Mumbai: Even as Maharashtra continues to account for a bulk of India’s Covid-19 caseload, the number of new cases have nearly halved over the past 15 days and the fatalities, too, are getting fewer.
Government officials and health experts have said that the reasons for this drop in cases and deaths are multifactorial — consequence of targeted testing over the past few months, a large part of the population being already exposed to the virus, its possible weakening, and a gradual unlocking process.
Dr Pradeep Awate, state epidemiologist and surveillance officer, told ThePrint, “We expect this plateau to continue for the next 2-2.5 months. By the second week of November, the numbers will be at their lowest and will stay there for at least 60 days.”
Maharashtra accounts for over 20 per cent of India’s total Covid-19 positive numbers, and about 12 per cent of the country’s new cases, according to data from Monday (2 November) shared by the state government. Fifteen days ago, according to 18 October data, the state’s new Covid-19 cases comprised 16.5 per cent of India’s total new cases.
As of 2 November, Maharashtra recorded a total of 16,83,775 Covid-19 cases and 44,024 deaths. The number of active cases in the state currently are 1,25,109.
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Cases, mortality rate, positivity rate drop
Till 18 October, Maharashtra was adding about 10,000 new Covid-19 cases every day. The number has, however, nosedived over the past fortnight, settling around 5,000-6,000 a day.
The number of Covid-19 positive cases have increased by 97,454 or 6.14 per cent, from 19 October to 2 November. In the same period, there were 2,059 deaths due to the virus and a mortality rate of 2.1 per cent.
In contrast, in the preceding 15 days (from 5 to 18 October), the number of Covid-19 cases had swelled by 1,42,912 or 9.9 per cent and the mortality rate stood at 2.7 per cent. The state had recorded 3,881 deaths in this period.
Maharashtra’s Covid-19 mortality rate has consistently been much higher than the national average. While the country’s overall Covid fatality rate stands at 1.49 per cent — considering numbers since the beginning of the pandemic — the comparable figure for Maharashtra is at 2.61 per cent. The state’s positivity rate has also been notoriously high, at 20 per cent, which is now steadily falling.
Dr Awate said, “The positivity rate has also dropped to about 10 per cent on a daily basis, which is a good trend. The number of tests have dipped too, but there is a very obvious reason for it. We aggressively test high risk contacts of positive patients first. When your daily positives are declining, the number for the high risk contacts to be tested has also dropped.”
From 19 October to 2 November, there were 8,79,121 Covid-19 tests conducted in Maharashtra, a 13.5 per cent slide from the 10,16,312 tests conducted in the preceding 15 days (from 5 to 19 October).
Cities such as Mumbai and Pune, which comprised most of the new cases in Maharashtra, have also been seeing a decline in the daily record. The Mumbai civic body, which was once scrambling to get beds for Covid positive patients, now has 7,817 vacant Covid-19 beds and 561 vacant ICU beds, according to data from the civic body.
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Antibodies, gradual unlock and natural curve of virus
A health department official, who did not wish to be named, said one of the possible reasons for a drop in Covid-19 cases was the gradual reopening of activities by the state government.
“Having said that, a lot more activities are now permitted as part of the state’s ’Mission Begin Again’, and we need to be cautious. Now, the state government is focusing on enforcing the use of masks through punitive measures and aggressively conducting basic health check ups across the state under the ‘My Family, My Responsibility’ programme,” the official added.
The Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi government in Maharashtra has been guarded about opening up economic activities after the nationwide lockdown ended in May. Even now, schools, colleges, places of worship and entertainment avenues such as cinema halls are shut, while the central government has allowed their reopening.
Subhash Salunkhe, a public health expert and technical advisor to the state government on pandemic control, said, “There are multiple reasons for a drop in cases, partially the targeted testing by the state government, partially the gradual unlocking, some part of it is because of the decline in the intensity of the virus and some part, not exactly herd immunity, but the presence of antibodies in a large number of people.”
Serological surveys conducted by Mumbai, Pune as well as Pimpri Chinchwad in Maharashtra have shown that a large section of the population had Covid-19 antibodies.
Salunkhe, however, cautioned that it was too early to call it a decline, and this trend needs to sustain for a few more days.
Even as state Health Minister Rajesh Tope has said that a second wave in Maharashtra was unlikely, experts have warned that cases might spike again in January due to the combined effect of winter, an approaching Diwali, and a lot more people coming into each others’ contact as activities open up.
Avinash Bhondwe, state president for the Indian Medical Association, said the surge in cases this time will be from the non-slum areas and the young working population, between 21 and 49 years.
“Even now, there’s nothing that the state has done that is responsible for the cases to drop. Cases have reduced because every pandemic has a natural curve. The government has now reduced testing, contact tracing, many are not using masks outside and there is no social distancing on the roads. As more people step out for work and other activities, there are no extra precautions that the government is implementing,” Bhondwe said.
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