Kairana: With the Rashtriya Lok Dal, or RLD, joining hands with the BJP for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, a divide has emerged between Muslim and Jat voters in western Uttar Pradesh’s Kairana, located in Shamli district. Unlike in 2019 when the two communities were united, this time the Muslims are aligned against the RLD.
The BJP has fielded its sitting MP Pradeep Chaudhary, a Gujjar, whose main challenger from the opposition INDIA bloc is 27-year-old Iqra Hasan, who is contesting on a Samajwadi Party (SP) ticket. The London-educated Hasan, whose grandfather, father, and mother have all represented the Kairana seat at different points, appears to have the Muslim community rallying behind her. Muslims make up over 40 percent and Jats and Gurjars around 14 percent of the 17-lakh-strong electorate in Kairana, where voting is set for the first phase on 19 April.
In the 2018 bypolls to Kairana, when Iqra’s mother Tabassum Hasan won on a ticket from Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD, Muslims and Jats were united in their mandate. In 2019, even though she lost, Tabassum secured 42.24 percent of the vote, with BJP’s Pradeep Chaudhary cornering around 50 percent.
However, with the RLD aligning with the BJP, this cohesion between the two communities is eroding.
Once best known as the birthplace of Ustad Abdul Karim Khan, who established the Kairana gharana of classical music, Kairana has been in the news in recent years due to an alleged “exodus” of Hindus and religious tension. The BJP made this its main issue during the 2017 and 2022 Kairana assembly elections. However, after the SP’s Nahid Hasan—Iqra’s brother—won both, it seems the BJP has changed its strategy and is not pushing the migration matter.
“For the first time, local issues are overshadowing the national narrative,” Iqra Hasan told ThePrint. “We are fighting elections on rural issues, health, education, dues of sugarcane farmers. The issue of migration was just BJP’s propaganda. In the last two elections, it ended with the BJP’s defeat.”
Political analysts concur that the “exodus” angle has lost its traction for the BJP.
“Migration is not a big issue here among the people. There was peace in Kairana even during the 2013 riots,” said Uttam Kumar, assistant professor of political science at Vijay Singh Pathik Government Post Graduate College in Kairana. “The BJP is also not making it an issue but instead trying to woo the people with the welfare schemes of the Modi government. This change has been seen in this seat.”
However, this does not mean that religious polarisation doesn’t exist in Kairana, Kumar pointed out, adding that this was clearly visible in the elections also. The alliance between the RLD, a primarily Jat party, and BJP has caused a divide. Jat voters may now lean towards the BJP while Muslims continue to support the SP.
Earlier, Jayant Chaudhary was also a credible face among Muslims, especially with his father Ajit Singh having made considerable efforts to bridge the gap that arose between Jats and Muslims in the area after the Muzaffarnagar riots in 2013. Jayant also organised many Bhaichara Sammelans to create Jat-Muslim unity. But with Jayant’s entry in the BJP’s field, Muslims’ trust has been once again broken.
Kumar, however, cautioned that there are multiple dynamics at play.
“There is a big Hindu class which BJP caters to, especially the lower OBCs,” Kumar said. “But there can be division among Jats also, and some are still with the SP.”
Kaviraj, professor of political science at Lucknow University, also noted that the BJP polarised Kairana on the basis of religion, which worked in its favour over the last decade. “But now the situation has changed. There is resentment among Jats also,” he said.
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How is Iqra making equations?
Iqra Hasan comes from a powerful political lineage in Kairana. Her grandfather Akhtar Hasan, father Munawwar Hasan, and mother Tabassum all served as Lok Sabha MPs. After studying at Delhi University and receiving a master’s degree at SOAS University of London, she jumped into politics two years ago when she campaigned for her brother Nahid Hasan during the 2022 assembly elections.
“I definitely come from a privileged family but I do not take unfair advantage of it. I am working hard and struggling every day on the ground,” she said. “Politics is still not easy for women. There is an appeal to aadhi aabadi (half of the population) to vote for a woman candidate. Give me a chance.”
These days, she’s hopping from one village public meeting to another, and concentrating her message on youth and women’s concerns. She talks about issues such as the Agnipath scheme, reservation, and paper leaks, proudly referring to herself as the daughter of Kairana.
But she also brings in broader issues at times. Last Sunday, for instance, she told a gathering that the BJP aims to win over 400 seats because they want to change the Constitution.
“To stop the way the BJP is snatching away the rights of the people, give a chance to the India Alliance, which is working to save the Constitution. Our slogan is PDA—we will work for the pichda, Dalit, aur alpsankhyak (underprivileged, Dalits, and minorities),” she said.
Iqra is shaken about Jayant Chaudhary’s alliance with the BJP—she considered him her “guru” and an important voice in western UP.
“Jayant Chaudhary’s alliance with the BJP is not something to be digested,” she told ThePrint. “He has stood with the farmers and the BJP is totally opposite.”
For her campaign, Hasan is carefully selecting which villages to visit. She is making sure she’s going not just to Muslim-majority ones villages, but also reaching out to Jats, Gurjars, Dalits, and OBCs. With Jats and Gurjars comprising 2 lakh and 1.3 lakh of the voting population in Kairana respectively, she’s making a concerted play for their support.
“I have the support of 36 biradari (),” she claimed. “I am going to everyone and telling them how important it is to oust the BJP. I hope people will rise above the party and vote for the issues this time.”
Yet, in this election, the Jat community is in a state of confusion. Krishna Pal, who attended Hasan’s recent meeting in Jhabiran, said that the community wasn’t sure where to throw its weight. “The RLD supported the farmers’ movement, while opposing the BJP, but now it has gone along with it. The party’s supporters are at a crossroads, wondering where to go.”
Meanwhile, the BJP is trying to win over the Jats by highlighting the Bharat Ratna that was awarded to Chaudhary Charan Singh earlier this year “Chaudhary Charan Singh was the one who gave the farmers the due respect in Independent India. And to show gratitude for this, PM Modi has given him the Bharat Ratna,” Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said at a rally in Kairana.
‘Security is a big issue’
For many people in Kairana, law-and-order is a major concern and the prevailing belief seems to be that the BJP is best equipped to provide it.
“Earlier there used to be snatching and looting every day. It was difficult for sisters and daughters to move freely, but now the situation has changed,” said Anil Pradhan, a resident of Toli village in Kairana.
While Pradhan praised Hasan’s thoughtful speeches and leadership qualities, he was less glowing about the Samajwadi Party. When it was in power, he said, the security situation was dismal.
“Iqra Hasan is coming to our village to ask for votes. Hum unka samman karenge lekin vote nahi denge (We will respect her, but we will not give our vote),” he said.
In his campaign, BJP’s Pradeep Chaudhary is banking on the policies and initiatives of the Modi and Yogi governments. “Vikas ke liye matdan kare (vote for the development),” his refrain has been.
But Hasan says that BJP only does politics of religion. “No major development work has been done here even though they have a ‘double engine’ government,” she claimed.
When ThePrint visited several villages in Kairana, residents complained that BJP MP Chaudhary rarely visited and was disconnected from them.
Another community whose voting preferences are in flux in Kairana are the Dalits, who have historically supported Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) but are now professing disenchantment
“Now we face great difficulty among the people,” said a BSP leader on condition of anonymity. “Although people still like Behenji (Mayawati), the schemes of the BJP government have made a lot of inroads among the SC community.”
Hasan is hoping she can fill the vacuum. She discusses the threats to the Constitution in Dalit settlements and visits Ravidas temples. “I am the daughter of this area,” she said at a public meeting. “Eid has passed but I want my Eidi on 19 April.”
(Edited by Asavari Singh)