Geneva: Average global temperatures are forecast to remain near record levels over the next five years, with Arctic temperatures expected to warm faster than other regions, a report by the U.N. weather agency and the UK Met Office said on Thursday.
The annual report, which gives regional predictions for temperatures and rainfall, said annual global mean near-surface temperatures are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
“There’s very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature is continuing to rise,” Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, told Reuters.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments pledged to try to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, beyond which severe climate events are expected to intensify.
2024 record for warmest year seen broken
The report said it is very likely that global mean near-surface temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
It also predicts at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than record-breaking 2024, the first year global temperatures crossed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Temporarily crossing the 1.5°C threshold does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed, Seabrook said, since the target refers to a long-term average over 20 years rather than a single year. However, she warned that the world is increasingly likely to exceed the threshold more often.
“The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly,” Seabrook added.
More severe weather events
Arctic winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere over the next five years are projected to rise at more than 3.5 times the global average, reaching around 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, the report said.
Arctic sea ice is expected to decline further in March over the next five years in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
Arctic warming could also disrupt weather systems and trigger more severe weather events, especially in northern regions, Seabrook said.
The report also forecasts wetter winters across the northern hemisphere over the next five years, including wetter conditions in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel during May-September, while drier weather is expected in the Amazon.
A strong El Nino event is also forecast for this winter and could continue into 2027, potentially pushing global temperatures to new records because of warming in the Pacific Ocean, Seabrook said.
El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that typically lasts between nine and 12 months.
This report is auto-generated from Reuters news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.