Baghpat: Smoking beedi on a cot in the courtyard of his house in Muslim-dominated Idrishpur village in Uttar Pradesh’s Baghpat Lok Sabha constituency, 56-year-old Mohammad Anees is feeling betrayed. “We have always voted for the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), but this time we will go with the INDIA alliance,” he told ThePrint.
Anees, a Jat Muslim, is one among many from his community in Baghpat who find it hard to believe that the RLD has joined hands with the BJP for the general election.
“This was not expected from (RLD chief) Jayant (Chaudhary). We remained with the RLD even in difficult times. The brotherhood between Muslims and Jats was the legacy of (Jayant’s grandfather) Chaudhary Charan Singh. But Jayant has finished everything. How long will we follow him?” asked Anees. His village has around 3,500 voters.
The RLD-BJP alliance has deepened the rift between Muslims and Jats in Baghpat, which is set to vote Friday in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections.
Founded by Jayant’s father the late Ajit Singh, RLD counts Jats as its core voters. Baghpat is estimated to have 28 percent Muslim population, and Muslims and Jats together form more than 50 percent of the electorate. Both communities have therefore influenced the outcome in this seat since the time of Charan Singh, former prime minister and former chief minister of Uttar Pradesh.
Chaudhary Samuddin Tomar, 71, another Jat Muslim from Baraut tehsil in Baghpat, said Charan Singh always kept the Jats and Muslims together. “Both the communities lived with great love. But distance between the two started emerging when Ajit Singh was alive and then Jayant increased the rift by joining hands with the BJP. We have no option other than voting for the INDIA alliance (candidate),” he told ThePrint.
Tarabuddin, 31, echoed the sentiment, blaming the BJP. “The BJP created a rift between Jats and Muslims, and by bringing Jayant into its fold, it has widened the rift. We have always been voters of the RLD but we cannot stand with people who go with the BJP. We are seeking change now.”
Charan Singh was MP from Baghpat thrice while Ajit Singh was elected from the seat seven times with his last stint from 2009 to 2014. BJP’s Satyapal Singh has been winning the seat since. His first victory from the seat came in the wake of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots involving Jats and Muslims.
While Baghpat is considered the traditional bastion of Charan Singh’s family, for the first time, no one from the family is contesting from the constituency.
Post the BJP-RLD alliance, the seat was given to the RLD and it has fielded Rajkumar Sangwan, a party loyalist who worked with Charan Singh. The SP, part of the national-level INDIA bloc, has fielded Amarpal Sharma, a Brahmin, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has given the ticket to Praveen Bainsla, who comes from the Gurjar community.
Speaking to ThePrint, Sangwan, who has been associated with the RLD for 40 years, asserted that “we have always been with the Muslims”.
“By joining the BJP, we are not standing against them but will ensure that no harm comes to them,” he added.
On the rift between Jats and Muslims, Sangwan said, “We do not feel that any vote has been lost from us.”
“We are moving forward with our ideology. We do not stand in favour of any injustice. People have faith in me and the RLD that we will take everyone along,” he added.
Political analysts believe that Baghpat is one of the most significant Lok Sabha seats in western Uttar Pradesh and is set for an interesting contest.
Shashi Kant Pandey, professor of political science at Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, told ThePrint: “Charan Singh and Ajit Singh won from the seat several times. Although Ajit Singh changed loyalties many times, since the time of Charan Singh, Jats, Gurjars and Muslims have made a deadly combination and supported the RLD.”
“Now that Jayant has changed loyalties and suddenly joined BJP, Muslims have no sympathy towards BJP and are even afraid of the party. There is a Muslim population of about 4 lakh in this seat which seems to be going towards SP this time, whereas BSP has turned the fight into a triangular contest by fielding a Gurjar candidate,” Pandey explained.
Baghpat’s electoral equation
Baghpat has an estimated 16.5 lakh voters, of which Muslims make up 4 lakh, Jats are 3.5 lakh, Brahmins 1.5 lakh, Gurjars 1.25 lakh, Dalits 1.8 lakh and Rajputs 1 lakh. The rest include smaller Other Backward Class (OBC) groups.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Jayant Chaudhary had contested from Baghpat against BJP’s Satyapal Singh and lost by a narrow margin of 23,000 votes. The Jats had then gone with the BJP in large numbers, which resulted in a dent in the RLD’s vote-bank.
This year, the farmer class in Baghpat, especially the Jat community, is said to be happy with the BJP-led central government’s announcement of awarding the Bharat Ratna for Charan Singh.
On Tuesday, a large number of Jats attended UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s rally at the famous Jat College in Baraut. Dharamveer Singh, a retired professor of the college, told ThePrint: “This is Jatland and the people here have always stood with Charan Singh. It does not matter with whom Jayant Chaudhary has gone with — people here are dedicated to him.”
Singh recalled the time when Charan Singh used to contest elections from Chhaprauli assembly seat and used to hold meetings in Jat College. “Choudhary saheb used to come just once and say chunav ko dekh lena tum sab (you people take care of the election). People have had unwavering faith in him,” he added.
However, there is a section among Jats that is unhappy with the BJP-RLD tie-up.
Ravindra Tewatiya, a Jat resident of Baraut, was angry with Jayant aligning with the BJP, a party the RLD has traditionally opposed. “Today, we have gone with the person against whom we have been fighting. Usne apna wajood nahi rakha. Charan Singh ki virasat ko nuksan pahuchaya. (Jayant didn’t keep his word. He hurt the legacy of Charan Singh). The workers are upset but they have no option. Many people from our community have joined BJP in the past years and Jayant has also joined it. So where should we go now?” he asked.
People of the Muslim community, who have so far stood with the RLD, were not seen at Adityanath’s rally. Muslims in the constituency cited statements by the Uttar Pradesh chief minister and by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to explain why they did not support the BJP.
Adityanath had alleged at the rally that the “Congress wanted to bring Sharia law in India and impose Taliban rule”. Modi too stoked a political controversy with his remarks alleging that the Congress is of the view that Muslims have the ‘first right’ to the nation’s resources.
According to Baghpat’s Muslim residents, with Jayant joining they BJP, they will opt for the SP and Congress combine.
‘Votes of small OBC castes will prove decisive’
By giving the ticket to Brahmin face Amarpal Sharma, the SP is trying to woo the Muslim and Brahmin community which together account for around 5.5 lakh votes in Baghpat. At the same time, the BSP has made the fight interesting by fielding a Gurjar candidate and is relying on Gurjar and Dalit votes, whose number is more than 3 lakh.
Professor Pandey told ThePrint: “Due to a triangular contest, the votes of small OBC castes will prove decisive. Like the last time, this time too there can be a close fight. The number of votes the BSP candidate gets will decide the margin of victory and defeat. The SP and BSP’s selection of candidates has made the contest interesting.”
Pandey, however, added that voters seemed silent and no “wave” was visible on the ground.
Since the riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013, the gap between Jats and Muslims has kept increasing. Although Ajit Singh and then Jayant tried to bridge the gap by holding Bhaichara Sammelans or brotherhood conferences, Jayant’s recent move has diminished all such efforts. “Jayant got success from Bhaichara Sammelans, but now that he has changed his loyalty, a large number of Muslim voters will be alienated from him,” Pandey said.
He added that with the departure of Muslims, the BJP’s vote will be an add-on to the RLD’s.
“The BJP has also made a dent in the votes of the Jat community. Jayant must have thought that if he joins the BJP, the Jat vote will be consolidated. But it remains to be seen whether due to the separation of Muslims, Jayant will be able to attract votes from the rest of the communities. How much can he bring?”
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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