New Delhi: The Middle East is in chaos as the conflict between Israel and Hamas enters its second month, with no end in sight.
The confrontation, which started on 7 October with a surprise attack on Israel by terror group Hamas, has involved various regional actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The global powers of the US and Russia are also competing for influence and leverage in this volatile situation.
Foreign policy experts ThePrint spoke to observe how the Middle East is a new battleground for the US and Russia.
While US State Secretary Antony Blinken reportedly met Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted a Hamas delegation in Moscow on 26 October.
According to Sanjay Kumar Pandey, a professor with the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, “Putin is using the Israel-Hamas conflict to question the US — from pointing out its double standards on human rights to its failed Middle East policy.”
On the other hand, the US is using the Middle East to establish deterrence against Russia, Khinvraj Jangid, associate professor and director, Centre for Israel Studies, OP Jindal Global University, told ThePrint.
Also Read: Who are Houthis, why Iran is arming them & what this means for Israel
The US vs Russia
Last week, Russian President Putin in a televised speech blamed the US for the Israel-Hamas conflict, calling Washington and its “satellites” “the main beneficiaries of world instability”.
“Who is organising the deadly chaos and who benefits from it today, in my opinion, has already become obvious… It is the current ruling elites of the US and their satellites who are the main beneficiaries of world instability,” Putin reportedly asserted.
The US, last month, voted against a landslide UNGA resolution that called for a “humanitarian truce” in the conflict, as it did not condemn Hamas. India, along with 42 others, abstained from voting.
The US has also repeatedly opposed a ceasefire but sought humanitarian corridor for essential supplies and relocation of civilians, with Blinken asserting that a ceasefire would “allow Hamas to regroup in Gaza”.
Putin earlier had also blamed the US for the unrest in the region, saying it was “a direct result” of Washington’s failed Middle East policy, referring to the Abraham Accords.
Bahrain, one of the signatories of the accords, froze ties with Israel last week.
“Putin hopes the US shifting its focus towards supporting Israel may result in less aid to Ukraine,” Pandey told ThePrint.
Putin is also trying to cast doubt on the West’s advanced intelligence, technology and weapons in Israel, Pandey explained, adding that Israel’s intelligence failure in anticipating and responding to Hamas’ attacks in the early days is also reflective of the West.
However, the US is using the Middle East as a means of cutting off the Russian energy monopoly, said Jangid. “The India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) is Washington’s means to minimise Russia’s leverage and acts as a deterrent against Russian and Chinese aggression,” he added.
Therefore, the normalisation of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains essential for the Biden administration, said Jangid.
While Saudi Arabia paused talks with Israel roughly a week into the conflict, a White House statement on a call between US President Joe Biden and Saudi Arabia leader Mohammed bin Salman indicated that talks may resume after the conflict ends.
“They also affirmed the importance of working towards a sustainable peace between Israelis and Palestinians as soon as the crisis subsides, building on the work that was already underway between Saudi Arabia and the United States over recent months,” the statement issued on 24 October added.
Jangid explained that as China, Russia and Iran move closer together, the US does not want to delay normalising ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
“While Israel didn’t do much to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia and this was primarily pushed by the US, Israel is too important of an ally to be kept outside,” he said.
“Using the IMEEC as an alternative channel for transporting energy to Europe and more, the US is using economic tactics to tame Russia’s irresponsible behaviour in Ukraine rather than military tactics,” he added.
Also Read: Iran foreign minister writes to BRICS members, urges intervention in ‘dire’ Gaza situation
Where is this conflict headed?
In the past month, roughly 1,400 Israelis and more than 10,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have reportedly been killed in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
While many fear an Iran-backed spillover of the conflict in other parts of the Middle East such as Syria, Lebanon and more, experts said this is unlikely.
“There are two factors which indicate that this conflict is unlikely to spread. First, Iran backed Hezbollah primarily to deter Israel from attacking its nuclear ambitions. Confronted by Israeli nuclear hegemony, Hezbollah is Iran’s biggest asset. Thus, its capabilities will not be wasted by supporting Hamas”, Jangid explained.
Hezbollah chief Syed Hassan Nasrallah Friday asserted that Hamas’ 7 October attack was “100 percent Palestinian in terms of both decision and execution,” and the Lebanese militant group did not play any role in the attack.
Kabir Taneja, Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) said, “The Iranians don’t want an uncontrolled regional spiral of conflict. Even while propping up militias, they can only be controlled to a certain extent.”
“The US’ heavy movement in the Mediterranean Sea in the early days of the conflict also deterred Iran. Iran doesn’t have any direct dispute with Israel and only used an anti-Zionist agenda to attack the US,” said Jangid.
According to a CNN report, the US has deployed roughly 1,200 US military members to the Middle East, alongside thousands of others aboard two Navy carrier strike groups and a Marine Expeditionary Unit.
While there might not be a spillover of the conflict, the violence is unlikely to end in the near future. According to the experts, Israeli military operations will continue over the next two months, while targeted attacks within Gaza City, primarily to destroy Hamas headquarters and tunnel systems, will be ramped up in the next few days.
Israel has so far rejected all suggestions for a ceasefire in the conflict, both from its strong ally US as well as Arab countries, such as Jordan and Egypt.
According to the Israeli Army, 224 people have been held hostage by Hamas. So far, the group has released four hostages, including an American-Israeli mother and daughter, and two elderly Israeli women, in a deal brokered by Qatar.
Divisions within Netanyahu’s government
Roughly a week after the 7 October attacks, Netanyahu and opposition National Unity leader Benny Gantz formed a temporary five-member war cabinet & a “unity government” to make crucial decisions regarding war operations, orders for military actions, exit strategies and more.
One of the many reasons for the formation of the war cabinet was to reduce the role of Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious allies and instead include members with extensive military backgrounds.
However, divisions have begun to appear within this cabinet.
After Netanyahu last week reportedly attempted to absolve himself of responsibility for the delayed response to the 7 October attacks, numerous Israeli politicians, including cabinet member Gantz, criticised the statement and demanded an apology.
Netanyahu, on social media platform ‘X’ (formerly Twitter), posted that he was never “warned of war intentions on the part of Hamas” and accused intelligence chiefs of reassuring him “time and time again” that the group had been “deterred.”
In response, Gantz along with various leaders demanded he retract the statement, asserting “When we are at war, our leaders need to show responsibility.”
Following this, the Israeli PM immediately deleted the statement and issued an apology.
The Israeli leader reportedly also faced angry protests outside his residence Sunday calling for an immediate release of hostages as well as his arrest and resignation.
According to Taneja, Netanyahu “remains on a weak pedestal with only the military operation as a constant”.
“After 7 October, Israel united behind their Army, not their leader. Domestic politics are against Netanyahu, he will be eventually removed,” noted Jangid.
“He will be able to save face if he can rescue all the hostages. But, until the military operation continues, the complexity of the situation will keep him in power,” he added.
(Edited by Richa Mishra)
Also Read: Netanyahu suspends Heritage Minister Amihai Eliyahu after he says nuclear bomb on Gaza ‘an option’