It was well-known that Trump had more haters than fans across the world. Now we have the evidence of his party’s midterms whitewash that even in the US, his support has collapsed. This includes regions he swept in the presidential elections two years ago.
The best description for it is the line made immortal by actor Salman Khan when he reached out, on 23 July, to the fasting Sonam Wangchuk.
“Sonam, it’s done bro,” he’d said. It’s since then been a part of our political lexicon, mostly used by the Opposition, beginning with Rahul Gandhi, for Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.
Can you say the same thing to Donald Trump now? ‘Donald, it’s done bro…’ You can, given the defeat his party has suffered under his watch, losing both the Senate and the House “bigly” to use one of his favourite old words to celebrate his own successes. But you had better also pause and think twice. His haters across the world would like to believe it’s all over for him. But the American system is different.
A lame-duck President in his final term also has enormous executive powers including to sign treaties, launch wars or pull back from them. I will give you five examples. And then some points on what this setback could mean for India specifically, and for the world, especially the Middle East and Indo-Pacific in general.
Before that, we need to understand what exactly a lame-duck President is in the American system. The most precise definition that I have read today comes from an article in Foreign Affairs magazine written by Daniel Drezner and Elizabeth Saunders. The article is headlined ‘The Dangers of a Lame-Duck Trump: How Far Will He Go to Make Peace—and War?’
They say they define a President as a lame-duck “when they no longer need to contend with elections, either presidential or mid-terms”. For a one-term President who loses a re-election, this period is just a few months. This is until the new President is chosen and sworn in. For a second-term President like Trump, it can last two years. It can be a very painful two years.
There are examples of what a lame-duck President can do. History tells us that they tend to focus on foreign policy as that allows the House and the Senate the least influence. Check out the following:
- Bill Clinton negotiated and nearly clinched a two-state deal between Israel and Palestine at the end of his second term.
- After losing the mid-terms in 2014, Barack Obama, again a double lame-duck like Trump is now (not up for re-election), sealed the nuclear deal with Iran and normalised with Cuba.
- George H. W. Bush sent forces into Somalia to prevent a famine after losing the 1992 presidential election to Bill Clinton.
- Hi son George W. Bush pushed a lot more troops into Iraq in 2007 after a devastating mid-term election in his second term.
None of these endured in the end. The Palestinian deal was never consummated, Trump repealed the nuclear deal with Iran, Iraq and Somalia never stabilised. The fact, however, is that the lame-duck Presidents still had enormous powers. Trump, if he so wished, could launch a larger attack on Iran, the Houthis or even a move into Cuba.
He could also try to cut a deal with Putin, probably with Xi Jinping’s help at a tripartite summit to mark the abandonment of Ukraine and Taiwan. It is most likely that his successor would reverse those. My point is simply to underline the powers Trump would still have.
The region watching this most closely and anxiously is West Asia. Will this Trump be more interventionist or less, given that the Iran war has played a key role in this defeat. Trump admitted as much to the Wall Street Journal but said he does not regret the war at all. The Iranians, while enjoying his defeat, would also be thinking about how this will change him. This is complicated further for them by the uncertainty over Netanyahu’s future in Israel.
The Saudis, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain will be looking at this with great anxiety. Whether Trump chooses to resume the war, or walk away from West Asia declaring victory, they will be hung out to dry, or to deal with Iran on their own. Unlike Israel, they can’t even defend themselves.
Europe will have some similar concerns. An emboldened Putin can press harder into Ukraine, in anticipation of Trump reaching out for a larger US-Russia deal, probably even involving China. For Europe, while some say time has come to review its recent tilt towards strategic autonomy, a smarter thing would be to stay the course.
For India, I would list six points:
- If Trump is now defeated, frustrated and distracted, it might mean his focus on our region fades. That would be the best outcome. India then gets a couple of years building its economy and, more importantly, defences.
- Staying with strategic issues, a fresh outreach to China from a weakened Trump in search of a legacy win, might work to India’s detriment. That will need close watching.
- Will he try an India-Pakistan Kashmir resolution for that final legacy and a Nobel Prize pitch? Looks unlikely. He may be better off trying that in Sudan where both outside forces are his allies, Saudi Arabia and UAE. And while they have competition, they aren’t enemies like India and Pakistan.
- If he goes into heavy foreign policy mode and attacks Iran, lights up West Asia, it will have worrying consequences for India. That space needs close watching.
- Defence ties with the US will remain unaffected. Strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific will also hold. Some of India’s planned purchases, especially the new lot of P-8Is for the Navy will remain on track.
- With the Congress and the Senate lost so comprehensively, there will be some check in tariff unilateralism. To that extent, India’s policy of holding back on signing the trade deal was wise. Trump knows that his tariff obsession led to inflation as these were paid ultimately by his own consumers. Whether this makes him see the light, we don’t know. There’s no evidence he cares what happens to his party in 2029. But his executive powers to levy tariffs will now be diluted. Whether the Congress can make him reverse or slow down his action on H1B visas, vital for India, is early to say. But the tech industry has lobbying power, and now anti-Trump numbers on Capitol Hill will all help.
- And seventh, India will get some negotiating space, a breather. But a punch-drunk Trump doesn’t mean a friendlier America. If anything, his unpredictability will become an even greater concern. Strategically and economically it’s a mixed bag for India, if leaning on the positive. The world is headed for two years of much greater uncertainty.
Also Read: Trump brings the Age of Humiliation for friends. Modi needs stoicism abroad, humility at home
Ab Trump Saheb aur nuksaan nahin karenge. US voters have knocked the stuffing out of him. He knows that the tariffs and much more the Iran war have pushed up inflation, delivered this personal rebuke. He WAS on the ballot.