New Delhi: Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad announced over the weekend that his party is set to fight all the Lok Sabha seats of the Union territory (UT) in 2024, a move that political analysts and leaders across parties believe is likely to dent Congress prospects, and help the BJP in Jammu region.
Azad was a longtime Congress leader before he quit the party in August 2022. His long association with the party is best summed up by his own words at a rally in Samba Sunday.
“I want to tell you all one more thing. Our party’s symbol is not ‘hand’ (Congress symbol). A lot of people think we are with Azad sahib and the symbol is ‘hand’. Azad sahib’s symbol is not ‘hand’,” he said.
“DPAP’s symbol is not ‘hand’,” he added, referring to the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), which he formed in September 2022.
“We will get the symbol one month before voting.”
The upcoming Lok Sabha election will be J&K’s first since its special status was revoked by the Modi government through the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, and it was carved into two Union territories (J&K and Ladakh).
It also comes as the wait for the UT’s assembly election continues — the last time assembly polls were held in J&K was in 2014 (it was a state at the time).
Making the contours of this election all the more different from previous polls is the delimitation exercise that has taken place since, which has given J&K its first-ever seat that straddles both Jammu and Kashmir regions — Anantnag-Rajouri.
The seat combines parts of BJP turf Jammu with those of Kashmir, a region that has been known to go with local parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the National Conference (NC).
In 2019, the BJP won the two seats in Jammu, securing nearly 60 percent of the vote in both. In Kashmir, all three seats went to the NC. Except for the Srinagar seat, victory margins were not very high (less than 7 percent of the votes).
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‘Azad not really a player in Kashmir’
Born on 7 March 1949, Azad hails from the Doda area of Jammu. He was the CM of the erstwhile state from 2005 to 2008.
The DPAP has yet to face an election at any level, and be recognised by the Election Commission. Not many expect it to win a seat but Azad is seen as a factor that might impact the prospects of other parties.
“The election that people in Jammu and Kashmir have been eagerly looking forward to, and the local parties preparing for, since 2019, is the one to the Union territory’s legislative assembly,” said J&K-based political analyst Zafar Choudhary.
“However, the Lok Sabha election coming ahead of assembly polls puts smaller regional parties, particularly those newly formed, such as Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP, in a difficult situation,” he added, saying these parties can nevertheless “alter the prospects of the key contenders locked in a straight contest”.
Zafar said the DPAP is likely to benefit the BJP in three of the UT’s five Lok Sabha seats: Jammu, Udhampur and Anantnag-Rajouri.
“In central (Srinagar) and north Kashmir (Baramulla), the DPAP participation will not be of much significance,” he added.
A similar view was shared by Prof. Rekha Chowdhary, an author and former professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Jammu.
“Azad’s party will have a major role in the Jammu region. In Kashmir, there are other players and I don’t think his party has much influence there,” she added. “Mostly, his influence is in Doda side in Udhampur seat. This is a BJP stronghold.”
A senior Congress leader from J&K, refusing to be named, agreed that the DPAP will eat into the Congress’ votebank, but argued that the major impact will only be in Udhampur.
“Mr Azad can impact only Udhampur seat. He might as well take 50,000-60,0000 votes from us. As far as Kashmir is concerned, neither the Congress nor he is a major player,” the leader added.
Regional parties PDP and NC shared the same assessment.
“As far as Kashmir is concerned, Azad sahib is not really a player here,” a senior PDP leader said. “He doesn’t have many electoral prospects in the Valley.”
A BJP member, however, said the DPAP will “severely impact the Congress vote” across parliamentary constituencies. “He is consolidating votes in Muslim-dominated areas across J&K, including in Jammu. And not just Jammu, he will impact the Congress votebank in Anantnag and Baramulla seats, where the party secured votes,” the leader added.
Anantnag-Rajouri seat, the real contest
Political analysts from J&K say the BJP is still ahead in both Udhampur and Jammu seats, adding that Anantnag-Rajouri offers the real challenge as well as opportunity.
Crucial to the election to this seat is the Modi government’s Constitution (Jammu and Kashmir) Scheduled Tribes Order (Amendment) Bill, 2023, which seeks to add four communities to the list of J&K’s STs, including the Paharis, thus assuring them of reservation benefits. The bill was introduced in the Lok Sabha in July 2023.
Anantnag-Rajouri consists of parts of the erstwhile Anantnag seat (which spanned the districts of Anantnag, Shopian, Pulwama and Gulmarg) in Kashmir, and Poonch and Rajouri districts in Jammu.
While 35 percent of Rajouri’s population is Hindu, the number is 7 percent in Poonch, and this section is expected to vote for the BJP.
The Paharis consist of both Hindus and Muslims, and comprise an estimated 56 percent of the population in both Rajouri and Poonch.
In October 2022, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had promised reservation for the Pahari-speaking population.
The Anantnag-Rajouri seat is being seen by the BJP as a chance to make inroads into the Kashmir Valley. BJP leaders, however, say it’s not just the reservation, but development in the state and “peace” will help the party gain votes across seats and better their tally.
In 2019, the erstwhile Anantnag seat — comprising parts of south Kashmir, prone to low voter turnouts — was won by the NC with 40,100 votes. The Congress came second with 33,500 votes, and the PDP was third with 30,500 votes.
Political analysts say the voting is set to increase in south kashmir this time, and the Opposition would want to consolidate this vote to counter the BJP’s plans for Anantnag-Rajouri.
If the DPAP takes away the Muslim votes in Rajouri-Poonch, they add, it can advantage the BJP.
“If Azad fights alone (without allies), the Anantnag-Rajouri seat will be impacted because the BJP is trying to be a major player there,” said Rekha Chowdhury.
“With the Pahari reservation bill, the BJP is looking at that constituency. If the ST bill in favour of Paharis passes, then the BJP becomes a major player in the Anantnag-Rajouri seat. In that situation, Azad’s candidature (or his party’s candidature) will be again beneficial for the BJP because Azad’s votes will make a dent in the chances of the NC and the Congress,” she added.
“Traditionally”, she said, the “Congress has been strong in Rajouri-Poonch belt, followed by the NC”.
Zafar Choudhary said “the Anantnag-Rajouri seat is the real bet in the upcoming elections, and also has the potential of redefining the battle of ideologies”.
“The BJP has been roping in the Pahari speaking community on its side,” he said. “Now, all eyes are on the short budget session. If the reservation bill is passed, then the BJP stands good chances in the Anantnag-Rajouri seat.”
What if the bill is not passed?
In the 18 assembly segments that form the Anantnag-Rajouri seat, the NC, the PDP and the Congress “have been the traditional competitors on 12 to 15 segments”, said Zafar.
“Trends of the last four Lok Sabha elections suggest that no party in this region has been exclusively favoured by any community,” he added.
In case the bill is not passed, both the analysts said, the BJP is unlikely to be a strong competitor on the seat.
“In the absence of the reservation bill and considering Opposition parties fight separately, the National Conference can be seen ahead of everyone else on three seats (north and central Kashmir, and Anantnag-Rajouri), the BJP on two of Jammu,” said Zafar.
For the BJP, he added, a win in Anantnag-Rajouri is not just about adding to its tally, but also holds an important advantage by way of narrative.
“From the ideological point of view, it is absolutely necessary for the BJP to bag Anantnag-Rajouri to establish that it is halfway into Kashmir despite all the events of the last six years,” he said. “However, from the security point of view, the BJP may have to rethink.”
There is no clarity yet on how the election battle will turn out, and who the players will be.
The Congress, the NC and the PDP are all partners under the INDIA alliance, but the bloc is under strain in some states like West Bengal and Punjab, where the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), respectively, have ruled out a joint contest with the Congress.
Congress leaders in J&K are expecting to fight only two seats of Jammu, although they say they would like to throw their hat in the ring for Anantnag-Rajouri as well.
However, sources in the National Conference say the party is adamant that “there should be no discussion” on the three seats that it won last time. This suggests the seat-sharing talks in the bloc could get choppy, with the PDP being a player in these pockets too
(Edited by Sunanda Ranjan)
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