Mumbai: Will the voter continue to see those wielding the ‘bow and arrow’ symbol — albeit without a Thackeray behind it — as the real Shiv Sena? This is one of the many questions spurred by the Election Commission’s ruling in favour of the Sena faction led by Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde.
In what came as a major setback for the Uddhav Thackeray group, the EC in an order Friday allotted the name ‘Shiv Sena’ and the party symbol ‘bow and arrow’ to the Shinde faction on the basis of its legislative strength.
As for Uddhav Thackeray, political commentators say he faces a tough battle ahead, one that will be fought more on grounds of perception rather than legality. They, however, add that EC’s decision will have wide-ranging implications for both factions projecting themselves as the real Sena with the dispute between them still pending in the Supreme Court.
Elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) to be held later this year will be the first litmus test for both factions post the EC order.
In that backdrop, political analyst Prakash Bal tells ThePrint, “What is next for Thackeray is that he needs to concentrate on BMC polls and for that, he needs to be on the ground and visit every shakha, ward to shake up the organisational structure which might have been impacted by this decision.”
Political analyst Sanjay Jog concurs. “It is definitely going to be a challenge for Uddhav Thackeray to rejuvenate, revive, and reach out to voters and traditional Shiv Sainiks saying that we will have to fight back. It is a circus that he will have to do,” says Jog.
On Saturday, Thackeray called a meeting of all MLAs and MPs of the Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) faction at Matoshree, his residence in Mumbai, to discuss strategy following the EC order.
“We are not really worried about voters. Sympathy will get transferred into votes. But what we should worry about is democracy,” Sena (UBT) MP Arvind Sawant tells ThePrint. Sawant was referring to the idea that the EC’s decision to allot the Sena’s name and symbol to the Shinde faction might help the Thackeray group garner sympathy votes.
On the other hand, Maharashtra minister Deepak Kesarkar from the Shinde faction says, “What Uddhav Thackeray is saying is all lies and lies cannot sustain for a long time. Uddhav Thackeray made changes to Shiv Sena’s constitution which EC termed undemocratic. They did not even convey changes made in the constitution to the EC in a proper manner.”
He adds that the people will support the Shinde faction as they “have realised we are the government and that is working, and we will gain strength”.
Refuting the claim, Sawant says the Thackeray group had submitted all relevant documents and affidavits to the EC. “If that is the case, why did you make us do such a cumbersome job of submitting these documents? While the case is going on in the Supreme Court, why did the Election Commission put out the decision in such a hurry,” he asks.
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Tough road ahead for Thackeray
Within hours of the EC issuing its order, former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray held a press conference where he said the Sena faction led by him would move the Supreme Court challenging the commission’s decision. Terming the order “undemocratic”, Thackeray remarked, “Why did the EC create a farce of asking us to submit all affidavits? And when we submitted them, the commission did not even care to go through them.”
Dubbing the EC order “dangerous for democracy”, Thackeray also said Prime Minister Narendra Modi “should declare from the Red Fort that there is no more democracy in the country”.
Bal says he doesn’t think the Shiv Sena (UBT) should concentrate more on the legal battle. “Frankly, it is the perception of people. There is currently a perception that there is injustice against the Thackerays and the more they are targeted, this feeling will get accentuated,” he explains.
However, this does not mean that the road ahead will be a cakewalk for the Thackeray faction, which has been allowed by the EC to continue to use the name Shiv Sena (UBT) and the ‘flaming torch’ symbol until the 26 February Chinchwad and Kasba Peth assembly bypolls.
Political analyst Hemant Desai says, “It is true that Thackeray will have to take up a new symbol, but in today’s day and age, this is not a big thing as a new name and symbol can be marketed and publicised within hours and days, the way Shiv Sena (UBT) and flaming torch symbol reached people during Andheri East assembly bypoll in November last year.”
What next for Shinde faction
Shinde and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on the other hand, are hoping that the traditional Sena voter will press the bow and arrow symbol in all upcoming elections as they have been doing for decades.
“Certainly, this will benefit us because we are with Balasaheb’s thoughts and guidance and Uddhav ji sacrificed it to join hands with the Congress and the NCP,” Kesarkar tells ThePrint.
Commentators believe legitimacy is one factor vis-a-vis which the Shinde faction may have an edge.
As Desai puts it, “With this decision, Shinde faction has been legitimised and what he will try to ingrain is that they are the real Sena and are carrying forward Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy and they also got the party’s original symbol and name.”
Shinde may also have an upper hand in the battle of perception owing to Thackeray’s image as a not-so accessible leader who does not step out of Matoshree much.
Jog says, “The real challenge for Thackeray is to convince voters to come to him and he will need the support of like minded parties. He also needs to increase his communication and correct his messaging to voters in order to take on the BJP and Shinde who will attack him on Hindutva.”
Thackeray, says Jog, needs to reinvent his image and re-energise the organisational structure for even the hardcore Sena voter to back him.
As for the Shinde faction, the first thing it needs to do in the near future is conduct internal party elections. Hinting that the Shinde faction is headed in this direction, Kesarkar says, “Yes, we will take up the election in the party and will discuss when to do so.”
In 2018, Sena’s office bearers had nominated Uddhav Thackeray as party president – a decision the Shinde faction challenged before the EC. The commission in its order Friday termed the party’s constitution (amended last in 2018) that allowed the party president to nominate office bearers who, in turn, elect him as the chief, “undemocratic”.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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