New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is heading for a stupendous victory in the Assam assembly elections, leading in 98 constituencies, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 64 in the 126-member assembly, at 11.30 am Monday. The opposition Congress was leading in 25 constituencies while ally Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dal was leading in 1 seat.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) looks set to better its 2021 tally of 75 seats with 44.51 percent votes. The BJP on its own was leading in 79 seats while the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF)—two other NDA constituents in the state—were leading in 9 and 10 seats, respectively.
The Assam election was Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s show all the way, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other national leaders playing only a supporting role. A third consecutive victory for the BJP in Assam would firmly establish Sarma as one of the party’s frontline national leaders and key poll strategists.
Sarma had played a key role in the 2016 assembly election, even though he wasn’t the party’s face then. The BJP won the next elections with Sarma as its popular face. The blend of freebies and doles in various forms and visible infrastructure development has given him a cult status in Assam.
While his diatribe against “miyas” or Bengali Muslims earned him severe flak from several quarters, the poll results suggest that the strategy did pay off, polarising the Hindus in a state with 34 percent Muslim population, according to the 2011 Census, and also crystallising public sentiment against illegal immigration.
The 2023 delimitation exercise, which resulted in 35 Muslim-dominated constituencies shrinking to 23, also seemed to have worked in the NDA’s favour.
As the counting was in progress Monday, the BJP seemed poised to better its 2021 performance when it had won 60 seats with 33.21 percent votes. The AGP and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) were the other NDA constituents in that election.
Sarma has also proved to be a deft political strategist, dumping and making allies according to political convenience. The BPF, which was part of the Congress-led alliance, Mahajot, in 2021, is back into the NDA fold now. The CM renewed the alliance after the BPF won elections to the Bodoland Territorial Council, an autonomous district council, last September.
This election, the BJP contested on 89 seats while the AGP and BPF contested on 26 and 11 seats, respectively. Rebuffed by the BJP, the UPPL contested alone on 17 seats.
The Congress, meanwhile, led a six-party alliance this year, the Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASM), that includes Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), the Communist Party of India (Marxist), CPI (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation, and All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC). The Congress contested on 99 seats, leaving the remaining 27 for its allies. There were friendly contests in several constituencies.
In the 2021 election, the Congress had led an eight-party alliance, Mahajot, which won 50 seats with 43.68 percent votes. Of these, the Congress won 29 with 29.67 percent votes. While the Mahajot won 25 seats less than the NDA, the difference in voteshares of the two alliances was less than one percentage point.
The opposition alliance in 2021 included two important parties—the BPF and Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). The BPF is an NDA constituent this year while the AIUDF is contesting alone after the Congress refused to ally with it. On Monday, the AIUDF was leading in 2 constituencies at 11.30 am, signally a sharp dip in its fortune as it had won 16 seats in the 2021 polls.
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Sarma has work cut out
As Sarma prepares for a second consecutive term as CM, he is expected to double down on issues that have propelled him to power again. Evicting encroachers from 1.6 lakh bighas of land was one of the biggest talking points of the BJP in its campaign.
In the 2026 Sankalp Patra or manifesto, the BJP has promised to free “every inch of land” from encroachment by illegal immigrants. It has also promised to implement the Immigrants (Expulsion from Assam) Act, 1950, to expedite the process of detection and pushback of these immigrants.
The BJP has also promised to implement the Uniform Civil Code, bring a law to “end the menace of Love Jihad” and take firm measures to “tackle the menace of Land Jihad”. CM Sharma’s second term is, therefore, expected to be eventful and often controversial.
For the beneficiaries of his welfare schemes and freebie, his second term has more to offer—monthly assistance under Orunodoi to be increased to Rs 3,000 from the current Rs 1,250 in a phased manner, seed money for self-employment of women to go up to Rs 25,000, annual support of Rs 11,000 to small and marginal farmers, financial assistance of up to Rs 5 lakh to 10 lakh youth, and a lot more for different sections of the people.
The BJP has also promised an expansive development agenda for CM Sarma’s second term—investment of up to Rs 5 lakh crore in roadways, waterways, railways and airways to position Assam as India’s Eastern Gateway, investment of Rs 18,000 crore to make Assam flood-free, and doubling the state’s economy to $150 billion by 2031 and $300 billion by 2036, among many others.
Sarma obviously has his work cut out as he prepares to take oath for the second time as CM.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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