New Delhi: Global temperatures are likely to rise over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but it is not too late to bring temperatures down and achieve the goals of the Paris agreements, says a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme.
The report titled “Limiting Overshoot” says that even in an optimistic scenario where all countries stand by national climate plans, peak temperature rise is likely to be 1.8°C. The report highlights that this overshoot cannot be interpreted as “safe or acceptable” and adds that if temperature rise is not controlled soon, there are no “benign scenarios”.
“There are no good outcomes above 1.5°C. Extreme weather, glacier melt, ecosystem loss and sea-level rise will intensify. Some Small Island Developing States and low-lying coastal cities could be partially or completely submerged. Human health, food and water security, cities and infrastructure will come under increasing strain. These impacts will not be distributed equally, and some losses will be irreversible even if global temperatures eventually decline,” wrote Inger Anderson, UNEP executive director in the foreword to the report.
The report recommends that countries focus on minimising the overshoot so that temperatures peak quickly and then eventually decline soon. Above 1.5°C, the risks and impacts of climate change are likely to intensify in ways that are hard to predict. The report says that higher temperatures will destabilise major ice sheets and degrade the Amazon rainforest too.
“Cities and infrastructure will be at greater risk from stronger and longer heatwaves and flooding. Warming oceans, declining oxygen levels and rising acidity will make it harder for marine life and the communities that depend on it to survive,” the report read.
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‘Not acceptable’
By 2050, nearly 14 per cent of global food production is expected to decline with crops not succeeding to adapt to the warming climate. The report also warns of more nutrition-related disease, new pathogens, and a higher demand for energy which will take a toll on all nations.
“This summer’s scorching heat, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead. We must make the overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible. That demands an overshoot of ambition,” said UN Secretary-General Antőnio Guterres in a UNEP press release.
The report says that the first step forward is an immediate and urgent response through emission cuts and measures to protect the most vulnerable communities and ecosystems. Then comes an intense and sustained decarbonisation phase.
“Efforts will need to evolve over the years to address many unknowns, but decisions taken now and in the next few years will determine whether viable options remain to reverse warming towards 1.5°C. So, I call on governments—and on everyone with the power to effect change—to act with urgency and determination. This is not the future we sought,” wrote Anderson.