New Delhi: India’s dependence on Russian crude continued to deepen in July despite fresh geopolitical disruptions stretching from Russia to the Middle East, with Indian refiners continuing to favour Russian barrels over alternative supplies.
According to data shared by trade intelligence firm Kpler with ThePrint, India imported a record 2.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) of Russian crude in July, surpassing the previous high of around 2.7 mbpd recorded in June.
Russian crude accounted for nearly 55 percent of India’s total crude imports of around 5 mbpd in July 2026, further cementing Moscow’s position as India’s largest oil supplier.
The record imports come even as repeated Ukrainian drone attacks continue to target Russian refineries and export infrastructure, while renewed Houthi threats in the Red Sea have created fresh uncertainty over crude shipments from Saudi Arabia.
According to energy analysts, the twin disruptions have made Russian crude even more attractive for Indian refiners.
“Indian refiners still prefer slightly cheaper Russian barrels to more expensive alternatives, particularly at a time when disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are tightening the market for medium-sour crude,” Natalia Katona, Abu Dhabi-based commodity analyst at Oilprice.com, told ThePrint.
Russian crude continues to dominate
The latest import trend suggests that Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s Sheskharis terminal in the Black Sea have so far failed to significantly dent Russian crude exports.
Russian supplies to India are expected to remain broadly in the 2.4-2.6 mbpd range over the coming months. In fact, import volume could surpass in August, as cargoes booked when Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries were at their worst will start arriving in India.
Indian refiners have already shifted to purchasing Russian crude for September deliveries after August cargoes were fully sold.
According to Katona, Russia’s refining system is unlikely to return to full capacity anytime soon as repairs from drone strikes remain incomplete and fresh attacks continue. However, the worst phase of domestic fuel shortages appears to have passed, reducing the likelihood of any sharp cut in crude exports.
Nikhil Dubey, lead analyst for oil markets at Kpler, said Russian crude continues to enjoy structural advantages over competing grades.
Although discounts on Russia’s flagship Urals crude have narrowed in recent months, he said the collapse of the US-Iran truce and disruptions affecting Saudi shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have helped sustain the commercial appeal of Russian barrels.
Russian crude also remains a better fit for Indian refineries over most alternatives as almost every major refinery in the country can process Russian grades without significant operational changes.
Saudi shipments recover, but risks remain
Saudi crude imports rebounded in July as cargoes stranded during the earlier regional tensions reached Indian ports after the brief US-Iran truce provided a window for shipments to resume.
“Imports from Saudi Arabia picked up in July and are trailing their highest levels in the last three months as stranded cargoes found opportunities to escape during the brief US-Iran truce period. However, going forward, the Houthi risk is real and will likely hamper import volumes coming from Saudi Arabia,” Dubey told ThePrint.
Katona, however, said the July figures may not yet reflect the full impact of the Houthi blockade announced on 20 July.
Saudi crude imports rose to around 4,14,000 bpd in July from 2,90,000 bpd in June but no India-bound Saudi tanker loaded after the blockade has reached Indian ports, she said.
According to Katona, shipping data suggests Saudi cargoes bound for India are continuing to sail through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait rather than taking the longer route through Egypt’s SUMED pipeline (Red Sea to Mediterranean Sea pipeline) and around the Cape of Good Hope, as the alternatives are not economical for Aframax tankers.
“This raises the possibility that India is trying to secure an understanding with the Houthis similar to the one China appears to have reached, though that remains a theory rather than a confirmed development,” Katona said.
Why the Red Sea matters to India
The renewed uncertainty in the Red Sea comes just weeks after global markets were impacted by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz when Iran launched attacks on three merchant vessels in the strait in the first week of June, thereby inviting retaliatory actions from the US.
According to Kpler, around 6-7 mbpd of crude transits the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Nearly half of these volumes comprise Saudi crude loaded from Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast after bypassing Hormuz through the kingdom’s East-West pipeline.
A significant portion of the remaining cargoes consists of Russian crude bound for India. However, Russian barrels may continue to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as the Houthis have said their threat is primarily aimed at vessels using Saudi ports.
Analysts say any prolonged disruption in the Red Sea is unlikely to halt supplies altogether for India due to alternative routes but it would make crude significantly more expensive as a result of longer voyages.
The tankers forced to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would have to sail around the Cape of Good Hope, which would add to the sailing days from around 8 earlier to more than 30, push up freight charges, increase war-risk insurance premiums and the overall landed cost of crude for Indian refiners.
Even vessels that continue through the Red Sea are likely to face higher insurance costs because of the high-risk environment.
(Edited by Viny Mishra)
Also read: With crude at $100 again, Russian supplies may cushion India, but cost pressures set to mount