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What happens next in Jammu and Kashmir?

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The four likely scenarios for Jammu & Kashmir after the BJP pulled out of the alliance government.

New Delhi: With the BJP pulling out of the Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP-BJP alliance government in Jammu and Kashmir, it is curtains for what was the first truly composite government in the trouble-torn Himalayan state.

Mufti’s PDP is entirely a Kashmir party while the BJP has no base in the Kashmir region and many had termed the alliance unnatural.

But now that Mufti has submitted her resignation, here are some options on how events could pan out in the state:

Governor’s Rule: While it is President’s Rule in the rest of the country, due to its special status, J&K has Governor’s Rule in the absence of a democratically-elected government. This is the most likely option, at least in the short term. Governor N.N. Vohra has ruled the state earlier too – most recently for a few months after the death of Mehbooba’s father and previous CM Mufti Mohammed Sayeed in January 2016 – and will be able to provide an alternative to a popular government. Vohra is expected to send a report to the President later tonight and then look at the available options. Since there is little possibility of an alternative emerging anytime soon to lay claim to power, the President may ask Vohra to run the administration. This would also mean that Vohra will be granted an extension beyond his term which ends later this month.

PDP-NC-Congress stake claim to form a government: This option is also open, especially in view of the proposal that was pitched immediately after the 2014 Assembly elections that the PDP-NC-Congress – which together have 68 seats in the 87-member house – come together to form the government. Some leaders in the Congress are still hoping for this plan to come through. But, with Mehbooba having lost a lot of her political capital, why would the National Conference play ball? NC leader and former chief minister Omar Abdullah would be more than happy to face early elections rather than come to the aid of the beleaguered PDP, its main rival in Kashmir. But, then again, nothing is impossible in politics.

Mehbooba continues as care-taker CM until fresh elections: This option looks very bleak. With the annual Amarnath Yatra scheduled to get underway later this month, the Centre would want Governor’s Rule rather than Mehbooba at the helm. Also, Mehbooba may not want to continue as caretaker CM in order to start re-connecting with her party’s core constituency so as to be ready to face elections whenever they are held.

Early elections: For the last almost two years, the Centre and the state government have been stalling byelections to the Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency, which fell vacant when Mehbooba resigned to take over as chief minister. With the security situation in Kashmir having deteriorated almost to the early-1990s level, it is difficult to see elections being held anytime soon. Even the BJP, which has lost a lot of its political capital in the last four years, will want elections to be delayed as much as possible so as to try and regain some of its base. Jammu & Kashmir, as a result, is likely to be under Governor’s Rule for at least the next six months.

ThePrint had previously reported on the possibility of a split in BJP-PDP alliance.

पढ़ें हिंदी में: भाजपा-पीडीपी के तलाक़ के बाद जम्मू-कश्मीर में अब आगे क्या

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6 COMMENTS

  1. Have Governor’s rule. Retire N Vohra as cGovernor and appoint Lt GenHasnain or Maj Gen Bakshi in his place. Remove Art 370.. Make Indian controlled as any other State of India. Accept POK as part of Pakistan. Declare present line of control as international border with Pak.. Request China to bring about this change and accept their one belt – one road scheme. Allow trade between our part and POK If Pak or some section of Kashmiri’s do not accept it , it is their problem. Let us enforce it sternly.
    Maj. Gen C K Karumbaya (Retd).

  2. लोकप्रिय सरकार
    बने। पीडीपी बाहर
    से समर्थन दे।

  3. what i have seen is that the decision by pandit nehru to enact law that kashmir is one place where non kashmiris should not settle in kashmir is outdated ,irrelevant and not conducive to safe living for hindus or for that matter moslems in kashmir ,what is required is open kashmir to non kashmiris ,bring in a few people from kerala ,bengal and most impt marwaris from rajasthan ,give them both crpf ,army and jjand k police protection if necessary bu creating enclAves ,then rtrouble makers like the hurriyat ,jklp and such fellows will shift and run into pakistan occupied kashmir only to find that their arse will get blown up by the chinese as china doesnt want anyone to stop the cpec as cpec is very impt to chinas growth and access to energy in nature of middle eastern crude ,gas etc andthey will thrash the shit out of terrorists if they find terrorists or those abetting criminals and crime are detrimental to chinas interests pakistan will turn a blind eye as their only ally even today is china,even saudi arabia doesnt want pakistan or pakistanis ,even in london i found only the thakurs and the patels doing the talking as most business is now controlled by indians ,bangladeshis and srilankans it must be so for the rest of england aswell so indian kashmir is india ,pok is pakistans, aksai chin chinas, that will settle indias border issues also ,those who dont want to lay down arms ,give up militancy and integrate with mainstream indian society are most welcome to leave india ,once they give up indian citizenship they will not be accepted back ,this is he way forward ,open up kashmir to non kashmiris thro legislation by supreme court intervention and govt compliance if this issue is to be settled once and for all ,kindest regards to all the people who laid down their lives in a meaningless battle which is going nowhere and a gross waste of time and energy,and valuable ,let mehbooba continue As caretaker chief minister with help from central govt and state govts

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