New Delhi: Until a few years ago, the BJP had a negligible presence in Assam. Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when it won seven seats, however, not only has the party won a state election but it now looks set to better that mark.
According to trends as of 3 pm, the BJP-led NDA is leading in 10 of the 14 seats in the state. Among the others, Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF is ahead in two seats, the Congress in one and an Independent candidate in the remaining one.
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What is most striking is how the BJP managed this feat despite anger over its aggressive push for the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill — which seeks to give citizenship to non-Muslim refugees — which contradicted the ethnic versus non-ethnic fault-lines in the state.
The bill
Despite the bill going against all that the ethnic Assamese has stood for — a deep dislike for all ‘outsiders’, irrespective of religion — also articulated in the Assam accord, the BJP seems to have bucked all anger that it caused.
Much outrage and protests followed the BJP’s decision to bring the bill, with its ally, the Asom Gana Parishad, walking out of the NDA fold. Soon enough, however, the AGP came back, and so did the voters, it seems.
With the bill lapsing as Parliament ended, anger around it dissipated and with the BJP’s ground workers and cadre going easy on mentioning it, the crisis was taken care of.
The bill has, instead, ended up being a gamble that paid off — with it not hurting the party in any form and helping it in the Bengali-Hindu dominated Barak Valley. Here, the BJP ensured a decisive defeat of Congress leader and sitting MP, Sushmita Dev, from Silchar — a seat that has been her family’s stronghold.
Also read: Losing citizenship bill battle has provoked BJP to take polarisation agenda beyond Assam
Brand Modi
Assam may not be a state where one would have traditionally expected a massive pro-BJP sentiment, given the state’s socio-political dynamics, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has towered over much else.
The government’s welfare schemes and Modi’s image of a ‘decisive’ leader resonated on the ground, combined with a diminished Congress leadership, both at the national and state level. While Balakot may not have been as overt an issue in this state as in several others, it did help add to the already prevalent perception of Modi’s ‘strong’ leadership.
The Himanta effect
For the Congress, the single biggest self-goal in the northeast has been to let go of Himanta Biswa Sarma, now a senior cabinet minister in the BJP government in Assam.
Sarma, known for his astute political skills and strategising abilities, has delivered to the BJP what he was brought in for — more than just a foothold in the region.
In Assam, Sarma has been at the forefront of the party’s campaign, planning, and worker management, and is seen more as the face of the party than even Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal.
Also read: BJP sweeps Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi, MP, Assam, Maharashtra, Karnataka & more