The four likely scenarios for Jammu & Kashmir after the BJP pulled out of the alliance government.
New Delhi: With the BJP pulling out of the Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP-BJP alliance government in Jammu and Kashmir, it is curtains for what was the first truly composite government in the trouble-torn Himalayan state.
Mufti’s PDP is entirely a Kashmir party while the BJP has no base in the Kashmir region and many had termed the alliance unnatural.
But now that Mufti has submitted her resignation, here are some options on how events could pan out in the state:
Governor’s Rule: While it is President’s Rule in the rest of the country, due to its special status, J&K has Governor’s Rule in the absence of a democratically-elected government. This is the most likely option, at least in the short term. Governor N.N. Vohra has ruled the state earlier too – most recently for a few months after the death of Mehbooba’s father and previous CM Mufti Mohammed Sayeed in January 2016 – and will be able to provide an alternative to a popular government. Vohra is expected to send a report to the President later tonight and then look at the available options. Since there is little possibility of an alternative emerging anytime soon to lay claim to power, the President may ask Vohra to run the administration. This would also mean that Vohra will be granted an extension beyond his term which ends later this month.
PDP-NC-Congress stake claim to form a government: This option is also open, especially in view of the proposal that was pitched immediately after the 2014 Assembly elections that the PDP-NC-Congress – which together have 68 seats in the 87-member house – come together to form the government. Some leaders in the Congress are still hoping for this plan to come through. But, with Mehbooba having lost a lot of her political capital, why would the National Conference play ball? NC leader and former chief minister Omar Abdullah would be more than happy to face early elections rather than come to the aid of the beleaguered PDP, its main rival in Kashmir. But, then again, nothing is impossible in politics.
Mehbooba continues as care-taker CM until fresh elections: This option looks very bleak. With the annual Amarnath Yatra scheduled to get underway later this month, the Centre would want Governor’s Rule rather than Mehbooba at the helm. Also, Mehbooba may not want to continue as caretaker CM in order to start re-connecting with her party’s core constituency so as to be ready to face elections whenever they are held.
Early elections: For the last almost two years, the Centre and the state government have been stalling byelections to the Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency, which fell vacant when Mehbooba resigned to take over as chief minister. With the security situation in Kashmir having deteriorated almost to the early-1990s level, it is difficult to see elections being held anytime soon. Even the BJP, which has lost a lot of its political capital in the last four years, will want elections to be delayed as much as possible so as to try and regain some of its base. Jammu & Kashmir, as a result, is likely to be under Governor’s Rule for at least the next six months.
ThePrint had previously reported on the possibility of a split in BJP-PDP alliance.
पढ़ें हिंदी में: भाजपा-पीडीपी के तलाक़ के बाद जम्मू-कश्मीर में अब आगे क्या