Thiruvananthapuram: At Indira Bhavan, the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) headquarters in Thiruvananthapuram, former defence minister AK Antony is bracing for the battle ahead in Kerala. For now, it’s anybody’s guess how it will all play out for the Congress. “What is your take (on the election)?” he asks.
This election season is different. For one, the Congress bastion of Thiruvananthapuram, held by Shashi Tharoor since 2009, is under siege from BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar, the Union Minister of State for Electronics and IT. When Congress veteran Cherian Philip meanders into the conversation and speculates about potential damage to certain segments of Tharoor’s base, Antony is quick to berate him: “Don’t say that, Cherian, please don’t!”
The 83-year-old Antony has a lot on his plate, especially with the BJP fielding his son Anil Antony from the Pathanamthitta seat. The prospect of the father campaigning for the Congress against his son is a hot topic of debate in Kerala. “Well, I am not in the shape for it… health permitting, let’s see,” the senior Antony says, his smile intact. Both father and son campaigned for their respective parties last September during the Puthuppally by-election, necessitated by the passing of AK Antony’s longtime compatriot Oommen Chandy last year. Back then, Antony concluded his emotional speech with a passionate appeal. “The margin of victory should make the Marxists tremble,” he’d said, his voice quaking dramatically, to loud cheers.
But more than Puthuppally or any other seat, it is Thiruvananthapuram that is turning into a close contest for the Congress in Kerala. And it appears to be the best chance for the BJP to open its account in Kerala with Chandrasekhar giving a tough fight to Tharoor, whose popularity with traditional voters in the coastal belt has taken a hit over his perceived lack of support to those protesting against the Adani Vizhinjam Port.
And there is, of course, a third candidate—Pannyan Raveendran of the Communist Party of India (CPI)—who may turn out to be a dark horse.
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‘Unbeatable’ Tharoor?
For a long time, Tharoor, the longest-serving MP from Thiruvananthapuram, has been considered unbeatable in his constituency. Indeed, even veteran BJP leader O Rajagopal, the first party leader to win an assembly seat in Kerala, attested to Tharoor’s staying power. “I doubt that anyone else will get an opportunity to win (from Thiruvananthapuram) in the near future,” he’d said at an event this January, although he backtracked later.
But there have been close calls. Rajagopal himself came very close to dislodging Tharoor in 2014, when the latter was dogged by allegations around the death of his wife Sunanda Pushkar. And now Tharoor also has a three-term anti-incumbency to deal with.
In March, when the BJP announced it would field Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Tharoor had told reporters he was “very confident”. But earlier this month, he conceded in an interview to ANI that the BJP was a “strong player” in Thiruvananthapuram.
There is little doubt that Chandrasekhar has been paying close attention to preparing the turf. Well before he landed, his team visited the city, conducting surveys and identifying issues to develop into campaign planks.
Chandrasekhar may appeal to a segment of Tharoor’s voter base in the constituency, including upper middle-class sections, professionals, the youth, and the Nairs. Some vote for Tharoor in the absence of an equally palatable BJP candidate, though they are otherwise Modi supporters. Moreover, Chandrasekhar’s status as a sitting Union minister has queered Tharoor’s pitch.
Currently, it’s a waiting game. And Chandrasekhar is not the only BJP challenger who has appeared to have an advantage in this constituency. In the 2019 election, BJP candidate Kummanam Rajasekharan was even predicted to win by an Asianet survey.
In the end, however, Tharoor won by a huge margin of 99,989 votes against the second-placed Rajasekharan, in contrast with the 15K margin in 2014. It didn’t go unnoticed that the Left vote share was down to almost 25 per cent, its lowest-ever in the constituency, which invariably led to the conclusion that some amount of cross-voting took place.
Meanwhile, Rajeev Chandrasekhar seems to be well aware of these dynamics going by his meticulous campaign strategy.
Unlike in 2014 or 2019, Tharoor faces different challenges this time, including voter fatigue. Chandrasekhar (and the Left) have been actively promoting the notion that Tharoor’s three terms have not delivered the expected development for the capital city. On his part, Tharoor has been quick to reject such claims and has come out with a 70-page ‘progress card’, which lists his interventions and the various development projects he helped initiate, handhold and complete. The Congress cadres have been going door-to-door distributing the booklet along with other campaign materials.
However, the Congress campaign is yet to go full throttle, with shortage of funds being a common refrain among party workers.
BJP’s growing visibility
At Thiruvananthapuram’s Valiathura Port, where the pier stands in ruins, Congress booth committee president Sanal Pathrose doesn’t hold back about a purported paucity of funds.
“We got only Rs 1,000 per booth this time, instead of the Rs 10,000 in 2019,” he says. “Unlike the BJP and Left, we have been rendered cash-strapped. However, we are hoping that we will get more installments in the coming days.”
A simple count of the hoardings for Rajeev Chandrasekhar and Tharoor across the city clearly shows that the former is dominating Thiruvananthapuram’s skyline. Then there is his tagline, Ini Karyam Nadakkum (now things will move), which cleverly implies that nothing was being done in the constituency until now.
There’s something more to Chandrasekhar’s flex boards—in most of these hoardings Prime Minister Narendra Modi gives him company, and they cut the same figure and size in them.
While other BJP candidates also feature the Prime Minister in their posters, the matching imagery here seems deliberate. This was a point raised with Chandrasekhar in an interview with ThePrint, and he wasn’t amused.
The BJP’s election committee office is centrally located at Bakery Junction, directly opposite the Reserve Bank of India, unlike the Congress office which moved from a prime location in 2019 to Kochar Road this time.
At the BJP office, district president VV Rajesh and Ashokan Kulanada are in charge, and the likes of former ambassador TP Sreenivasan and Col (Retd) S Dinny flit in and out.
Chandrasekhar’s schedule seems to be jampacked, and he can barely speak to people waiting to see him. And he seems to lack the kind of flexibility that Kerala politicians are generally associated with. Another aspect of the campaign that stands out is that, unlike 2019, the RSS no longer seems to be running the show. Even RSS figures who are generally known to throw their weight around are seen making themselves useful.
The BJP state headquarters— the newly renovated Mararji Bhavan— also bustles with activity. The building even has a special and rather opulent room earmarked for the chief minister— it’s an unmistakable signal of the party’s confidence, especially considering it doesn’t even have an MLA in Kerala currently.
Coastal conundrum
Along Valiathura beach, bright BJP flags can be seen fluttering in the wind, unlike other coastal regions. Congress’ Pathrose has a ready explanation for it.
“Around 50 members of this parish have recently joined the BJP,” he claims. “The current parish priest himself is a BJP sympathiser.”
Pathrose alleges that the BJP has been pulling no stops in trying to breach Tharoor’s strong vote base in coastal regions, including using its money power. “But people in the coastal regions are Congress voters by default, so even the ‘Tamil Nadu model’ of splurging money won’t work here,” he adds.
In 2014, it was the coastal regions that came to Tharoor’s rescue. Back then, O Rajagopal got considerable leads over Tharoor in the Nemom, Kazhakkottam, Vattiyoorkkavu, and Thiruvananthapuram segments, and it was the coastal votes from the Kovalam constituency that helped Tharoor sail through after trailing throughout the counting.
This time around, however, Tharoor is facing a backlash from a section of those very coastal voters. Many are angry that he did not back their demand to halt construction on the Adani-run Vizhinjam international seaport until a study on the project’s impact on coastal erosion was completed.
“Our dispute is not with Congress, it is with Tharoor,” says Peter (he uses just the one name), who was part of the protests that went on for months on end at Vizhinjam. “But we won’t vote for the BJP either. The BJP and the RSS folks created a lot of issues for us during our protests.”
However, even the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left government in the state had slapped many cases against the protesters, including the clergy. So, would they consider voting for the Left candidate Pannyan Raveendran?
“Well, why not?” retorts Peter. “While we have issues with the ruling CPI(M), Pannyan Raveendran (of the CPI) is acceptable to us.”
In 2022, both the CPI(M) district secretary Anavoor Nagappan and BJP district president VV Rajesh had participated in a march led by the Save Vizhinjam Port action council. In contrast, the CPI had taken a position that was deemed more sympathetic to the fisherfolk.
“That doesn’t mean we are going to vote for Pannyan en masse,” Peter says. “There is still time, isn’t it? We have the choice of selecting NOTA or we might even vote for the SUCI (Communist) candidate S Mini to register our protest.”
Another man joins the conversation: “Not all of us will vote against Tharoor. But yes, he will end up losing some percentage of the votes here.”
A younger group of people at Vizhinjam harbour offer a slightly different point of view. “By the time the election draws near our elders will get over their bitterness towards Tharoor. You see, we are a sentimental people. But we don’t want to humiliate Tharoor either,” says a man asking to be identified only as Jonson.
Congress booth committee president Pathrose has an antidote to Tharoor’s coastal woes. “Let’s say either Rahul or Priyanka Gandhi comes here and does a road show with Tharoor…that will change this sentiment overnight as the people here are essentially Congress voters,” he says. “And the Gandhis are a big draw here.”
Church factor
At the Thiruvananthapuram Latin Archbishop’s House in Vellayambalam, Father Eugene Pereira—the face of the Vizhinjam protests—openly criticises Tharoor for “letting the fisherfolk down despite these very people being his pillar of support during tough times.”
The priests of the Latin Church, unlike those of the Syrian Church in Kerala, lead more Spartan lives and are deeply integrated with the laypeople. “All of us here hail from the fishing community,” Father Pereira explains. “If we don’t stand with our people, who else will?”
While the state government has extended an olive branch to the Vizhinjam protesters by withdrawing several cases against them, the Latin Church hasn’t softened its stance. “The case against me is still very much active,” Pereira says. “The state government acted prejudicially against us throughout.”
The Latin community, in general, also has no love lost for the BJP.
After the poll notification, a circular critical of the BJP was read out in Latin parishes across Thiruvananthapuram. The Church has also been vocal in its solidarity with the Muslim community on the Citizenship Amendment Act.
Regarding who the Latin community would vote for, Pereira says they will take a call decided after a “town hall” where they plan to state their case to all three candidates—Tharoor, Chandrasekhar, and Pannyan.
“It’s true that a large chunk of our votes has traditionally gone to the Congress. But Tharoor should not take our votes for granted anymore,” Pereira adds.
Johny Chekkitta, district president of the Kerala Congress, offered a different take. He dismissed the prospect of Tharoor losing votes in the coastal belt. “See, Tharoor can at the most lose some percentage of votes in Vizhinjam. But the coastal belt in Thiruvananthapuram covers five (assembly) constituencies and that base is intact.”
However, though Chekkitta rules out the BJP’s chances in the coastal belt, he too admits to the lack of funds hobbling the Congress campaign.
At the Congress election committee office on Kochar Road, a party veteran recalls how he and acting KPCC president MM Hassan ended up seeking donations from CPI (M)-affiliated Centre for Indian Trade Unions (CITU) workers at Palayam Connemara market.
“They almost froze for a couple of seconds, as if they didn’t know how to react. And then they donated one by one,” recounts the leader, speaking under condition of anonymity. “Someone from behind passed a joke that they were only contributing to the INDIA bloc.”
The BJP is also doing whatever it can to undermine Tharoor’s dominance in the Neyyattinkara and Parassala segments, where Church of South India (CSI) votes are key, according to Congress leaders. They allege overtures were made to their corporator Ansajitha Ressel to run as an independent candidate against Tharoor in order to split votes.
There are also similar allegations around the near-candidacy of Shirly Rasalam, wife of former CSI bishop Dharmaraj Rasalam, whose nomination papers were ultimately rejected. Dharmaraj Rasalam has recently faced scrutiny from central agencies in a money laundering case.
According to 2019 election data, Hindus make up over 76 per cent of the voter base in Thiruvananthapuram, with Christians and Muslims constituting about 14 per cent and 9 per cent respectively.
An old stalwart returns
With the high-profile contest between Tharoor and Chandrasekhar, CPI candidate Pannyan Raveendran is sometimes overlooked. He was the incumbent when Tharoor won the seat in 2009, although he did not contest that year or in the two subsequent general elections. He is seen to be reluctant to contest even this time.
Initially, Binoy Viswam was slated to challenge Tharoor, but he had to take over as CPI state secretary following the untimely death of Kanam Rajendran, leading the party to prevail upon 78-year-old Pannyan to contest.
At the Left election committee office located bang opposite the state government secretariat, Pannyan is busy among a crowd of young people. Almost all of them are from the CPI ranks and there is practically no one from the CPI (M).
“We actually have a problem of plenty, unlike the Congress,” brags a leader of the All India Youth Federation, the youth wing of the CPI.
A fellow leftist offered a different take— that CPI(M) cadres have largely shifted their focus to the neighbouring Attingal constituency, “where they have a much better chance” of winning than in Thiruvananthapuram. Attingal is a prestige battle for the CPI(M) since district secretary V Joy is contesting from there.
That doesn’t mean Pannyan is a pushover. He is gaining traction among traditional Left voters by adhering to the principles once championed by past communist leaders in Kerala.
Despite being active in the state capital for four decades, Pannyan doesn’t own a house in Thiruvananthapuram.
His humble dinner at ‘Kuzhikada’—a small eatery at the model school junction—is a set dosa and a banana, washed down with a glass of black tea. As he eats the sliced fruit, Pannyan vehemently rejects Tharoor’s charge that he didn’t contest in 2009 because of his poor track record. “For me electoral politics is not everything”, he says.
He is at pains to convey that the election in Thiruvananthapuram is not a two-horse race between Tharoor and Rajeev Chandrasekhar. “The fight is actually between Tharoor and me,” he tells ThePrint.
But Pannyan is an underdog given that the Left is facing a battle of perception in Thiruvananthapuram, having finished third in the last couple of Lok Sabha elections. Anti-incumbency against the state government is another challenge.
The fourth recognised candidate is S Mini, representing the SUCI (Communist). She is contesting “to dislodge the BJP and its corporate policies and to protest against the growing disparity between the haves and the have nots,” according to her.
Meanwhile, although 67-year-old Tharoor has dropped some hints that this could be his last election, he remains a formidable force in Thiruvananthapuram, effortlessly charming people with a smile and a wave. And unlike earlier, Tharoor has the full backing of the different Congress factions, burnished by his status as a Congress Working Committee member. Whether he can retain the seat by sheer dint of his personality, or if Rajeev Chandrasekhar can pull off the mother of all upsets, will become clear only on 4 June.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)