How Muslims of Bengal withdrew from Mamata, this election

In Murshidabad, Malda, and North Dinajpur, the Hindu votes consolidated for the BJP. But the Muslim votes got split between different parties.

Muslim votes, which solidly went to Mamata earlier, appear to have split between Congress, CPI(M) and, to some extent, Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan Party | ANI File

Kolkata: The BJP’s landslide victory in West Bengal has come on the back of gains in the Muslim-majority constituencies of West Bengal, especially in the three districts of Murshidabad, Malda, and North Dinajpur, through the consolidation of Hindu votes and a split in the Trinamool Congress’s Muslim vote bank against the backdrop of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

Muslim votes in this election appear to have split between the Congress, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and, to some extent, Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP).

The minority community constitutes 50 percent or more of the total population across the three districts. Together, 43 of Bengal’s 294 assembly seats are spread across Murshidabad, Malda, and North Dinajpur.

The BJP, which won just eight of the 43 seats in 2021, has won in 19 this time—a gain of 11 seats. The TMC, meanwhile, was reduced to just 22 seats from the 35 it won in 2021. Besides, the Congress and AJUP won two seats each in Murshidabad, while the CPI(M) won one.

Contrary to what many political analysts believed, the SIR, which saw deletions of approximately 91 lakh voters, did not consolidate Muslim votes behind the TMC. Instead, it got split mainly between the Congress and the CPI(M), in many seats, an analysis of the Election Commission of India’s data shows. Humayun Kabir’s AJUP also cut into or damaged TMC’s Muslim votes in some of the seats in Murshidabad district. Meanwhile, in Hindu-dominated seats in these districts, the Hindu votes consolidated behind the BJP.

For instance, in Raninagar assembly constituency in Murshidabad district, while the Congress won with 79,423 votes, the TMC came a close second with 76,722 votes, and the CPI(M) came third with 48,587 votes, clearly indicating a split in the Muslim votes. The TMC had won the seat in 2021.

In Nabagram—a constituency dominated by Hindus in Murshidabad—the BJP won with 78,739 votes. The TMC was a close second with 72,820 votes, and the Congress came third with 50,144 votes. The TMC had won the seat in 2021.

Again, in Murshidabad’s Khargram, BJP’s Mitali Mal won with 77,748 votes. The TMC came second with 68,415 votes, while the CPI(M) was placed in the third position, with 41,944 votes.

In Murshidabad’s Kandi constituency, where 76 percent of the population is Hindu, the BJP won with 73,355 votes. The TMC got 63,020 votes, and the Congress came third with 31,160 votes. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM got 22,976 votes.

A similar consolidation of Hindu votes and split in Muslim votes occurred in Malda and North Dinajpur, as the BJP gained across the 43 seats in a big way.

According to the 2011 Census, West Bengal has over 2.4 crore Muslims, accounting for 27 percent of its 9 crore population. The community has been reported to have been largely voting for the Trinamool since the fall of the Left government in 2011 after a 34-year rule.

In 2021, the election was marked by sharp polarisation because of the anti-National Register of Citizens and Citizenship Amendment Act protests, with Muslims voting in large numbers for the TMC. The party in that election won 35 of the 43 seats in Murshidabad, Malda, and Uttar Dinajpur.

How districts with significant Muslim populations fared

According to the Election Commission of India, the BJP won nine of the 22 seats in Murshidabad district, up from the two seats it won in the last assembly election in 2021.

Murshidabad district has one of the highest Muslim populations in West Bengal, accounting for 66.3 percent of the state’s population, according to the 2011 Census.

In 2021, the TMC won 20 seats in the district, but in this election, it has been reduced to nine.

The district has seen nearly 4.55 lakh deletions of voters—on an average, 20,668 voters from each constituency—in the SIR.

The SIR deletions ended up dealing a big blow to the TMC’s final vote count.

Similarly, the BJP won six of the 12 seats in Malda—where Muslims account for 51.3 percent of a 39 lakh-strong population—while the TMC won eight seats. In the 2021 election, the TMC had won eight seats, while the BJP had won four.

In Malda, 2.39 lakh names were found ineligible in the SIR exercise. On average, 19,948 names have been deleted in each of the 12 assembly constituencies.

In Uttar Dinajpur—where Muslims account for 49.9 percent of the population—four of the nine assembly constituencies went to the BJP. The TMC managed to win in five seats. In 2021, the TMC won seven while the BJP won two.

Uttar Dinajpur has seen 1.76 lakh names deleted from the electoral rolls.

In addition to these, the BJP also made significant gains in South 24 Paraganas and Birbhum, where, according to the 2011 Census, Muslims account for around 35 percent of the population. TMC had won 40 seats in these two districts in 2021 while the BJP had won just one seat in Birbhum. The numbers have significantly reversed this time in favour of the BJP.

Besides, the BJP and TMC, in the Bhangar constituency of South 24 Parganas, Md Nawsad Siddique of All India Secular Front won for the second consecutive time.

Together, these five districts account for 85 seats in the state.

(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)