Since President Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces and ousted from office on Jan. 3, Venezuela has entered a fast-changing and uncertain phase shaped heavily by Washington. Relations between the US and Venezuela have shifted from isolation to direct engagement: The Trump administration has restored diplomatic ties and is working with interim President Delcy Rodríguez. But that relationship is highly conditional. The US is using sanctions relief, access to global finance and control over oil revenues as leverage to steer policy and shape what comes next.
For ordinary Venezuelans, meanwhile, the impact of the regime change has been limited. Most still face high prices, weak incomes and deteriorating living conditions.
How have US-Venezuela relations shifted since Maduro’s ouster?
Relations between the two countries have changed drastically, from broken to renewed. For years, Washington refused to recognize Maduro as president after his disputed reelection in 2018, instead backing opposition leader Juan Guaidó. The US cut diplomatic ties, including shutting its embassy in Caracas in 2019.
That posture has now been reversed. The Trump administration has reestablished diplomatic relations, reopened its embassy, and engaged in direct talks with Venezuela’s new leadership under Rodríguez. High-level US officials are visiting Caracas again, and both sides are openly coordinating on economic recovery and political transition — something that would have been unthinkable just months ago.
President Donald Trump has said Rodríguez is “doing a great job” and “working with US representatives very well” as cooperation deepens. He also issued a threat. “If she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,” Trump said in January.
How is the US exerting control over Rodríguez’s government?
The US is exerting control through a system of conditional recognition and economic leverage. Sanctions policy is the clearest tool of that control. Washington has begun easing some restrictions, such as allowing financial institutions and others to conduct business with Venezuela’s central bank and lifting sanctions on certain state entities such as oil producer Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA). However, these allowances are temporary and tightly regulated through US Treasury licenses. That means the Rodríguez government’s ability to access international banking services, draw on state assets held outside Venezuela, attract investment, or expand oil production remains contingent on US authorization.
More broadly, analysts and opposition figures say reforms and even cabinet moves are being carried out under US pressure. Opposition leader María Corina Machado argues that authorities are “following the instructions that come from the US.” By selectively loosening or tightening constraints — and tying economic relief to political steps such as changes in senior leadership and legal reforms intended to encourage investment — Washington is effectively shaping policy.
US officials have also made clear they intend to shape the political endgame. The US says the transition should culminate in elections under new electoral authorities, a signal that the timing and conditions for a vote will be set in coordination with Washington.
Is the US still targeting suspected drug traffickers off the coast of Venezuela?
The US is still actively targeting suspected drug traffickers in the Caribbean Sea, including off the coast of Venezuela, and in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The military campaign has continued unabated since Maduro’s capture. The most recent strikes were carried out between April 25 and 26 in the Eastern Pacific, killing five people. The latest strike in the Caribbean happened April 20, killing three.
Since the campaign began in September 2025, US forces have conducted dozens of strikes, and the death toll is now more than 180 people. The operations have continued even as the US focuses military resources elsewhere.
What’s going on with Venezuela’s oil industry?
By the end of Maduro’s presidency, Venezuela’s oil industry had declined in output by 65% compared to 2013, his first year in office. The country, and the Trump administration, are trying to reverse that decline. The Iran war has caused an unprecedented global supply crisis, and a major increase in Venezuelan oil on the market would be well-timed. Caracas and Washington are closely engaged in a process to unlock the country’s riches under the White House’s three-phase plan: stabilization, recovery and transition.
Rodríguez has succeeded in enacting new hydrocarbons and mining laws that favor investors and ditch decades of tight state controls. The US Treasury is easing sanctions on PDVSA and expanding licenses for more US and international firms to do business with the state-owned company.
Oil majors that did not leave the country during its worst years of decay — including the US’s Chevron Corp., Italy’s Eni SpA and Spain’s Repsol SA — have expanded contracts and their footprint. High-ranking US officials, including US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, as well as dozens of companies, have rushed to Caracas to look into investment opportunities in gas and oil and gauge conditions under the new legal framework.
Washington has kept close oversight of the process while controlling the country’s oil revenues, which it’s holding in US Treasury accounts. It had allowed around $3 billion to flow into the economy as of mid-April and has promised independent audits run by professional services firm KPMG LLC will be published.
Crude and gas production has not ramped up yet, and oil contracts signed before Trump’s plan took effect have not been migrated to the new legal framework. Experts predict international investment will take a while to begin in earnest. Still, Venezuelan oil exports hit a 6-year high after India restarted imports, and the industry is poised to increase production by nearly 1 million barrels of crude a day over the next decade, according to Rystad Energy.
Is Venezuela reintegrating into the global financial system?
Yes. The US eased a seven-year sanction on the central bank and other state banking institutions on April 14, effectively reinserting Venezuela into the world financial system. Venezuelan authorities can now transact and regain control over assets it was blocked from accessing, such as roughly 30 tons of Venezuelan gold held at the Bank of England. Member countries of the International Monetary Fund followed this change by backing the return of Venezuela to the institution, and its Director, Kristalina Georgieva, held a call with Caracas to discuss “next steps” in engagement.
The steps have bolstered long-dormant hopes for a debt restructuring. Hedge funds are visiting Caracas and creditors are already holding talks with the US officials on their potential role in the nation’s economic recovery. Venezuelan bonds have posted some of the best gains in emerging markets this year.
What’s changed for the people of Venezuela?
For ordinary Venezuelans, little has changed. Most households report no improvement in their economic situation and many struggle to afford essentials. Daily life still revolves around stretching limited incomes to cover basic needs, and public services are often unreliable. For many, conditions have actually worsened: Prices continue to rise rapidly and the bolivar continues to lose value. Though Venezuela in April more than doubled the minimum monthly wage to $240, wages remain extremely low compared to the nation’s rising cost of living.
While there is some cautious optimism about a future recovery, it has yet to translate into any tangible relief. Frustration is building, especially among workers and pensioners, and protests over wages and living conditions have become more frequent. For now, despite political shifts and promises of change, the reality for most Venezuelans is largely the same: high prices, stagnant incomes, and no meaningful improvement in their day-to-day lives.
Disclaimer: This report is auto generated from the Bloomberg news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.