasthan and even UP
Gujarat? And feb 22 you remember and too frightened to remember. Come on !!! Show you have spine
Who can forget feb 22nd. Those 3 days Of naked dance when 55 Indians were butchered on the streets of Delhi and this same govt looked other way. Let’s make each and every death accountable. Weather it is Modi or Trump.
Great Job ,Shekhar
Mr. Shekhar Gupta, you are playing a wily and double game trying to be over smart. If you have guts, openly credit the Modi government for it’s untiring efforts on coronavirus fronts. If you guts, openly discredit the anti-nationals, infamous Columbia University tutored Siddharth Varadarajan and his gang in Editor’s Guild. You are singing different tunes there as President of EG and here as a dishonest journalist. Shame on you.
Shekar ji,
Sincerely hope you’ve not jumped the gun a la Bro Ghebreyesus and Bro Fauci and Bro Trickster & so on so forth.
The voice of sanity in these awful times.
The pandemic in India Decluttered you ( a hard core clutter wala ) . Some decluttering ? Some Shekhar ? Eh ? Oongli kaato !
Bravo work!!
Hats off to this article!
Don’t follow economists. They are failed mathematicians, scientists, doctors and physicists given a hall pass to live in the knowledge economy. If 2×2 charts and datasets plucked out of govt reports can assure you, we may also believe in flying pigs. Fact a lot of Indians agree or disagree with anything says a lot about the content of the piece. A terrible fluff piece and I mean it with utmost respect.
When people outside India and also over enthusiastic pseudo-intellectuals predicted that dead bodies will be rolling out in thousands, fortunately, India seems be still in hundreds (sad that so many did die), but the over all count increase from 3 days to 8 days is heart warming, plain truth that social distancing and lockdown is effective so far, except in few pockets and few sections of society. People do say that in Kerala, they are not reporting death due to COVID-19 and most the new positives are treated by anti-biotics and never reported as COVID-19 positive cases. This could be like Wuhan under reporting. But still, the mortuaries in Kerala is not that full, nor the grave yards. Indian media has one thing for sure has learnt from western media, “Don’t trust your own government”. And create as much stories as the time is fast running out given that COVID-19 may not stay long for they story board. For reality check, we need to visit this page in mid August 2020 to see how India fared. Too early to call it a day.
For the column’s optimism to be validated all the way up to the end of the pandemic would be the best thing that can happen to India. God’s grace and compassion. India is still on a rising curve, although the rate of doubling of cases has slowed. Whether the federal government’s preparations and response deserve all the credit is hard to say. After limiting the human toll, the forbidding task will be to restore livelihoods.
Yeah Yeah Yeah ! The govt does not know that.
Shekhar ji
From all the comments before mine I realise one thing
Damned if you do and damned if you don’t!
+1
Guptaji please see the movie Pinjara. You are in the same state as Sriram Lagu.
The BBC is truly an international institution as it focuses so completely on other nations that news from Britain is a low priority. For example during this ongoing pandemic all it’s attention is on Italy, Spain, US, Iran, Brazil and other badly hit countries. It’s heart bleeds more for future possible deaths in poorer countries like India, South Africa etc. then for the far greater deaths at home. It’s coverage of PM Boris Johnson’s illness and stay in hospital would have done the erstwhile Soviet Union proud and will most probably find it’s way into ‘censorship training’ manuals in China and North Korea. Only the credulous, those who believe that British colonialism was a force for good and those with a deep rooted inferiority complex treat the BBC as the word of God. Goes without saying that this applies to most media organisations in the Anglo Saxon world.
Absolutely agree with this. BBC tops the list for being most boring and biased (one-sided) when it comes to presenting news on India. However, for words on British Royalty., evaluating the mediocre Andy Murray, or anything to do with national pride, it behaves like a fawning mouthpiece. At least Sky News tries to take a middle position. The lesser said of the Western print media, the better.
Kind of brainless comment. You can change your settings to see the BBC UK feed. Plenty of UK news there. Nitwit.
Oh yes! I totally agree with you. There’s plenty of the ‘Cat ran away with the neighbor’s dog’ variety British news.
BBC’s coverage in the recent past has been shockingly slanted. If you type “India” in the search box on the website you will find nothing but negativity, a neutral observer would think that the country is falling off the cliff.
The articles often don’t even have the names of the writer, a basic rule of journalism that is not followed.
During the coverage of repealing of Article 370, articles began with the statement “BBC has heard”. Since when did hearsay become a creditable source of information, especially for a topic where we know that there has been massive amount of misinformation being spread by all sides.
I don’t expect them to be flag bearers of the establishment or even believe what the govt says, but the fact is that they have all sense of objectivity and are no longer a credible source of news.
So well-said about a snobbish media organization, Vish.
” It’s coverage of PM Boris Johnson’s illness and stay in hospital would have done the erstwhile Soviet Union proud and will most probably find it’s way into ‘censorship training’ manuals in China and North Korea. Only the credulous, those who believe that British colonialism was a force for good and those with a deep rooted inferiority complex treat the BBC as the word of God. ” Well said.!!! Glad people do notice such biased coverage by BBC. The viewers get high blood pressure by watching their almost racist coverage!
As always very nice summary of what is happening in India. As far as Coronavirus spread is concerned, the comparison countries are Pakistan and Bangladesh, and not the Europe or the USA. Simply because we must compare countries having similar climatic conditions. It is true that Coronavirus is under check in India but reasons for this are still in the fog of the future. It is not rocket science, as to what is needed to stop the virus – lockdown, tracing, testing, preparing hospitals etc and searching for effective treatment. Each country has to adapt its own strategy to target, scale-up and fine-tune, these interventions to get best outcomes. Key question is – are we in India doing these things right or just praising ourselves because we have been lucky to have the hot climate.
True, we should be focussed on doing things right and take advantage of the climate here….
Test a lot, make sure that after lifting of lockdown, we don’t let it multiply from the residuals.
Also, make things better for the migrants and plan a calibrated strategy to reach them to their villages to avoid the sudden rush after the lockdown is lifted and trains restarted.
Too early to be so euphoric.
Bhai duniya bhar ki baatein kar di, this article has no essence just a lot of talk of data and mery go round of words.
Mr. gupta,
The facts are simple:
1. you have no data whether your neighbor who’s coughing is corona infected or not
2. Someone who dies, whether they died of corona or not
When you can show the data, I will believe your theories.
Best.
I think that was his point. There is data but you dont want believe it. So instead of saying – correct the data – you should bring the counterfactual
Right.
Your are right on the dot. There is no way to know reality until there is a proof at least statistical one. There can’t be proof without verification and validation. This is not possible until there is rigorous testing which is also good to become basis for sound policies.
I would say instead of being complacent PM Modiji should give resources – money, food grains, testing kits, protection kits etc as most of the resources are with center even though state a the front line in the battle against the virus. You don’t want ignore those who don’t have house balconies or front yards.
Let us remember virulence of virus remains same and there is no way to avoid testing to identify and control the spread as transmission can be asymptomatic.
Does ur neighbours died u moron. I like in apartment complex of 1700 flats. Multiply by two. No reported case in my community. As matter of fact we have bright entire area on app platform and numbers were extacty matched with gov data.
No need to expalin to morons like u.
Perhaps the problem lies in the absence of agency among Indian stakeholders – whether economists, media or administrators, to put the positive story across. Most of the academics interviewed in the Indian media, for example, are not seen on American or British television. We must find ways to locate ourselves more publicly and for our (non-hysterical) voice to be heard. Having said that, I must say that Gupta’s ‘Cut the Clutter’ does a better job at staying neutral (most often) than the editorials which steer toward sentiment.
An easy conclusion to draw from this article is that Shekhar is turning bhakt without any sense of guilt!
Keeping that aside, there is no doubt that India has handled this crisis well and Modi did act timely, decisively and effectively. He allowed the teams to work effectively and collectively. Hence, despite many constraints inherent in our health system, we have controlled the situation. The period of last one month or so also shows that we are capable of engineering lot of things required – ventilators, testing kits, N-95 and N-99 masks, innovative products and technologies and also re-discover that we can make required APIs ! It also indicates that our funding of research and development on health related ares have been totally inadequate and we were happy to import cheaper things from China all the time. This is a major gain for the country and hopefully, we develop total self reliance in this area soon. We could also observe for the first time, PM and all the CMs working together effectively. We could see how effectively Yogi managed to get stranded migrants out of Delhi or students from Kota. In Kerala, we saw RSS and SFI working together to feed migrants! Similarly, Kerala, TN, Maharahstra, Delhi CMs were seen working hard and effectively. We had India working at its best.
It does not matter who says what and in particular, from the western world. In the NDTV program by Pranoy Roy where he talks to so called world’s best, we know what quality of advises these bests have to offer compared to sound knowledge and wisdom contained in say, interview in The Print with our desi Dr. Gangakhedkar or any one from AIMS or even usual government babus like in the recent ‘Off the cuff with CEA,”.
But we are on for a long haul on corona but reigning in the growth of infection has given us a good time to get required infrastructure in place. The real fight is to be fought by people themselves by wearing masks,hand gloves, following cleanliness, avoiding crowded places and protecting old. But a confident India has emerged and will be ready for any such emergency in future.
Of course, Modi hai to Mumkin hai!! But I hope Shekhar goes back to being sickular soon; he is not out of the world in that space!
You left me a bit confused, Mr. Surendra Barsode. Why would a “Modi hai to Mumkin hai” announcing gentleman remark ” Shekhar is turning bhakt without any sense of guilt!”. Is he not allowed to be objective, which he, esp. during his IE days, he mostly has been? Having said that, it’s a pleasure reading your comments.
Seriously? What nonsense! Print is doing an excellent job, at least for us simple folks who want a balanced view of things.
Sirji , please do not compare India with others. We all know how our government handled as none you guys have done a fact check. You all continue to whip TJ event but ignore what was spread rate from other events including the large gathering organised to welcome Trump and several other gathering which continued well after TJ event. And what about Physical Distancing measure which was not put in place from the day we got first case in Kerala and why there was no curbs all large gatherings. Though I don’t rely foreign media or see their discussion. Let us look inwards first. Imagine the government can organise special bus to bring back special children from Kota (which indeed I welcome on humanitarian ground), why the children could not have been educated to maintain physical distance,. Why no such gesture to migrants struck in various places. If even now physical distance cannot be maintained by majority, what moral right we have to attack TJ which does not pardon the organisers for what they did.
Agreed.
Mr Nagarajan, I hope you know how this virus spread, all over world various Govt. ask a person to isolate 14 days if they have any symptoms or coming from virus affected country.
By your login if it happens during Trump visit to India, there were couple of hundred thousands gathering in that event and by now Ahmedabad / Gujarat could become another Wuhan / New York it did not happen so please keep your rubbish argument with you.
In case of TJ there were hundreds of person came from overseas having symptoms of virus and they spread themselves all over India. Main point is people who visited TJ is hiding and not coming forward for test. You may not have any idea of seriousness of this in India as our density of population is so high, once it become out of control you cant trace any one.
“In God we trust. The rest of you bring data.”
Someone else I think said that. There are several claimants, but certainly not NRN. NRN has other credits — one of the pioneers of techno-labour shopping (“techno coolies” as some call it).
Why is it that Shekhar Gupta sees events unfolding in India in right direction while many jernos and authors writing for ThePrint in left direction? Isn’t a clever way of balancing the politics? There are so many stories appearing on daily basis that degrade ThePrint. If ThePrint has to become a leading news portal, it should stop stories that are not only mere political opinions but a platform for propagation of manufactured facts. Except Modi haters turned India haters, everybody knows that librandus have gone insane and have no way of reclaiming what they have lost to nationalists. The roles among Librandus and nationalists are perfectly reversed i.e. librandus becoming most illiberal and nationalists embracing liberalism.
If you think all journos in Print should sing the same tune you should know trend of the tune also changes with time. This too shall pass.
Well written but you haven’t explored the fact that we are seeing one of the lowest testing rates among major countries. I would like to believe that India is fairing as well as you say, but the suspicion arises because of low testing numbers. Another aspect is that so many foreign returnees entered in Feb/March could be asymptomatic carriers when screening was only for fever and flu symptoms. A number of cases have come up where vguidelines for home quarantine for such returnees have been violated. The government has taken strong action,no doubt, but the numbers still seem suspicious. You call for data, but it is exactly the lack of testing data that people are suspicious about.
Gupta Saheb , a very thought provoking and very informative article. Kudos to you. But who’s line you’re towing ? Have you received a well deserved ” Padma ” ? If no then it’s a great effort and if yes then an effort is wasted.
“Would they run a story like that on Britain,……..” The point is hot whether BBC would run the story in Britain or not BUT whether what they said was FACT
Anonymous doctors from anonymous hospitals?
Credible?
All the best
If India had similar number as UK then its catastrophe but its in UK so its only grim….
FACTS manufactured by BBC.
In the month of Ramazaan we hope the Covid-19 Coronavirus can be Knocked Out and can be eradicated because Ramazaan is a month of Blessings and Mercies. If all the people in the the world from all religions decide and start fasting in Ramazaan and supplicate to One Almighty God by praying with a pledge that they worship only One God and follow His commandments and refrain from committing sins and help the poor and hungry by all means and carry on the message of truth. If the world can do that just for a month to eradicate the Virus by God’s Will, then there is no better and cheaper deal than this to come out from the greatest calamity.
Why would others fast for Ramadan? Why don’t you fast for Navaratri which is only nine days?
Well said. Let us turn to the oldest. What say?
Bravo! Why is media in general in our country is failing to see truth from such perspective ! The world of intellectuals and their indian stooges were expecting a slumdog millionaire kind of exotically filthy body piling reality out of India isn’t it ?Way to go shekhar gupta and Print!!
Absolutely right. It is disheartening to the western media that the body bag numbers in India are not piling up. Forget about the statistics and numbers being reported by the government, if there is an element of truth, we would be seeing hospitals being overrun by patients and dead being found on streets daily. Is that happening daily.? No. So before being overridden by envious suspicion and bring the old narrative on how India always fails and there is always a tragic story to be seen coming by default from India, it is time that these western journos, introspect what is happening in their own companies and where the governance is falling short, before commenting on India’s case and suspect the numbers, portray as if the entire country is somehow hiding the “facts” which they(western journos) want to see and hear so delightfully, which to their distress is not happening on the ground. I would say tough luck to these folks with colored lenses
Well said. Let us turn to the oldest. What say?
Why you are commenting prematurely ??…At least in crisis, reporters should learn not yo be anxious and study, watch, wait and then write,,,this is one opportunity for journalists to correct their approach…This will help them in long term
Are bhai kehna kya chahte ho?
The world always talks through it’s back side when talking about India. When polio eradication was started in Indua in early 1990s, the “wisemen” brt Polio can never be eradicated in Undia, it was impossible to immunise the entire country on a single day. the National Immunization Day. 2014 Insia was declared Polio Free and maintains it.
Unfortunately we have media and Elitist crowd and the China loving Marxists who will always disparagingly if India, and NYT , BBC, Economist, Washington Post will quite experts and write off India.
This is one of them. And adding to the heart burn of the foreign looters and colonials and their servants, it is under PM Modi’s watch its happening.
Thanks for enlightening me on this. I believed the AIDS story (and so many others like it) dished out by the crooks.
Oh my good lord..what a revelation that author can be a nationalist finally.
This is the first time I have seen the author batting for India questioning the western world.
Albeit it took a crisis of this proportion to question the western intelligentsia, propaganda, the truth is India can lead also on global stage.
Provided we don’t seek western approval at every drop of the hat but slowly and steadily build on our relying and building in the everyday science and life.
We trust our own. This will lead to one India, Indians and indianess.
As always an excellent piece from an unbiased and sharp observer of India. Shekhar Gupta is one person not afrraid to call out liberal and western nonsense about India.
Mr. Shekhar Gupta, amongst the “global commentariat” India barely barely ever gets a mention, negative or positive. So stop worrying about international reaction to whatever is going on in India. What is this paper-degree educated Indians’ obsession with what the world thinks of India when the world is not even thinking of India. You seem very boastful that India is not seeing COVID-related damage similar to what we see in New York city for example. I think being grateful is appropriate but boastful?!! For what? What has India or the govt done that is uniquely different to warrant such a boastful attitude?
Lastly, are you the same “gentleman” who was in the supplementary charge sheet filed by the Enforcement Directorate of India in the Rs 3,600 crore AugustaWestland chopper scam? I thought so!
You may be right and I hope you are.
But is there a scientific reason for this?
Is this virus sparing Asians?
Europeans and Americans are facing the brunt of it and yet China is now way down in the list on infections and India has escaped unscathed (comparitively speaking).
Pakistan is doing just fine too, they have no lockdown. Both countries are doing better for the same reason: better immune systems and a weak covid virus strain.
Wow! Bang on Shekhar ji, bang on.
An excellent article. Let us go back in history. 1918 flu pandemic in India was the outbreak of an unusually deadly influenza pandemic in between 1918-1920 as a part of the worldwide Spanish flu pandemic. Loss of life in India: up to 12-17 million people in the country, the most among all countries or about 5% of the population. Bengal famine of 1943: Madhusree Mukerjee in her book, “ Churchill’s Secret War” has estimated loss of life of more than 5 million. Compared with these two worst natural calamities that afflicted India in the recent history, the Covid-19 has so far claimed about 400 lives. Worldwide, the toll is quite high – in excess of 1 lakh. But in the twenty first century, the media is quite strong. Pages and pages have been written, in-depth analysis is carried out in print, electronic and digital media. We do not find much information in the form of books or articles about the two calamities of the twentieth century. How would the humanity remember the Covid-19 crisis say after hundred years in 2120? My guess is that it would remembered more as an economic crisis- a depression comparable with the 1928 world-wide Great Depression, rather than as a medical calamity. By no stretch of imagination can Covid-19 be considered as an existential threat. Such a threat occurred seventy five thousand years ago. We, Homo Sapiens, were in the eastern corner of the African continent and the Toba volcanic eruption occurred in Indonesia. It ranked as the most powerful volcanic event in the last twenty five million years. It blew and unimaginable 670 cubic miles of dirt into the air which caused large areas of Malaysia and India to be smothered by volcanic ash of 30 feet thick. What followed was even worse: a volcanic winter in which vegetation and wildlife was totally devastated. Humans survived a genetic bottleneck and thereafter spread over the entire surface of the earth. Our population now exceeds more than 7.5 billion. Again I ask the same question : How would the humanity remember Covina – 19 in which say about 1.5 lakh persons are estimated to die? If we try to answer this question, we can see the pandemic in its proper historic perspective .
Sir, I watch your de-clutter Series for its informative value-a bit too windy, but insightful. I wish you had talked a bit more about testing or absence of it. And it’s relationship to the data thrown at us. Also the plight of ‘migrant’ labour- lakhs of them- caught as a collateral damage in this lockdown game- could have been dealt with a bit more sensitively. I also do not see any mention of the fact that the country which on 17th January started scanning incoming international travellers, didn’t have many scenarios worked out for Covid‘a progression that when it finally came with the lockdown announcement it caught lakhs by labourers by surprise, to their utter detriment. Do you think a case for casual approach can be made out against the government?
Thank you for stating exactly what I was about to comment.
Another update: government’s decision to reopen businesses subject to social distancing from April 20th (today) has already resulted in traffic jams in Mumbai. Even if we survived the first wave (which is hard to say for sure, without adequate testing) it seems like the government is tempting fate by inviting another.
gupta ji that comment was not from Narayn Murthy but Edward Cummings. Murthy is not capable of this level of wisdom. After this I stopped reading.
Seems you stopped reading the original quote also midway , it was was by W Edward Deming and not Edward Cummings. Do note the saying about ” Half knowledge being dangerous…..”
An authentic piece of corona reporting with carefully disguised jabs thrown in. Shekhar Gupta has trumped himself (pun?) in reporting it as objectively as facts dictate. A masterclass in print journalism !
It isn’t exactly one-way traffic. If there are doomsayers on one side, there are also those for whom everything is a “masterstroke” irrespective of the consequences. And it is a fact that the local news media and the social media are filled with these types.
The net result is- public discourse is now reduced to a football match – with supporters and opponents but no referee.
One wonders why the “other side” doesn’t find a mention. Could it be because the author cannot handle the truth ?
You may be right and I hope you are.
But is there a scientific reason for this?
Is this virus sparing Asians?
Europeans and Americans are facing the brunt of it and yet China is now way down in the list on infections and India has escaped unscathed (comparitively speaking).
Well, let’s hope this is true.
But it also tells us that India is not really an economic and tourist hub connected to the rest of the world like Singapore or even a Brazil. Travel to India seems to consist of primarily Indians.
Secondly, the road is a long one and it needs just one small cluster to go viral. Let’s pat ourselves a year later.
It is too premature to be confidant and boasting on the data we have because for the fact that data is not enough. Cases are slow to rise because of the lockdown. That is sure. However, we have no other epidemiological details to study the scenario in India. It is so tightly guarded that it encourages distrust. Also laboratory testing is low to begin with to conclude for a population of 1380million. So please hold your horses. Even if COVID19 is controlled now, it can bring on a second wave once it is lifted. That time it will be difficult to control.
Such a brilliantly written rebuttal. You said it all. Perhaps this episode of westerners even hoping for india to have many more cades has exposed their racism and feeling of european supremacy are not yet dead. Sharing this.
Akhil you’re so right. even after 70 years BBC and the whites can not digest that they were kicked out of India. Even some media groups in uk and USA. India is not banana republic or a military occupation. Our media and press and Supreme Court are the best in the world
Excellently articulated. Very well written. I do listen to his videos on ” Cut the Clatter”. We need fair and objective journalists like Shekhar Gupta. Best wishes to you Mr.Gupta.
Chandrasekaran Subramanian
Currently in Houston, TX