New Delhi: The 22nd summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) will be held Tuesday amid growing concerns in India about China’s bid to strengthen its influence in Central Asia as Russia is distracted by its war with Ukraine.
The virtual summit, which is being hosted by India, comes days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded his milestone state visit to the US.
India, which became an SCO member in 2017, currently holds the rotating presidency of the economic and security organisation, the world’s largest in terms of its geographical size and population.
In attendance at the meeting will be Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif, apart from the leaders of the four other permanent members, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
This will be Putin’s first appearance at an international summit since the Wagner mutiny last month.
Jabin T. Jacob, Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations and Governance Studies at Shiv Nadar University, said the way Putin is perceived by SCO member states is likely to change in light of the Wagner episode.
“The SCO has a very strong structure and setting in place, which does not allow discussions on domestic politics or let it influence talks on various issues in the forum,” he said. “However, the way Xi Jinping or Central Asian leaders look at Putin will change, he will seem weaker.”
The SCO is a regional intergovernmental organisation often perceived as an “eastern counterbalance” to NATO. Apart from its eight member states, the SCO has Iran, Belarus and Mongolia as observer states. While Turkmenistan is not a member due to its policy of ‘positive neutrality’, it is a permanent invitee to SCO meets.
Iran is expected to be included as a member state this year and Belarus in 2024. Belarus President Alexandr Lukashenko will be attending the virtual summit too.
This is India’s first chairmanship of the SCO after joining the organisation in 2005 as an observer state and later becoming a permanent member.
As an SCO member, New Delhi has campaigned for increasing collaboration on regional security, defence, combating terrorism and drug trade, among other issues.
“This SCO Summit can be seen as a precursor to the G20 Summit in September,” said Anil Trigunayat, former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta. “This meeting gives India the chance to ensure that all G20 members, especially China, Russia among others, attend the summit in New Delhi later this year.”
India also currently holds the presidency of G20.
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What’s on the agenda?
While the SCO’s fundamental agenda focuses on Eurasian stability, inclusive connectivity and counter-terrorism, this year’s summit has the theme ‘Towards a SECURE SCO’.
The acronym ‘SECURE — coined by PM Modi at the 2018 SCO Summit in Qingdao, China — stands for security, economy and trade, connectivity, unity, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and environment.
“The key issues at the SCO will remain security and expansion. Not just energy and food security, which were impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war, but also countering terrorism, in which Pakistan, an SCO member, is involved,” said Trigunayat. “Through this forum, India has been conducting counter-terrorism exercises with member states.”
In its year-long SCO presidency, India has hosted 134 meetings and events, including 14 ministerial-level meetings.
The SCO is also a significant forum to discuss the situation in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, with several of its neighbours — including Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — being a part of the forum. The Taliban dispensation in Afghanistan has not been recognised by any country.
“While there is a recognition that talking to the Taliban will be important, Kyrgyzstan is perhaps the closest to recognising the Taliban and their representatives, the other countries are not so keen,” said Jacob.
Virtual meet
The MEA had announced last month that India will be hosting the SCO Summit virtually, after taking various factors into consideration.
Numerous international summits have been held virtually in recent years, such as the first I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-US) last year.
No formal reason was given by the central government for the decision, but speculation suggests factors such as Putin’s inability to leave Russia while Ukraine launches major counter-offensive measures and Xi’s prior lack of response on the country’s participation.
Said Jacob, “Hosting the SCO meet virtually was a safe way out for India, due to the many uncertainties that were present in holding the summit in person. However, Central Asian leaders are definitely disappointed with the summit being virtual.”
While virtual summits allow for leaders to participate without the complications and uncertainties that come with an in-person meeting, they remove the possibility of bilaterals that usually occur on the sidelines of such summits.
MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi noted last month that the virtual format of the SCO Summit meant that there would be no scope for any bilateral meetings.
Jacob said “many opportunities for backchannel talks, bilaterals, which are quite useful, are lost due to the summit being virtual”.
“In such cases, the outcome of the meeting is usually suboptimal,” he added.
New members
Iran will Tuesday become a permanent member after completing a two-year-long procedure of entry. The SCO will be the first multilateral organisation the country has joined since the Islamic revolution in 1979. The aim is to bring an end to the country’s isolation in the international sphere.
Iran’s SCO membership is expected to boost its influence in the region, while also strengthening the organisation’s position in West Asia.
“There has been a rapprochement between Iran and numerous countries including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, among others. This makes Iran joining the SCO very important for India, Russia and China, who are all looking at accessing the region and ensuring its stability,” said Trigunayat. “For India, Iran also acts as an important point of connectivity through the Chabahar port, filling a much-needed gap.”
Avinash Godbole, an associate professor at Jindal School of Liberal Arts and Humanities, noted that “Central Asia is a predominantly Sunni Muslim dominant region”.
“Iran will be the first Shia country to join the SCO. Besides, it has its own views on oil, Afghanistan, sanctions and trade embargos, Gulf security, which will reflect gradually.”
Belarus, a close Russian ally, is also in the process of becoming a permanent member and will join the organisation in 2024.
At the SCO Foreign Ministers’ meet in Goa this May, memoranda were signed to make Kuwait, Maldives, Myanmar, and the UAE dialogue partners in the organisation. Bahrain is also in the final stage of gaining this status.
Dialogue-partner status allows countries to take part in specialised intra-SCO events at the invitation of member states.
A quote was incorrectly attributed to Gunjan Singh, an assistant professor at Jindal Global Law School. That has now been corrected. This report has also been updated with additional information
(Edited by Sunanda Ranjan)
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